T.S Florence Models Thread

[Rainband]

GFS 06z Model Run

Sorry, Don't buy it...How is this Storm going to break down that High from the NW merging with the High in the Atlantic?

The trof will do that.

[SouthFloridawx]

I have a really hard time going against all these models being in such tight agreement. I know things can shift and change and this and that but, that is no less than a very good consensus in the models. If something changes they will change thier mind.

[weatherwoman]

looks like a sure bet a fish

[TampaSteve]

I have a really hard time going against all these models being in such tight agreement. I know things can shift and change and this and that but, that is no less than a very good consensus in the models. If something changes they will change thier mind.

Wow...that's pretty much a mortal lock for a fish storm...but I'm not going to stop worrying about Flo until she starts gaining latitude.

[Evil Jeremy]

but they keep on insisting a more northward motion than what is happening!

[Lifesgud2]

[SouthFloridawx]

What I am referring to is not the short term motion but, the long term motion of recurvature and the fact that the models are all over this. If we start seeing models moving more west then I will start to believe that this recurve is a little less likely but, as far as short term movement we'll see the corrections.

[Meso]

[Epsilon_Fan]

well, all except for one of the models show a recurve... that's a good sign but they have been wrong in the past

[skysummit]

well, all except for one of the models show a recurve... that's a good sign but they have been wrong in the past

Which one doesn't show a recurve?

[SouthFloridawx]

Model Runs so far:

CMC 12Z = 144 Hours
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... hour=144hr

GFS12Z = 144 Hours
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=144hr

NOGAPS 12Z = 144 Hours
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/WXM ... lantic.gif

UKMET 12Z = 144 Hours
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... hour=144hr

Model Runs can be found here:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
Nogaps = https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... p_atlantic

[SouthFloridawx]

It's weird that no one is commenting on the NOGAPS run. Shows a system SSE of Florence.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Is it me or has the NOGAPS done a remarkable job this year with Trpoical Cyclones?

[DESTRUCTION5]

It's weird that no one is commenting on the NOGAPS run. Shows a system SSE of Florence.

Swear it was Coincidence...

[SouthFloridawx]

It's weird that no one is commenting on the NOGAPS run. Shows a system SSE of Florence.

Swear it was Coincidence...

That is weird.

[SouthFloridawx]

035
WHXX04 KWBC 061731
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE 06L

INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 6
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 18.3 50.7 290./ 9.9
6 18.5 51.1 293./ 4.2
12 19.2 51.8 319./10.2
18 20.1 52.7 312./12.5
24 21.2 54.0 311./16.1
30 22.0 55.3 301./14.8
36 22.7 56.6 298./13.6
42 23.2 58.1 291./14.7
48 23.8 59.7 289./16.0
54 24.4 60.8 296./11.4
60 24.8 62.0 293./11.4
66 25.4 63.0 300./11.4
72 26.2 64.2 303./13.0
78 27.0 64.9 319./ 9.7
84 27.9 65.8 315./11.9
90 28.8 66.4 329./11.0
96 29.9 66.7 343./10.9
102 31.1 66.7 359./12.3
108 32.3 66.4 13./12.3
114 33.8 66.0 18./15.4
120 35.5 65.1 26./18.7
126 37.2 64.2 28./18.1

[Meso]

MM5 12z Model Run At 114 Hours

Wow,sure looks like that could cause some trouble for Bermuda!

[huricanwatcher]

why dont these runs make me feel any better... ?

[Meso]

You shouldn't worry... new GFS has it more east than the last run I think.. nowhere near the US

[cinlfla]

These are the best kinds of storms to track and learn from and then out to sea they go


providing it leaves bermuda alone.