No Recurvature???

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sfwx
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#61 Postby sfwx » Wed Sep 06, 2006 3:16 pm

This pretty much sums it up for Florida :)

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
255 PM EDT WED SEP 6 2006


SAT-WED...TROPICAL CYCLONE FLORENCE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL EAST
OF CENTRAL FLORIDA. VIRTUALLY ALL 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG
AGREEMENT IN TURNING FLORENCE NORTH BEFORE REACHING 70W LONGITUDE.

THE RESULTING IMPACT TO THE FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE BUILDING
INCOMING SWELL LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK INCREASING THE
THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE AS A DRIER NE
FLOW DEVELOPS BY MONDAY DUE TO COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTH AND CIRCULATION AROUND FLORENCE. WILL KEEP 20% POPS ALG THE
COAST MON-WED WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES INTERIOR.
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#62 Postby fci » Wed Sep 06, 2006 3:23 pm

gatorcane wrote:
Frank2 wrote:Yes - in fact, it might be the first genuine cool weather for Florida since late March...

Frank


Could be. I am actually predicting the hurricane season will end a bit early this year as the EC troughs have dominated all summer it seems.
could be a colder than normal winter I'm afraid.


Boy a "colder than normal winter" is GREAT to me.
As long as crops aren't destroyed by freezes, I personally WELCOME a colder than normal winter.

Especially because it usually indicates that the North is even colder than normal whcih brings more tourists down here and more money in our coffers!

Sorry for the off topic post...

Now back to the regularly scheduled Tropic Talk
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#63 Postby fci » Wed Sep 06, 2006 3:25 pm

Damar91 wrote:
gatorcane wrote:
Damar91 wrote:
Frank2 wrote:Yes - in fact, it might be the first genuine cool weather for Florida since late March...

Frank


Cool weather in Sept? Lived here all my life and I never remember anything about Florida resembling cool in Sept. I guess there is a first for everything.


Actually not true. I grew up over in the Tampa area (before coming from New Jersey) and back in the 80s the first cooler air came through by Sept 15th or so - but it seems that lately that doesn't happen anymore (I think it is global warming)

Now in South Florida certainly we usually have to wait until late Oct to really get some cool/pleasant air here.


I can believe that because Central Florida is always cooler than down here in the fall. Growing up in Davie, it was never cold until maybe Dec.


Last year was cold after Wilma as the front dragged her up here.
Made living with no power a whole lot easier for a while.
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#64 Postby Damar91 » Wed Sep 06, 2006 3:29 pm

Yes it did. The only thing I really hated about having no power was the cold showers. Other than that, I could have gone on for a while!
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Scorpion

#65 Postby Scorpion » Wed Sep 06, 2006 3:31 pm

I strongly disagree on this trough bringing anything resembling cool. It's early September for christs sake. I remember the absolute earliest it has gotten cool here was around mid-October.
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#66 Postby Damar91 » Wed Sep 06, 2006 3:34 pm

Scorpion wrote:I strongly disagree on this trough bringing anything resembling cool. It's early September for christs sake. I remember the absolute earliest it has gotten cool here was around mid-October.


What's Christ got to do with it? Sorry, just a little sensitive with His name being used that way.
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#67 Postby fci » Wed Sep 06, 2006 3:37 pm

Well, one can tell that there will be a recurvature and no threat to the US based on how this thread has been diverted from the subject title!

:lol: :lol:
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#68 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Wed Sep 06, 2006 3:46 pm

I hope Florence doesn't pull a Jeanne on us. So far this year Alberto took a track like Bonnie of 2004, Beryl took a similar track up the East coast like Alex, Chris disappated somewhere near the same longitude as Earl, and Ernesto took a track up FL similar to Charley.
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00Z GEM has..

#69 Postby breamer » Thu Sep 07, 2006 7:57 am

http://wxforecaster.com/ncep/java/new/test/all.html

It going directly into Nova Scotia

Can someone verify what I am seeing?
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#70 Postby alan1961 » Thu Sep 07, 2006 8:56 am

its got a 50-50 chance of nova scotia breamer..another chance it has of not recurving as much as the models say it does, is if the struggle it is having presently carries on and it stays on the weak side( tropical storm status), that could keep it more on a wnw movement..its going to be interesting to see where it eventually finds more strength from because the pros keep adding a day to tropical storm status as opposed to upgrading to hurricane status..anyone can see Florence is battling all sorts of shear and ULL'S, so my theory is if she stays weak for longer than anticipated wouldn't that recurve come later and maybe put the east coast at a higher hit percentage?

any opinions on this?
Last edited by alan1961 on Thu Sep 07, 2006 9:21 am, edited 1 time in total.
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So...

#71 Postby breamer » Thu Sep 07, 2006 9:01 am

Weaker systems tend to meander more and a 'tigher' system ie) hurricane can get carried away by virtue of it's spinning.

