TD #6 Central Atlantic,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[SouthFloridawx]

This system is definitely feeling the effects from the trough to it's north.
(removed image)
(trying to learn here) - what do you see that makes you say that?

I'm seeing that because the trough is pulling the system to the north as it is becoming better organized. In the picture below you can see the Upper Clouds on the North and Northeastern sides being whisked away to the notheast which is clearly evident that it is being caused by the Upper Level Trough to its north. The same trough just obliterated an Upper Level low that was situated to the northeast of the system.



http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _ls_0.html
Loop

[Wx_Warrior]

Have you guys even looked at the 6-7-8-9 day GFS model forecasts?????

Or do you just see waves and roll the dice, use ouija board, 8-ball, tarot cards, horoscopes?

[Canelaw99]

Ah, ty, Southflorida

[stormernie]

It already looks to be a tropical storm, and the movement seems to be more north than west.

The faster it develops the less likelihood for it to threaten the US or anyone else.

Let's hope it develops and heads for a fishing trip.

[Beam]

Have you guys even looked at the 6-7-8-9 day GFS model forecasts?????

Or do you just see waves and roll the dice, use ouija board, 8-ball, tarot cards, horoscopes?

You'd have about the same amount of reliability either way.

[SouthFLTropics]

I agree SouthFloridawx, it definitely is feeling the effects of that huge trough. I think now the question will be how quickly this system develops. I have to think that a rapidly developing system will be pulled more poleward and recurve out to sea due to this mid atlantic trough. On the other hand a weaker, slower developing system will head more WNW and let the trough clear out allowing that ridge to build back in. Not only will that allow it to go west but it would also provide a condusive environment for strengthening. That scares me!!!

SouthFLTropics

[Canelaw99]

Yep, have seen the GFS...here's the GFS 144 hrs. out, for whatever it's worth (which may or may not be much):

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2006090312&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[Trugunzn]

This system is definitely feeling the effects from the trough to it's north.
(removed image)
(trying to learn here) - what do you see that makes you say that?

I'm seeing that because the trough is pulling the system to the north as it is becoming better organized. In the picture below you can see the Upper Clouds on the North and Northeastern sides being whisked away to the notheast which is clearly evident that it is being caused by the Upper Level Trough to its north. The same trough just obliterated an Upper Level low that was situated to the northeast of the system.



http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _ls_0.html
Loop

Ithink the trough will be a big part of what TD6 will do. It will eaither weaken the high or weaken TD6

[Trugunzn]

Yep, have seen the GFS...here's the GFS 144 hrs. out, for whatever it's worth (which may or may not be much):

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2006090312&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Then it curves it out

[AZRainman]

Looks like it's going to slip under the ridge.

GFS says heads up East Coast.


http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/loop.gfs10d500t.html

[SouthFloridawx]

Ithink the trough will be a big part of what TD6 will do. It will eaither weaken the high or weaken TD6

IMO this trough is going to help save the US from a possible Major event in 7-11 days. If the trough pulls this system out to sea with it that is awesome.. If not, IMHO everyone on the east coast needs to check thier supplies in the coming days.

Hopefully another trough will dip down as it "Florence" approaches the US east coast. Will it be strong enough... will the Bermuda high be reinforced?

[Bgator]

Yep, have seen the GFS...here's the GFS 144 hrs. out, for whatever it's worth (which may or may not be much):

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2006090312&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Then it curves it out

Dont even bother with the GFS 10 days out when it curves it...thats just as good as a psycic saying what it will do, what i can tell models arent the best on how strong trofs will be, and if the GFS plays true a pretty strong trof will have to dig all the way down to Sfla...

[Wx_Warrior]

FOR WHAT ITS WORTH....

Spoke with KFDM met....GFS turns it up East Coast in about a week with a Cat 3

[wxmann_91]

Hint: Do not trust 10 day GFS.

[caneman]

GFDL takes it West. I wouldn't be so quick to write off as a fish spinner.

[Trugunzn]

Interesting what next GFDL run will show,

[AZRainman]

Hint: Do not trust 10 day GFS.

You have a better crystal ball? LOL

Ernesto already proved even 3 days out can be a farce forecast, but that doesn't mean tea leave forecasts are more valid than a super computer.

Have to go with the tools that you have....

[Dean4Storms]

FOR WHAT ITS WORTH....

Spoke with KFDM met....GFS turns it up East Coast in about a week with a Cat 3

That is a possibility but certainly not writtten in stone by KFDM or anyone else for that matter this early out.

[WindRunner]

Official advisory is out now.

[HurricaneHunter914]

IMO the GFS and the GFDL are the most trusted models right now, but since they do not have a consensus then that means we can't have a good fix on whether this hits land or not. Right we should prepare for the worst and hope for the best.