TD #6 Central Atlantic,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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superfly

#21 Postby superfly » Sat Sep 02, 2006 4:29 pm

Guess they're splitting 98L into 2 waves.
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#22 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 02, 2006 4:31 pm

SouthFloridawx,the invest is for the better organized area behind what the models were iniciating for 98L which was 39w.
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#23 Postby WindRunner » Sat Sep 02, 2006 4:31 pm

So three low-latitude waves right now . . . surprisingly, no mention of this easternmost of the three on the 5:30pm TWO.
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#24 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sat Sep 02, 2006 4:33 pm

cycloneye wrote:SouthFloridawx,the invest is for the better organized area behind what the models were iniciating for 98L which was 39w.


Ok so they are keeping 98L as the wave and low in front of this one.
I guess they are far enough apart to classify as two different invests?
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#25 Postby HurricaneMaster_PR » Sat Sep 02, 2006 4:34 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SAT SEP 2 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER IN WASHINGTON DC IS
ISSUING ADVISORIES ON THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO...OVER MARYLAND.

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PREVIOUSLY OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES IS
NOW OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS CURRENTLY POORLY ORGANIZED...AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD
BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ABOUT
1200 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 10
MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION TODAY...
ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

A NEW AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED ABOUT 750 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM SHOWS SIGNS
OF ORGANIZATION...AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD ABOUT 10 MPH.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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#26 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 02, 2006 4:35 pm

They divided 98L into 2 diffeent entities and now the easternmost area is 90L.
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#27 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sat Sep 02, 2006 4:40 pm

You can see both 98 and 90L in this shot. 90 is the good lookin one in the back.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at2_0.html

Image
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#28 Postby GeneratorPower » Sat Sep 02, 2006 4:42 pm

If this doesn't look like a TS in the making I don't know what does.
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jhamps10

#29 Postby jhamps10 » Sat Sep 02, 2006 4:45 pm

I for one am suprised that they made this into 2 invests. JIMO here but I think that 90L and 98L are in the same wave axis, that is if I am looking at things correctly. But oh well, their decision and not mine, I think that both, actually all 3 invests have a solid chance of development, and infact I think that 90L and 98L could merge and create 9098L :lol: but seriously I do think that they could come together, question is, what would we call it then :?:
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#30 Postby clfenwi » Sat Sep 02, 2006 4:54 pm

A reasonably hot and fresh high-res Quikscat shot of the area...

or not...

(The days have been so badly running together of late... my apologies)
Last edited by clfenwi on Sat Sep 02, 2006 4:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#31 Postby wxmann_91 » Sat Sep 02, 2006 4:55 pm

That's a day old, clfenwi.
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#32 Postby the_winds_that_sheared_me » Sat Sep 02, 2006 4:55 pm

jhamps10 wrote:I for one am suprised that they made this into 2 invests. JIMO here but I think that 90L and 98L are in the same wave axis, that is if I am looking at things correctly. But oh well, their decision and not mine, I think that both, actually all 3 invests have a solid chance of development, and infact I think that 90L and 98L could merge and create 9098L :lol: but seriously I do think that they could come together, question is, what would we call it then :?:

Not a big deal unless they both become TDs and one of them become the dominant one and gobbles up the other and they merge becoming a whole new TD. So we would have TD 6 & 7 merging to form 8. All in all though, I think they are to close together for both invests to develop-I'd expect just one.
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#33 Postby huricanwatcher » Sat Sep 02, 2006 4:56 pm

GOD!!!!! 90 looks scarey and its real early ... wow ... how big can a storm get? ... this thing might be our nemisis for 2006 ... so what if the total count is down for the year... :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :( :( :( :( :( :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry:
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#34 Postby Trugunzn » Sat Sep 02, 2006 4:57 pm

very impressive:

Image[/img]
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#35 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Sep 02, 2006 4:58 pm

It does look impressive, and I would not be suprised if this became a depression by Monday
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#36 Postby huricanwatcher » Sat Sep 02, 2006 4:58 pm

..
Last edited by huricanwatcher on Sat Sep 02, 2006 5:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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rnbaida

#37 Postby rnbaida » Sat Sep 02, 2006 5:00 pm

The faster is develops the faster it will turn north.... AND BE A FISH
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#38 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Sep 02, 2006 5:04 pm

rnbaida wrote:The faster is develops the faster it will turn north.... AND BE A FISH


For some reason, I wish it was guaranteed
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#39 Postby Derecho » Sat Sep 02, 2006 5:04 pm

the_winds_that_sheared_me wrote:
Not a big deal unless they both become TDs and one of them become the dominant one and gobbles up the other and they merge becoming a whole new TD. So we would have TD 6 & 7 merging to form 8. All in all though, I think they are to close together for both invests to develop-I'd expect just one.



That would never happen.....

First off it's rather unlikely that both INVESTS would make TD...conceivably possible, but I'd really doubt it. They're really going to fight inflow-wise and I suspect one of the two never makes it past INVEST.

If they did, one is going to eat the other in fairly short order...if so, it wouldn't be given a new TD number; it would be pretty clear which one ingested the other and the combined system would have that number, rather than be assigned a new TD number.

In any event, if one at the other I'd suspect the "winner" would be a named storm by the time it ingested/destroyed the other TD anyway.
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#40 Postby huricanwatcher » Sat Sep 02, 2006 5:05 pm

Hurricaneman, i agree with you.... no guarantees... and i dont like the looks of this one this early AT ALL!!!
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