Ernesto Remnants

[Coredesat]

I agree, a 992 mb TD? I don't think so.

[Jim Cantore]

I agree, a 992 mb TD? I don't think so.

Katrina was a TD at 985mb but that was a completely diffrent animal.

I do agree though, 40-50mph winds are being reported all over in Virginia.

[WindRunner]

I'm sorry, but with all due respect towards the NHC, that is crap at its finest. I'm staring at obs that are reporting TS force winds less then 50nm from the center in a major metro area of almost 1 million people! Please, where is the sense in this?

[Jim Cantore]

LOL! TWC just showed a current satelitte loop..... From tuesday

[Sanibel]

992 Extratropical?

[drezee]

Let's see how bold the NHC is at 15z. They want to get rid of Ernesto more than anything. The 12z models were initialized at 35kts when 52 kt sustained winds were being recorded off shore and 50 mph sustained winds onshore (gusts to 76 mph). Currently 2-min winds are still sustained over 50 mph in more than one place. Will they ignore the data and say it is 35 mph or...

Will they say that the strong wind is not a part of the circulation and it due to the pressure gradient...

Let's see...

I would look for this phrase in some way….

The current winds being experienced offshore are due to the pressure gradient and not indicative of the strength of Ernesto.

Down to a TD at 11 and it's the final NHC advisory!

RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT ERNESTO HAS WEAKENED
AND IS NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO AND A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
THE NORTH IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS WELL TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC.

Man...they are so predictable...

[Trugunzn]

Look at this loop and it seems like going NE or ENE. But I think the center is going North? Is it seperating?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/loop-avn.html

[milfordmawx]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=YKRV2


winds still 60mph sustained at this station and gust to 76 mph

Chesapeake Light gusts to 62mph as well. Here's a look at all the Chesapeake Bay buoy's http://www.pdfamily.com/weather/buoy/CHBbuoy.php

[terstorm1012]

Yes guys, what you are seeing is the interaction with the pressure gradient. We see this a lot with storms in this part of the world.

see Isabel, the 1933 Chesapeake Storm, et cetera. All caused high winds far beyond the storm center and even after being downgraded.

this is an impressive wind gradient IMO.

[Trugunzn]

still looks well over land:

[stormtruth]

Norfolk, which has already had lots of rain, is about to get even heavier rain

[Trugunzn]

Look at this loop and it seems like going NE or ENE. But I think the center is going North? Is it seperating?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/loop-avn.html

anybody think its East of the Track?

[terstorm1012]

I do trugunzn. Hopefully a promet will pop up shortly. I had trouble yesterday seeing what would force this thing to the north and northwest.

[Brent]

Look at this loop and it seems like going NE or ENE. But I think the center is going North? Is it seperating?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/loop-avn.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/avn-l.jpg

anybody think its East of the Track?

Not really.

Here's the projected path at 5pm yesterday, the 2pm Friday position is very very close to where it is now, so it may be a little ahead of the track.

http://i26.photobucket.com/albums/c131/ ... rnesto.gif

Now, if it doesn't turn more to the NW it will be.

[terstorm1012]

ah ok Brent, thanks.

What I need to do is get some analysis charts, to my untrained eye I don't know what is going to make it go north and west when where I am we're on the north side of the stationary front.

[wxman57]

I agree, I was amazed when the NHC downgraded Ernesto last hour. While the strongest sustained winds over Virgina are in the 20-25kt range, there is at least one 35kt sustained wind being reported over southwestern Maryland and many 35-40 kt winds in/near Chesapeake Bay. there may be some question about the winds offshore Delaware/Maryland - whether they're from the circulation of Ernesto or due to an increasing pressure gradient caused by the strong high to the north. But this is certainly as atypical of the NHC as their failure to call Ernesto a hurricane yesterday.

Something is definitely "up" at the NHC. Here's a recent surface plot of the region:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ernesto79.gif

P.S. I'm even more amazed that the NHC issued the final advisory on what looks like a tropical storm over eastern NC.....

[MiamiensisWx]

In my opinion, I still believe Ernesto is still a low-end (45MPH to 50MPH roughly) tropical storm. Although the winds further out are likely due to the pressure gradient, the winds closer to the center may not be entirely due to the gradient. This is evidenced in similar past storms under similar synoptics. It still is rather puzzling why this was just downgraded to a depression.

[terstorm1012]

Perhaps we're seeing a phase a-la Hazel? Just a thought.

[Stephanie]

The intensity of a storm isn't determined by knots but by MPH. MPH is 15% higher than the knot speed. If anything, it definately is a WELL DEVELOPED tropical depression. It sure looks like he's riding the coastline instead making his left hand turn inland. He's also barely moved.

Ernesto has got to go down in the books as the most confounding storm for the meteorological industry.

[terstorm1012]

well looking at radar it does look to me like the center of the storm is moving northward.

the clouds are doing something else completely different and i do not know how to explain it.