Ernesto Remnants

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Coredesat

#121 Postby Coredesat » Fri Sep 01, 2006 9:47 am

I agree, a 992 mb TD? I don't think so.
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Jim Cantore

#122 Postby Jim Cantore » Fri Sep 01, 2006 9:50 am

Team Ragnarok wrote:I agree, a 992 mb TD? I don't think so.


Katrina was a TD at 985mb but that was a completely diffrent animal.

I do agree though, 40-50mph winds are being reported all over in Virginia.
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#123 Postby WindRunner » Fri Sep 01, 2006 9:51 am

I'm sorry, but with all due respect towards the NHC, that is crap at its finest. I'm staring at obs that are reporting TS force winds less then 50nm from the center in a major metro area of almost 1 million people! Please, where is the sense in this?
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Jim Cantore

#124 Postby Jim Cantore » Fri Sep 01, 2006 9:53 am

LOL! TWC just showed a current satelitte loop..... From tuesday :lol:
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#125 Postby Sanibel » Fri Sep 01, 2006 10:01 am

992 Extratropical?
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#126 Postby drezee » Fri Sep 01, 2006 10:12 am

drezee wrote:Let's see how bold the NHC is at 15z. They want to get rid of Ernesto more than anything. The 12z models were initialized at 35kts when 52 kt sustained winds were being recorded off shore and 50 mph sustained winds onshore (gusts to 76 mph). Currently 2-min winds are still sustained over 50 mph in more than one place. Will they ignore the data and say it is 35 mph or...

Will they say that the strong wind is not a part of the circulation and it due to the pressure gradient...

Let's see...

I would look for this phrase in some way….

The current winds being experienced offshore are due to the pressure gradient and not indicative of the strength of Ernesto.


Brent wrote:Down to a TD at 11 and it's the final NHC advisory!

RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT ERNESTO HAS WEAKENED
AND IS NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO AND A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
THE NORTH IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS WELL TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC.


Man...they are so predictable...
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#127 Postby Trugunzn » Fri Sep 01, 2006 10:15 am

Look at this loop and it seems like going NE or ENE. But I think the center is going North? Is it seperating?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/loop-avn.html

Image
Last edited by Trugunzn on Fri Sep 01, 2006 10:33 am, edited 2 times in total.
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#128 Postby milfordmawx » Fri Sep 01, 2006 10:20 am

drezee wrote:http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=YKRV2


winds still 60mph sustained at this station and gust to 76 mph


Chesapeake Light gusts to 62mph as well. Here's a look at all the Chesapeake Bay buoy's http://www.pdfamily.com/weather/buoy/CHBbuoy.php
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#129 Postby terstorm1012 » Fri Sep 01, 2006 10:25 am

Yes guys, what you are seeing is the interaction with the pressure gradient. We see this a lot with storms in this part of the world.

see Isabel, the 1933 Chesapeake Storm, et cetera. All caused high winds far beyond the storm center and even after being downgraded.

this is an impressive wind gradient IMO.
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#130 Postby Trugunzn » Fri Sep 01, 2006 10:26 am

still looks well over land:
Image
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#131 Postby stormtruth » Fri Sep 01, 2006 10:31 am

Norfolk, which has already had lots of rain, is about to get even heavier rain
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#132 Postby Trugunzn » Fri Sep 01, 2006 10:34 am

Trugunzn wrote:Look at this loop and it seems like going NE or ENE. But I think the center is going North? Is it seperating?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/loop-avn.html

Image


anybody think its East of the Track?

Image
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#133 Postby terstorm1012 » Fri Sep 01, 2006 10:37 am

I do trugunzn. Hopefully a promet will pop up shortly. I had trouble yesterday seeing what would force this thing to the north and northwest.
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Brent
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#134 Postby Brent » Fri Sep 01, 2006 10:39 am

Trugunzn wrote:
Trugunzn wrote:Look at this loop and it seems like going NE or ENE. But I think the center is going North? Is it seperating?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/loop-avn.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/avn-l.jpg


anybody think its East of the Track?

Image


Not really.

Here's the projected path at 5pm yesterday, the 2pm Friday position is very very close to where it is now, so it may be a little ahead of the track.

http://i26.photobucket.com/albums/c131/ ... rnesto.gif

Now, if it doesn't turn more to the NW it will be.
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terstorm1012
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#135 Postby terstorm1012 » Fri Sep 01, 2006 10:41 am

ah ok Brent, thanks.

What I need to do is get some analysis charts, to my untrained eye I don't know what is going to make it go north and west when where I am we're on the north side of the stationary front.
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#136 Postby wxman57 » Fri Sep 01, 2006 10:53 am

I agree, I was amazed when the NHC downgraded Ernesto last hour. While the strongest sustained winds over Virgina are in the 20-25kt range, there is at least one 35kt sustained wind being reported over southwestern Maryland and many 35-40 kt winds in/near Chesapeake Bay. there may be some question about the winds offshore Delaware/Maryland - whether they're from the circulation of Ernesto or due to an increasing pressure gradient caused by the strong high to the north. But this is certainly as atypical of the NHC as their failure to call Ernesto a hurricane yesterday.

Something is definitely "up" at the NHC. Here's a recent surface plot of the region:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ernesto79.gif

P.S. I'm even more amazed that the NHC issued the final advisory on what looks like a tropical storm over eastern NC.....
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MiamiensisWx

#137 Postby MiamiensisWx » Fri Sep 01, 2006 10:58 am

In my opinion, I still believe Ernesto is still a low-end (45MPH to 50MPH roughly) tropical storm. Although the winds further out are likely due to the pressure gradient, the winds closer to the center may not be entirely due to the gradient. This is evidenced in similar past storms under similar synoptics. It still is rather puzzling why this was just downgraded to a depression.
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#138 Postby terstorm1012 » Fri Sep 01, 2006 11:00 am

Perhaps we're seeing a phase a-la Hazel? Just a thought.
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#139 Postby Stephanie » Fri Sep 01, 2006 11:03 am

The intensity of a storm isn't determined by knots but by MPH. MPH is 15% higher than the knot speed. If anything, it definately is a WELL DEVELOPED tropical depression. It sure looks like he's riding the coastline instead making his left hand turn inland. He's also barely moved.

Ernesto has got to go down in the books as the most confounding storm for the meteorological industry.
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#140 Postby terstorm1012 » Fri Sep 01, 2006 11:06 am

well looking at radar it does look to me like the center of the storm is moving northward.

the clouds are doing something else completely different and i do not know how to explain it.
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