T.D. Six - Sat Pics, Comments,Models Thread #2

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Beam
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T.D. Six - Sat Pics, Comments,Models Thread #2

#1 Postby Beam » Sun Sep 03, 2006 3:52 pm

First Advisory

Thread One

Florence on Monday? Or even tonight?
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Derek Ortt

#2 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun Sep 03, 2006 3:56 pm

dont think we will see Florence at 11 with the short term decrease in convective activity
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#3 Postby JonathanBelles » Sun Sep 03, 2006 3:57 pm

if not at 11 definatly by tomorrow at 11.
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#4 Postby Canelaw99 » Sun Sep 03, 2006 3:58 pm

I think they'll wait until tomorrow simply because it's no threat to land, so no need to rush the classifications....pretty much no doubt in my mind that we'll see Florence by tomorrow though, unless some weird twist of nature kills this before then.
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#5 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Sep 03, 2006 3:58 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:dont think we will see Florence at 11 with the short term decrease in convective activity


Isn't that more because of the diurnal minimum than anything?
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#6 Postby Grease Monkey » Sun Sep 03, 2006 3:59 pm

Could be the NW shear they were talking about in the short term.
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#7 Postby WindRunner » Sun Sep 03, 2006 4:00 pm

Trugunzn wrote:could be track like this:
-clipped image of Fran track from http://www.atmos.umd.edu/~stevenb/hurr/96/fran/fran_v2.gif-


Yeah, that seems very possible right now.

EDIT for link
Last edited by WindRunner on Sun Sep 03, 2006 4:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#8 Postby WindRunner » Sun Sep 03, 2006 4:01 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:dont think we will see Florence at 11 with the short term decrease in convective activity


Isn't that more because of the diurnal minimum than anything?


Also the NHC doesn't like to upgrade systems without visible imagery if they don't have to.
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#9 Postby Weatherfreak14 » Sun Sep 03, 2006 4:03 pm

I say florence by 5am tommrrow.
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#10 Postby NFLDART » Sun Sep 03, 2006 4:15 pm

let the games begin
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#11 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sun Sep 03, 2006 4:24 pm

I would not be entirely suprised if the ULT picks this thing up. It is fairly evident on sat. imagery that the trough is affecting this system already.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/on...ge_wv_ls_0.html

The trough was darting southward very quckly but, looks to be slowing up now.

There is one key factor for TD6 in the near term. If the trough sticks around longer, #6 is going out to sea a lot faster than forecasted.

If the trough pulls out quickly it's time for the east coast to start checking thier supplies. GFS is forecasting a fairly decent 500mb ridge throughout the next week.

Image
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#12 Postby wxmann_91 » Sun Sep 03, 2006 4:28 pm

Very important - If the center reforms to the north, both the track and intensity forecasted will have be adjusted dramatically. When I mean that, I mean that a) Florence will be Fish and b) Florence isn't going to strengthen beyond TS status. It threw off Irene in 2005, and Ernesto this year.
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#13 Postby Stratosphere747 » Sun Sep 03, 2006 4:28 pm

It's not so much about the trough sticking around longer, but if the center consolidates further to the north as Franklin mentioned.
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#14 Postby johngaltfla » Sun Sep 03, 2006 4:28 pm

Interesting analysis SouthFloridawx. I'm not as concerned about this storm being a Florida threat as much of an East Coast threat. That's when things on this board will get interesting. I hope it's a fish, but if you're right and it does miss and the ridge builds in, it has time to develop and keep on chugging westward.
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#15 Postby huricanwatcher » Sun Sep 03, 2006 4:29 pm

BEARS WATCHING (hehehehe)
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#16 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sun Sep 03, 2006 4:35 pm

Yet another tricky one... :grr:

Image
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#17 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 03, 2006 4:37 pm

SouthFloridawx,what do you mean by another tricky one?
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Derek Ortt

#18 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun Sep 03, 2006 4:43 pm

NHC has a fairly south track.

Even with a more northward short term track, there should still be a turn more to the west
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#19 Postby SouthAlabamaWX » Sun Sep 03, 2006 4:43 pm

The GFS didn't initialize the system (TD#6) well today. Note, that the GFS is not mentioned in the TCD this evening by Franklin. He decided not to use it. It is too early to read into any models at this point. Just last week the models had Estesto moving to Texas and the GOM. The models will change many times over the next several days. It is too early to know for sure where TD#6 will go.
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#20 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sun Sep 03, 2006 4:50 pm

cycloneye wrote:SouthFloridawx,what do you mean by another tricky one?

I mean there is no clear cut answer to the track. I know there are always variables into the track a storm takes but, this one is highly dependant on the through to it's north and a subsequent ridge building on top of it. I was reading at another forum and they noted that the ECM breaks down the ridge and has an opposite forecast of the GFS. Here is the image that was posted at another forum.. (giving them credit easternwx)

Image
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