T.S Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

[gatorcane]

Yeah I don't understand either about the censoring

[Brent]

Why is Florences censored in the graphic calamity?

LOL! I was wondering the same.

Old girlfriend?

[Damar91]

Maybe because her center is almost naked?

[RevDodd]

I think out of the two systems we have 91L has the higher chance of landfalling probability

An Edouard-Fran scenario?

[BensonTCwatcher]

Cause she's NAKED!!!!!

[CrazyC83]

Why is Florences censored in the graphic calamity?

LOL! I was wondering the same.

Old girlfriend?

Trying to hide an eye trying to form?

[gatorcane]

Why is Florences censored in the graphic calamity?

LOL! I was wondering the same.

Old girlfriend?

hilarious

[fci]

As we All know very well the models will change back and forth for the next 3-5 days.

I do not expect to see a lot of model changes back and forth on Florence.
Like I said earlier there are way too many indications of a "normal" track (if there is such a thing as "normal") for this one.

Climatologically speaking and from the models this one will most likely recurve unless something really radical happens.

Any model back and forth may even show it recurve earlier than the current models show.

I think Ernesto is still very much on our minds and his unpredicatability. But historically the models and Pro Mets don't really miss by much and there is a large margin of error allowable by Florence before it would become a threat to the U.S.

Let's try (and I know it is hard after the last week or so) to not let Ernesto cloud our views of what the models and Pro Mets say. They had a hard time with Ernesto but that is the "exception" not the "rule".

[Meso]

CMC 12z model run at 144 hours Making landfall ummm..er...somewhere up north

UKMET 12z model run at 144 hours It builds quite a strong ridge north of the system


Look at the difference in location of the two models... talk about different speeds...

[CrazyC83]

CMC 12z model run at 144 hours Making landfall ummm..er...somewhere up north

UKMET 12z model run at 144 hours It builds quite a strong ridge north of the system


Look at the difference in location of the two models... talk about different speeds...

A Newfoundland landfall as a major hurricane? That would be quite a surprising track, but Luis (1995) did just that...

[HurricaneBelle]

CMC 12z model run at 144 hours Making landfall ummm..er...somewhere up north

UKMET 12z model run at 144 hours It builds quite a strong ridge north of the system


Look at the difference in location of the two models... talk about different speeds...

Hmmm....notice that it's the Canadian model taking it into the Maritimes. It must be -removed-!

[SouthFloridawx]

I think it is too early to be talking about a landfall 7-12 days out. That is just my personal opinion..

[CrazyC83]

I think it is too early to be talking about a landfall 7-12 days out. That is just my personal opinion..

True, the margin of error is thousands of miles...the entire Northwest Atlantic is ripe for the taking...

The only thing that can basically be ruled out is the Caribbean Sea.

[theworld]

Very cute.

My Mom's name is Florence.

Is this the Florence I once knew?

[CrazyC83]

CMC 12z model run at 144 hours Making landfall ummm..er...somewhere up north

UKMET 12z model run at 144 hours It builds quite a strong ridge north of the system


Look at the difference in location of the two models... talk about different speeds...

Hmmm....notice that it's the Canadian model taking it into the Maritimes. It must be -removed-!

That would make Juan look like an afternoon thunderstorm...that would be easily at least a Category 3, possibly 4, sitting up there...

[TampaFl]

NWS Miami thoughts on Floreance.

FXUS62 KMFL 051833
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
233 PM EDT TUE SEP 5 2006

.
THE WEATHER OVER THE CWA EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND MOSTLY ON
THE LOCATION AND THE STRENGTHEN OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE.
THEREFORE...CHECK FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE NHC ON
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE.

[Derek Ortt]

thats not a cat 3 or 4 hitting Canada.

CMC depicts a large, 980mb low. At that latitude, that equates to a cat 1 or 2

[HURAKAN]

Throughout the day the convection has been getting and firing-up closer to the center. Could we see tomorrow Florence's center under a CDO or will the shear be still too strong.

[MortisFL]

I think out of the two systems we have 91L has the higher chance of landfalling probability - my eyes are fociusing on 91L as it moves Westward at 10 mph

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=89296

Gator, just sit back and analyze the storm without making a landfall prediction in every post.

[Brent]

Very cute.

My Mom's name is Florence.

I keep thinking of Florence the maid from The Jeffersons.

Yeah I know, I watched way too much of that show this weekend.