Well, I am in Prince Edward Island, and I went through Juan, peak gusts were 168kmh so think I will get some gas for the generator

Thanks
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#72 Postby windnrain » Thu Sep 07, 2006 9:12 am

Here's an idea... and this may be a weird one, but it may be a devistating one as well... has anyone considered a long island-Maine landfall? Is such even possible?
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#73 Postby alan1961 » Thu Sep 07, 2006 9:18 am

windnrain wrote:Here's an idea... and this may be a weird one, but it may be a devistating one as well... has anyone considered a long island-Maine landfall? Is such even possible?


Anythings possible if it were to stay weak wind..like i said in the above post.. :wink:
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#74 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Thu Sep 07, 2006 9:19 am

Worst I've went through (other than Andrew in South Florida) was the Hybridstorm in November 2001 (thus my nick); sustained winds of 50 mph/81 km/h, gusting up to 85 mph/137 km/h, for over 12 hr. I sure hope I don't have to go through something like that again anytime soon. FLO stay away.
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#75 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Sep 07, 2006 9:51 am

Ok this is the second time I lost my mind for a moment this morning.

I posted this in the other thread but, I guess it is more appropriate here.

I was wondering something about a forecast discussion from stewart the other day. He was talking about a shortwave expected to weaken the ridge enough to allow for a fairly quick recurve as all the models have been progging for a couple of days now.

I have since that discussion have not heard the forecasters mention the shortwave. Is this shortwave they expected still supposed to be the catalyst for the ridge weakening on the west flank to allow for recurvature?

ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 05 2006

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT TD-6 HAS
CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS INTENSIFIED INTO VERY
LARGE TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT IS
BASED ON WIND DATA FROM 05/0836Z QUIKSCAT AND 05/1002 SSMI
OVERPASSES THAT REVEALED LARGE PATCHES OF 30-35 KT UNCONTAMINATED
WINDS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. IT COULD BE ARGUED THAT STRONGER
WINDS EXIST IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...BUT THAT ASSESSMENT CAN
WAIT UNTIL THE NEXT ADVISORY PACKAGE TO SEE IF CONVECTION PERSISTS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/11. THE AFOREMENTIONED QUIKSCAT
OVERPASS AND ALSO ONE AT 04/2130Z NOW CLEARLY INDICATE THAT THE
BROAD CIRCULATION CENTER IS FARTHER SOUTH BY AT LEAST 40 NMI THAN
INDICATED IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES. THE ADVISORY POSITION IS ROUGHLY
MIDWAY BETWEEN TWO SMALLER CIRCULATIONS -- ONE IN THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT AND ONE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT THAT PASSED BY NOAA
BUOY 41041 EARLIER THIS MORNING. OTHER THAN RELOCATING THE CENTER
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED
FROM THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL ADVISORIES. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS
ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
...WHICH IS MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE SOUTHERLY INITIAL
POSITION. THE LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH THAT WILL BE THE
MAIN STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE NEXT 4-5 DAYS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
FLORENCE MOVING IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION. BY DAY 5...ALL
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST THAT A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO ERODE THE RIDGE TO NORTH OF FLORENCE AND ALLOW
THE SYSTEM TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND INTO THE WEAKNESS. THE
VERDICT IS STILL OUT ON THE SCENARIO GIVEN THE RELATIVE WEAKNESS OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH INDICATED IN THE MODEL WIND FIELDS.
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#76 Postby alan1961 » Thu Sep 07, 2006 9:52 am

Believe it or not..here in England we sometimes get the remnants of Hurricanes coming across the atlantic on the gulf stream/jetstream and their was one instance in 1987 that Hurricane Floyd could have been a contributing factor in a atlantic depression that formed well off the African coast and deepened very considerably in the Bay of Biscay before running across southern England and causing widespread damage..one of the tv meteorologists that was giving out is forecast at the time was contacted by a member of the public because she had heard that there was a hurricane coming and the forecaster assured her that it wasn't a hurricane but just a deep depression..it never actually had hurricane sustained winds but the gusts were well over hurricane strength and that guy was forever taunted about this :D The great storm of 87!

Here is the story if anyone is interested.

http://www.stvincent.ac.uk/Resources/We ... oct87.html

Sorry if this was slightly off topic
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#77 Postby jusforsean » Thu Sep 07, 2006 12:31 pm

What day exactly according to the projected path are we suppose to see it start turning north???
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Derek Ortt

#78 Postby Derek Ortt » Thu Sep 07, 2006 12:34 pm

CMC and GFS are now east of Bermuda
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#79 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 07, 2006 1:07 pm

jusforsean wrote:What day exactly according to the projected path are we suppose to see it start turning north???


Starting on Saturday and especially Sunday.

http://icons.wunderground.com/data/imag ... 6_5day.gif
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#80 Postby jusforsean » Thu Sep 07, 2006 2:28 pm

Brent wrote:
jusforsean wrote:What day exactly according to the projected path are we suppose to see it start turning north???


Starting on Saturday and especially Sunday.

http://icons.wunderground.com/data/imag ... 6_5day.gif


Duh, I could have looked at that i wasnt thinking! Thanks for the reply. So by sat sun we should have an idea of her plan.
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