T.D. Six - Sat Pics, Comments,Models Thread #2

#461 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 3:43 pm

I'm getting tired of logging on and reading a bunch of arguing all the time.

#462 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 3:45 pm

ya kno i just looked at my calendar and saw that on september 16th somebody probably the astrometerologists predicted a hurricane in florida and i wrote it down...just thought it was weird.

Grease Monkey · #463 Postby **Grease Monkey** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 3:45 pm

Also TD6 looks horrible right now in my opinion. It looks like a mess. Just like ernesto before leaving florida and just like chris. I see no rapid developement anytime soon and i'm beginning to wonder if this system will ever get it's act together.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #464 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 3:47 pm

I agree the enviroment is very very unfaverable. This whole season has been like this. This has a better chance at fading away then it has to hit the US.

#465 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 3:48 pm

i thought the shear was killing it a couple of hours ago and everyone said no no.

cheezyWXguy · #466 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 3:48 pm

Grease Monkey wrote:Also TD6 looks horrible right now in my opinion. It looks like a mess. Just like ernesto before leaving florida and just like chris. I see no rapid developement anytime soon and i'm beginning to wonder if this system will ever get it's act together.

Its been classified for one measily day and youre giving up on it and saying its taking too long? A little patience...lets wait and see...I think tomorrow is gonna really help us tell if its gonna strengthen or not

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #467 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 3:50 pm

Fact, the shear maps show the shear decreasing over it at 20 knots. With 10 to 15 knot shear over it right now. But right to its north it increases to 30 to 40 knots. So yes the shear looks to becoming better. But if this went more north then byebye!

Cyclenall · #468 Postby **Cyclenall** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 3:52 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:I'm getting tired of logging on and reading a bunch of arguing all the time.

I don't even read any of it. I just ignore it. I have not read any of this thread yet.

First % chance of Tropical Depression 6 becoming a:

Tropical Depression: 100%
Tropical Storm: 84%
Hurricane: 70%
Category 2 Hurricane: 40%
Category 3 Hurricane: 20%
Category 4 Hurricane: 10%
Category 5 Hurricane: 5%

#469 Postby **GeneratorPower** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 3:56 pm

I'm wondering, based on satellite trends, if the center will reform down south at 14/47 where a new band of curved convection is firing.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #470 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 3:57 pm

For td6

Now 35 mph
6 35 mph
12 35 mph
24 35 mph
36 40 mph
48 50 mph
60 55 mph
72 65 mph
84 65 mph
96 70 mph
108 75 mph
120 75 mph

This is my wind thinking.

#471 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 3:57 pm

I was looking at the interaction between 6 and old 98L on visible satelite. They are clearly still close together. I have hypothesized that since the convection of 6 is somewhat ragged and it is disorganized, it may be trying to get more organized farther to the southwest. If the cirulation is not as organized now center formations are possible with different convective bursts in the overnight hours.

What do you guys think?

Stormavoider · #472 Postby **Stormavoider** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 3:57 pm

There is likely no science here. The current state of disorganization of this system may be because it is in the process of combining with 98L to make one bigger storm. Is this plausible?

Grease Monkey · #473 Postby **Grease Monkey** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 3:59 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:
Grease Monkey wrote:Also TD6 looks horrible right now in my opinion. It looks like a mess. Just like ernesto before leaving florida and just like chris. I see no rapid developement anytime soon and i'm beginning to wonder if this system will ever get it's act together.

Its been classified for one measily day and youre giving up on it and saying its taking too long? A little patience...lets wait and see...I think tomorrow is gonna really help us tell if its gonna strengthen or not

Just look at it's structure. Compare it to the other storms we had this season. Plus look at the dry air ahead. I don't see this becoming a TS anytime soon. I'm thinking maybe 5pm at the earliest. This system has been looking worse as time goes on.

Edit:

I mean't 5pm tomorrow at the earliest.

#474 Postby **GeneratorPower** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 4:01 pm

SouthFloridawx, I'm seeing the same thing. On visible you've got better circulation to the southwest at 14/47 than you do at the advisory position. Overall, the circulation of the whole system is an oval, elongated from SW to NE. If the center reforms to the SW you're going to see the track forecast change a bit and the dynamics.

#475 Postby **terstorm1012** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 4:03 pm

fact789 wrote:ya kno i just looked at my calendar and saw that on september 16th somebody probably the astrometerologists predicted a hurricane in florida and i wrote it down...just thought it was weird.

However, that guy missed all his previous dates, which were 7/23 (though maybe Beryl can qualify) and one in mid August.

but you're right it is weird man

carve · #476 Postby **carve** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 4:04 pm

Is it just me or are the 2 combining..Td 6 and the other wave..looks to be merging, with a possible circulation further southwest...any comments

Eyewall · #477 Postby **Eyewall** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 4:04 pm

Grease Monkey wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:
Grease Monkey wrote:Also TD6 looks horrible right now in my opinion. It looks like a mess. Just like ernesto before leaving florida and just like chris. I see no rapid developement anytime soon and i'm beginning to wonder if this system will ever get it's act together.

Its been classified for one measily day and youre giving up on it and saying its taking too long? A little patience...lets wait and see...I think tomorrow is gonna really help us tell if its gonna strengthen or not

Just look at it's structure. Compare it to the other storms we had this season. Plus look at the dry air ahead. I don't see this becoming a TS anytime soon. I'm thinking maybe 5pm at the earliest. This system has been looking worse as time goes on.

if you look at it closely, you can tell that the circulation is well established
the convection is struggling because of the shear.
as soon as the shear dies down, this thing is gonna strengthen quite a bit

Sanibel · #478 Postby **Sanibel** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 4:04 pm

Floater Loop:

TD6 has an impressive surface feature spinning underneath it.

The convection has taken a wave-like linear form due to interaction with the local synoptic influenced by the trough.

Looks like it will take-off folks.

#479 Postby **GeneratorPower** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 4:06 pm

carve wrote:Is it just me or are the 2 combining..Td 6 and the other wave..looks to be merging, with a possible circulation further southwest...any comments

We've been discussing this above, although we never said so specifically. The other wave is definately part of what I'm seeing here.

marcane_1973 · #480 Postby **marcane_1973** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 4:08 pm

I do not really rely on models until maybe we get close to a landfall and even then its sometimes not edged in stone. Models cant predict what the atmosphere will do even in the near term. What goes on above us has a mind of its own and will do what it wants to do. Thats the way i see it. Take it one day at a time and see if the storm is even alive by then.

T.D. Six - Sat Pics, Comments,Models Thread #2

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