T.D. Six - Sat Pics, Comments,Models Thread #2
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
- SouthFloridawx
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8346
- Age: 46
- Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:16 am
- Location: Sarasota, FL
- Contact:
-
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 11430
- Age: 35
- Joined: Sat Dec 24, 2005 9:00 pm
- Location: School: Florida State University (Tallahassee, FL) Home: St. Petersburg, Florida
- Contact:
- Grease Monkey
- Category 2
- Posts: 727
- Joined: Fri Jun 09, 2006 9:25 pm
-
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 11430
- Age: 35
- Joined: Sat Dec 24, 2005 9:00 pm
- Location: School: Florida State University (Tallahassee, FL) Home: St. Petersburg, Florida
- Contact:
- cheezyWXguy
- Category 5
- Posts: 6132
- Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2006 12:29 am
- Location: Dallas, TX
Grease Monkey wrote:Also TD6 looks horrible right now in my opinion. It looks like a mess. Just like ernesto before leaving florida and just like chris. I see no rapid developement anytime soon and i'm beginning to wonder if this system will ever get it's act together.
Its been classified for one measily day and youre giving up on it and saying its taking too long? A little patience...lets wait and see...I think tomorrow is gonna really help us tell if its gonna strengthen or not
0 likes
SouthFloridawx wrote:I'm getting tired of logging on and reading a bunch of arguing all the time.
I don't even read any of it. I just ignore it. I have not read any of this thread yet.
First % chance of Tropical Depression 6 becoming a:
Tropical Depression: 100%
Tropical Storm: 84%
Hurricane: 70%
Category 2 Hurricane: 40%
Category 3 Hurricane: 20%
Category 4 Hurricane: 10%
Category 5 Hurricane: 5%
0 likes
- GeneratorPower
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1648
- Age: 45
- Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 11:48 pm
- Location: Huntsville, AL
- SouthFloridawx
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8346
- Age: 46
- Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:16 am
- Location: Sarasota, FL
- Contact:
I was looking at the interaction between 6 and old 98L on visible satelite. They are clearly still close together. I have hypothesized that since the convection of 6 is somewhat ragged and it is disorganized, it may be trying to get more organized farther to the southwest. If the cirulation is not as organized now center formations are possible with different convective bursts in the overnight hours.
What do you guys think?
What do you guys think?
Last edited by SouthFloridawx on Mon Sep 04, 2006 3:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
-
- Category 2
- Posts: 671
- Joined: Sat Jul 01, 2006 4:37 pm
- Location: Spring Hill Fl.
- Grease Monkey
- Category 2
- Posts: 727
- Joined: Fri Jun 09, 2006 9:25 pm
cheezyWXguy wrote:Grease Monkey wrote:Also TD6 looks horrible right now in my opinion. It looks like a mess. Just like ernesto before leaving florida and just like chris. I see no rapid developement anytime soon and i'm beginning to wonder if this system will ever get it's act together.
Its been classified for one measily day and youre giving up on it and saying its taking too long? A little patience...lets wait and see...I think tomorrow is gonna really help us tell if its gonna strengthen or not
Just look at it's structure. Compare it to the other storms we had this season. Plus look at the dry air ahead. I don't see this becoming a TS anytime soon. I'm thinking maybe 5pm at the earliest. This system has been looking worse as time goes on.
Edit:
I mean't 5pm tomorrow at the earliest.
Last edited by Grease Monkey on Mon Sep 04, 2006 4:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
- GeneratorPower
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1648
- Age: 45
- Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 11:48 pm
- Location: Huntsville, AL
SouthFloridawx, I'm seeing the same thing. On visible you've got better circulation to the southwest at 14/47 than you do at the advisory position. Overall, the circulation of the whole system is an oval, elongated from SW to NE. If the center reforms to the SW you're going to see the track forecast change a bit and the dynamics.
0 likes
- terstorm1012
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1314
- Age: 43
- Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:36 pm
- Location: Millersburg, PA
fact789 wrote:ya kno i just looked at my calendar and saw that on september 16th somebody probably the astrometerologists predicted a hurricane in florida and i wrote it down...just thought it was weird.
However, that guy missed all his previous dates, which were 7/23 (though maybe Beryl can qualify) and one in mid August.
but you're right it is weird man

0 likes
Grease Monkey wrote:cheezyWXguy wrote:Grease Monkey wrote:Also TD6 looks horrible right now in my opinion. It looks like a mess. Just like ernesto before leaving florida and just like chris. I see no rapid developement anytime soon and i'm beginning to wonder if this system will ever get it's act together.
Its been classified for one measily day and youre giving up on it and saying its taking too long? A little patience...lets wait and see...I think tomorrow is gonna really help us tell if its gonna strengthen or not
Just look at it's structure. Compare it to the other storms we had this season. Plus look at the dry air ahead. I don't see this becoming a TS anytime soon. I'm thinking maybe 5pm at the earliest. This system has been looking worse as time goes on.
if you look at it closely, you can tell that the circulation is well established
the convection is struggling because of the shear.
as soon as the shear dies down, this thing is gonna strengthen quite a bit
0 likes
- GeneratorPower
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1648
- Age: 45
- Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 11:48 pm
- Location: Huntsville, AL
- marcane_1973
- Category 1
- Posts: 330
- Age: 51
- Joined: Mon Jun 26, 2006 11:01 pm
- Location: N.C.
- Contact:
I do not really rely on models until maybe we get close to a landfall and even then its sometimes not edged in stone. Models cant predict what the atmosphere will do even in the near term. What goes on above us has a mind of its own and will do what it wants to do. Thats the way i see it. Take it one day at a time and see if the storm is even alive by then.
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: Ulf and 44 guests