T.D. Six - Sat Pics, Comments,Models Thread #2

[Beam]

First Advisory

Thread One

Florence on Monday? Or even tonight?

[Derek Ortt]

dont think we will see Florence at 11 with the short term decrease in convective activity

[JonathanBelles]

if not at 11 definatly by tomorrow at 11.

[Canelaw99]

I think they'll wait until tomorrow simply because it's no threat to land, so no need to rush the classifications....pretty much no doubt in my mind that we'll see Florence by tomorrow though, unless some weird twist of nature kills this before then.

[CrazyC83]

dont think we will see Florence at 11 with the short term decrease in convective activity

Isn't that more because of the diurnal minimum than anything?

[Grease Monkey]

Could be the NW shear they were talking about in the short term.

[WindRunner]

could be track like this:
-clipped image of Fran track from http://www.atmos.umd.edu/~stevenb/hurr/96/fran/fran_v2.gif-

Yeah, that seems very possible right now.

EDIT for link

[WindRunner]

dont think we will see Florence at 11 with the short term decrease in convective activity

Isn't that more because of the diurnal minimum than anything?

Also the NHC doesn't like to upgrade systems without visible imagery if they don't have to.

[Weatherfreak14]

I say florence by 5am tommrrow.

[NFLDART]

let the games begin

[SouthFloridawx]

I would not be entirely suprised if the ULT picks this thing up. It is fairly evident on sat. imagery that the trough is affecting this system already.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/on...ge_wv_ls_0.html

The trough was darting southward very quckly but, looks to be slowing up now.

There is one key factor for TD6 in the near term. If the trough sticks around longer, #6 is going out to sea a lot faster than forecasted.

If the trough pulls out quickly it's time for the east coast to start checking thier supplies. GFS is forecasting a fairly decent 500mb ridge throughout the next week.

[wxmann_91]

Very important - If the center reforms to the north, both the track and intensity forecasted will have be adjusted dramatically. When I mean that, I mean that a) Florence will be Fish and b) Florence isn't going to strengthen beyond TS status. It threw off Irene in 2005, and Ernesto this year.

[Stratosphere747]

It's not so much about the trough sticking around longer, but if the center consolidates further to the north as Franklin mentioned.

[johngaltfla]

Interesting analysis SouthFloridawx. I'm not as concerned about this storm being a Florida threat as much of an East Coast threat. That's when things on this board will get interesting. I hope it's a fish, but if you're right and it does miss and the ridge builds in, it has time to develop and keep on chugging westward.

[huricanwatcher]

BEARS WATCHING (hehehehe)

[SouthFloridawx]

Yet another tricky one...

[cycloneye]

SouthFloridawx,what do you mean by another tricky one?

[Derek Ortt]

NHC has a fairly south track.

Even with a more northward short term track, there should still be a turn more to the west

[SouthAlabamaWX]

The GFS didn't initialize the system (TD#6) well today. Note, that the GFS is not mentioned in the TCD this evening by Franklin. He decided not to use it. It is too early to read into any models at this point. Just last week the models had Estesto moving to Texas and the GOM. The models will change many times over the next several days. It is too early to know for sure where TD#6 will go.

[SouthFloridawx]

SouthFloridawx,what do you mean by another tricky one?

I mean there is no clear cut answer to the track. I know there are always variables into the track a storm takes but, this one is highly dependant on the through to it's north and a subsequent ridge building on top of it. I was reading at another forum and they noted that the ECM breaks down the ridge and has an opposite forecast of the GFS. Here is the image that was posted at another forum.. (giving them credit easternwx)