TD #6 Central Atlantic,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

#41 Postby **AnnularCane** » Sat Sep 02, 2006 5:05 pm

90L is beautiful! I guess 98L is in there somewhere too, because on the Navy site I got the same picture for both of them.

I think I have the right ones.

rnbaida · #42 Postby **rnbaida** » Sat Sep 02, 2006 5:06 pm

huricanwatcher wrote:Hurricaneman, i agree with you.... no guarantees... and i dont like the looks of this one this early AT ALL!!!

Why? All the models are predicting a turn to the NW with 98L which is right next to 90L

huricanwatcher · #43 Postby **huricanwatcher** » Sat Sep 02, 2006 5:07 pm

the feather effect coming off of it... may sustain itself separate from ol 98L this dont happen hardly every and is happening for a reason... sorry IMO

rnbaida · #44 Postby **rnbaida** » Sat Sep 02, 2006 5:20 pm

huricanwatcher wrote:the feather effect coming off of it... may sustain itself separate from ol 98L this dont happen hardly every and is happening for a reason... sorry IMO

I think that it won't ride the ridge and will turn north and affect nobody.... We'll see the models at around 8-9pm tonight....

HurricaneMaster_PR · #45 Postby **HurricaneMaster_PR** » Sat Sep 02, 2006 5:24 pm

TAFB=Possible Tropical Cyclone in 24 hours!

#46 Postby **MWatkins** » Sat Sep 02, 2006 5:25 pm

jhamps10 wrote:I for one am suprised that they made this into 2 invests. JIMO here but I think that 90L and 98L are in the same wave axis, that is if I am looking at things correctly. But oh well, their decision and not mine, I think that both, actually all 3 invests have a solid chance of development, and infact I think that 90L and 98L could merge and create 9098L but seriously I do think that they could come together, question is, what would we call it then

The models have been somewhat confused by these features...and I think they are distinct enough to be designated differently.

They may split the difference...there is a stong convective burst going which started a couple of hours ago...right around 10.5N 38W or so. If someone were to offer me a wager, I would bet that this is the bottom part of the SW to NE elongated axis you mentioned. It's possible the circulation will close off down there and some of that business to the NE will dissipate over the next several hours.

Something is afoot...

MW

#47 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Sep 02, 2006 5:29 pm

Derek and I have been saying today that the NHC was looking in the wrong place for development. 90L is where we've been seeing the strong circulation. 98L weakened considerably since yesterday and is no longer a significant threat of developing.

wxmann_91 · #48 Postby **wxmann_91** » Sat Sep 02, 2006 5:35 pm

I personally think this has a pretty good chance of development, and I would give it a 50% chance of classification by Labor Day. The fact that many of the Global models aside from the NOGAPS develop this, should signal that something is up with this system.

#49 Postby **MWatkins** » Sat Sep 02, 2006 5:35 pm

wxman57 wrote:Derek and I have been saying today that the NHC was looking in the wrong place for development. 90L is where we've been seeing the strong circulation. 98L weakened considerably since yesterday and is no longer a significant threat of developing.

Thanks for passing that information along...and after looking at this for about 15 mins now...for whatever it's worth...and it's not much...I concur with the new invest, you and Derek.

I just got back from the gym...been playing hoops all day, so I am catching up on things. I haven't read through all the posts yet...

The trailing system looks to be the first to develop...and the prospects for any immediate development for the one past 40W go down. But depending on what happens to the eastern one...the system more to the west could develop down the road...if they can get far enough apart.

MW

#50 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Sep 02, 2006 5:45 pm

Mike,what about the future tracks both systems will have? You know why I ask.

Derecho · #51 Postby **Derecho** » Sat Sep 02, 2006 5:45 pm

wxman57 wrote:Derek and I have been saying today that the NHC was looking in the wrong place for development. 90L is where we've been seeing the strong circulation. 98L weakened considerably since yesterday and is no longer a significant threat of developing.

Convection has been increasing markedly with 98L in the last couple of hours and it now as much or even a tad more than 90L.

Trugunzn · #52 Postby **Trugunzn** » Sat Sep 02, 2006 5:46 pm

18z gfs so far:

rnbaida · #53 Postby **rnbaida** » Sat Sep 02, 2006 5:54 pm

Has the system very close to the US....

Trugunzn · #54 Postby **Trugunzn** » Sat Sep 02, 2006 5:59 pm

Then the pressure pulls away and it heads north away from land. Gfs has the same position as the GFDL and CMC

#55 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Sep 02, 2006 6:02 pm

Trugunzn wrote:Then the pressure pulls away and it heads north away from land. Gfs has the same position as the GFDL and CMC

Dont forget Bermuda.

Extremeweatherguy · #56 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Sep 02, 2006 6:04 pm

This seems to show 2 systems. One in the GOM (99L?), and one approaching the east coast. If this verifies, it could be an interesting week ahead.

EDIT: Actually no, wait, this is for 264 hours. That system in the GOM looks to be something completely different than 99L (coming from the east, not SE. Could this be 98L or 90L?), and the system off the EC is probably the wave behind 90L.

Here's the loop:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

#57 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Sep 02, 2006 6:11 pm

Tropical Cyclone Formation area

Derecho · #58 Postby **Derecho** » Sat Sep 02, 2006 6:11 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:This seems to show 2 systems. One in the GOM (99L?), and one approaching the east coast. If this verifies, it could be an interesting week ahead.

It can be painfully difficult to follow vort centers for waves - using the 950mb vorticity maps from FSU is usually the best bet.

99L on the 18Z GFS heads WSW, weakening all the time, till it disappears over Nicaragua. It is NOT the low in the Gulf on the map above.

Astonishingly enough, on the GFS 90L and 98L rotate around each other so that 90L ends up further west than 98L, such that the low in the GOM on the map above is actually 90L, and the one in the Atlantic is 98L.

I'm not kidding.

Check it out:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

rnbaida · #59 Postby **rnbaida** » Sat Sep 02, 2006 6:12 pm

I saw the GFS...That is way too far out and the GFS has no idea what is talking about..... The system hasnt developed yet.... give it about 2-3 more days until we have a TD or TS and then we can look at the GFS

Extremeweatherguy · #60 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Sep 02, 2006 6:13 pm

Derecho wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:This seems to show 2 systems. One in the GOM (99L?), and one approaching the east coast. If this verifies, it could be an interesting week ahead.

It can be painfully difficult to follow vort centers for waves - using the 950mb vorticity maps from FSU is usually the best bet.

99L on the 18Z GFS heads WSW, weakening all the time, till it disappears over Nicaragua. It is NOT the low in the Gulf on the map above.

Astonishingly enough, on the GFS 90L and 98L rotate around each other so that 90L ends up further west than 98L, such that the low in the GOM on the map above is actually 90L, and the one in the Atlantic is 98L.

I'm not kidding.

Check it out:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

yeah, I just figured that out after posting my original message. This would be very weird if it verified.

TD #6 Central Atlantic,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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