TD #6 Central Atlantic,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[WindRunner]

Not sure if this has been posted or not, but a quikscat pass from earlier today:



Shows at least three 35kt barbs, though they are possibly contaminated. Very large area of 30kt winds, so I would expect this to be a TS soon, even though the NHC will probably wait for new visibles and upgrade at 11am unless something rather conclusive happens overnight.

[TampaFl]

Miami NWS interesting thoughts on this:

FXUS62 KMFL 031857
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
257 PM EDT SUN SEP 3 2006

FOR THE EXTENDED...WE WILL NEED TO SEE WHAT TRANSPIRES OF THE
BROAD LOW NOW OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THE GLOBAL MODEL
CONSENSUS IS FOR THIS LOW TO EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE. THE BIG QUESTION OF COURSE IS WHERE WILL IT GO AND HOW
STRONG WOULD IT BECOME. THESE ARE UNKOWN OF COURSE AT THIS
TIME...BUT THERE ARE TWO MORE LIKELY SCENARIOS...ONE BEING THAT
THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS QUICKLY THEN GETS PULLED UP AND TAKEN AWAY BY THE
MASSIVE TROUGH NOW TO ITS NORTH...AND THE OTHER (MORE FAVORED BY
THE GLOBAL MODELS) IS TO HAVE THE SYSTEM DEVELOP SLOWLY. IN THE
MEANTIME THE TROUGH TO ITS NORTH PULLS OUT AND GETS REPLACED BY A
STRONG RIDGE BUILDING TO ITS NORTH...MOVING THE POSSIBLE CYCLONE
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WE SHALL SEE.

[Canelaw99]

Well, I'd say that Miami disco pretty much sums up what most of us think....not liking that "strong ridge building to its north" though, that's for sure.....

[tgenius]

Well, I'd say that Miami disco pretty much sums up what most of us think....not liking that "strong ridge building to its north" though, that's for sure.....

I hate that comparison... its inevitable that everytime that ridge building pushing west comes into play, it's Andrew flashbacks...

[TampaFl]

NWS Tampa thoughts:

FXUS62 KTBW 031727
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
127 PM EDT SUN SEP 3 2006

.
THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND BECOMES A BIT MORE
TRICKY...WITH LAST TWO RUNS OF THE GFS WANTING TO TAKE A TROPICAL
WAVE OR PERHAPS A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TO OUR SOUTH AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD. GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION...FOR NOW WILL
CARRY CLIMO POPS IN THE 30-40% RANGE WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND LATE DAY
WEST-COAST TSTM ACTIVITY AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/vis-l.jpg

Is it just me or does it look likt 06 is sucking energy from the wave behind her.

[Trugunzn]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/vis-l.jpg

Is it just me or does it look likt 06 is sucking energy from the wave behind her.

Dont know, but the wave behind it has alot of energy too.

[Canelaw99]

I hate that comparison... its inevitable that everytime that ridge building pushing west comes into play, it's Andrew flashbacks...

Yeah, that's what a lot of my friends say whenever storms develop in that vicinity with those ridges. I wasn't here for Andrew so I didn't have to go through that, but I've read enough from here that that's what makes people cringe.....

[JTD]

Floyd would be a good comparison of what this storm COULD do.

It formed the labor day weekend of 1999.

[Extremeweatherguy]

NWS Tampa thoughts:

FXUS62 KTBW 031727
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
127 PM EDT SUN SEP 3 2006

.
THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND BECOMES A BIT MORE
TRICKY...WITH LAST TWO RUNS OF THE GFS WANTING TO TAKE A TROPICAL
WAVE OR PERHAPS A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TO OUR SOUTH AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD. GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION...FOR NOW WILL
CARRY CLIMO POPS IN THE 30-40% RANGE WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND LATE DAY
WEST-COAST TSTM ACTIVITY AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

I do not like that AT ALL in terms of the GOM. If the system passes to the south of Tampa and heads westward we could be in serious trouble. Let's just hope TD6 for some reason turns out to sea and dies before ever reaching land. That would be the best scenario.

[SouthFLTropics]

Probably 10-12 days, some models recurve it right before hitting US, though if it stays south, like S fla, or C fla, trofs dont make it to florida in sept, so i would think curvature is unlikely...

As far as a hit in South or Central Florida you are correct that in many cases a trough would not save the peninsula from a hit in September but there have been cases where it has happened. Most recently I can think of Floyd in 1999. I firmly believe that my home and area was spared due to the front that dug South and lifted Floyd North to the Carolinas. Needless to say we were on pins and needles until we saw the turn taking place.

SouthFLTropics

[SouthFloridawx]

This system is definitely feeling the effects from the trough to it's north.

[Grease Monkey]

I think it's way too early to start talking about major trouble ahead or accurately comparing this system to past systems. Tracks and intensity can change drastically as we've also seen with this season.

[Meso]

Is it just me or is this storm rather large in size ? especially considering it isn't even a TS yet...

[Grease Monkey]

I think it might be due to the fact there's a lot of moisture surrounding it.

[Canelaw99]

This system is definitely feeling the effects from the trough to it's north.

(trying to learn here) - what do you see that makes you say that?

[Trugunzn]

This system is definitely feeling the effects from the trough to it's north.

WOW, great outflow all around. I also thnik the wave behind it is helping it.

[windycity]

Oh, im as ready as i can be, i live in south Florida!! Do i have that "bring it on" mentality? NO!!!!!

[Eyewall]

Oh, im as ready as i can be, i live in south Florida!! Do i have that "bring it on" mentality? NO!!!!!

you probably know that i have the "bring it on" mentality!
but i do hope nobody gets hurt.

[shaggy]

this one may be interesting especailly if it does make that turn back to the west later in the forecast epriod.Then its a matter of does it recurve close to the coast or make a run at the SE or GOM.Looks really good on sat pics and now it starts another waiting game i guess.