T.S Florence Models Thread

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Rainband

#41 Postby Rainband » Wed Sep 06, 2006 8:22 am

Windtalker1 wrote:
Sorry, Don't buy it...How is this Storm going to break down that High from the NW merging with the High in the Atlantic?
The trof will do that.
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#42 Postby SouthFloridawx » Wed Sep 06, 2006 9:00 am

I have a really hard time going against all these models being in such tight agreement. I know things can shift and change and this and that but, that is no less than a very good consensus in the models. If something changes they will change thier mind.

Image
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#43 Postby weatherwoman » Wed Sep 06, 2006 9:18 am

looks like a sure bet a fish
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#44 Postby TampaSteve » Wed Sep 06, 2006 9:28 am

SouthFloridawx wrote:I have a really hard time going against all these models being in such tight agreement. I know things can shift and change and this and that but, that is no less than a very good consensus in the models. If something changes they will change thier mind.

Image


Wow...that's pretty much a mortal lock for a fish storm...but I'm not going to stop worrying about Flo until she starts gaining latitude.
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#45 Postby Evil Jeremy » Wed Sep 06, 2006 9:30 am

but they keep on insisting a more northward motion than what is happening!
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#46 Postby Lifesgud2 » Wed Sep 06, 2006 9:33 am

:fishing:
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#47 Postby SouthFloridawx » Wed Sep 06, 2006 9:34 am

What I am referring to is not the short term motion but, the long term motion of recurvature and the fact that the models are all over this. If we start seeing models moving more west then I will start to believe that this recurve is a little less likely but, as far as short term movement we'll see the corrections.
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#48 Postby Meso » Wed Sep 06, 2006 11:30 am

Image
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#49 Postby Epsilon_Fan » Wed Sep 06, 2006 11:43 am

well, all except for one of the models show a recurve... that's a good sign but they have been wrong in the past :roll:
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#50 Postby skysummit » Wed Sep 06, 2006 11:44 am

Epsilon_Fan wrote:well, all except for one of the models show a recurve... that's a good sign but they have been wrong in the past :roll:


Which one doesn't show a recurve?
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#51 Postby SouthFloridawx » Wed Sep 06, 2006 12:13 pm

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#52 Postby SouthFloridawx » Wed Sep 06, 2006 12:18 pm

It's weird that no one is commenting on the NOGAPS run. Shows a system SSE of Florence.
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#53 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Wed Sep 06, 2006 12:19 pm

Is it me or has the NOGAPS done a remarkable job this year with Trpoical Cyclones?
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#54 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Wed Sep 06, 2006 12:20 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:It's weird that no one is commenting on the NOGAPS run. Shows a system SSE of Florence.


Swear it was Coincidence...
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#55 Postby SouthFloridawx » Wed Sep 06, 2006 12:22 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
SouthFloridawx wrote:It's weird that no one is commenting on the NOGAPS run. Shows a system SSE of Florence.


Swear it was Coincidence...

That is weird. :D
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#56 Postby SouthFloridawx » Wed Sep 06, 2006 12:37 pm

035
WHXX04 KWBC 061731
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE 06L

INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 6

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 18.3 50.7 290./ 9.9
6 18.5 51.1 293./ 4.2
12 19.2 51.8 319./10.2
18 20.1 52.7 312./12.5
24 21.2 54.0 311./16.1
30 22.0 55.3 301./14.8
36 22.7 56.6 298./13.6
42 23.2 58.1 291./14.7
48 23.8 59.7 289./16.0
54 24.4 60.8 296./11.4
60 24.8 62.0 293./11.4
66 25.4 63.0 300./11.4
72 26.2 64.2 303./13.0
78 27.0 64.9 319./ 9.7
84 27.9 65.8 315./11.9
90 28.8 66.4 329./11.0
96 29.9 66.7 343./10.9
102 31.1 66.7 359./12.3
108 32.3 66.4 13./12.3
114 33.8 66.0 18./15.4
120 35.5 65.1 26./18.7
126 37.2 64.2 28./18.1
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#57 Postby Meso » Wed Sep 06, 2006 5:15 pm

MM5 12z Model Run At 114 Hours

Wow,sure looks like that could cause some trouble for Bermuda!
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#58 Postby huricanwatcher » Wed Sep 06, 2006 5:42 pm

why dont these runs make me feel any better... ?
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#59 Postby Meso » Wed Sep 06, 2006 5:51 pm

You shouldn't worry... new GFS has it more east than the last run I think.. nowhere near the US
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#60 Postby cinlfla » Wed Sep 06, 2006 5:53 pm

These are the best kinds of storms to track and learn from and then out to sea they go :wink:


providing it leaves bermuda alone.
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