mwd possible development

[weatherwindow]

from the 130am MWD from the TAFB....SOME INDICATION FROM THE GFS MODEL OF A NEW TROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR 10N37W BUT WILL WAIT TO SEE IF FURTHER RUNS OF THE MODEL CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS FEAUTURE....perhaps a bit of interest...georges 1998 formed in near this area on 9/15 and with some indications of a more contiguous ridge, post florence, which has been alluded to in other posts, perhaps this prospective system wont be subject to early recurvature.......rich

[SouthFloridawx]

Rich,

I was looking at the strong ridge that is going to build in after Flo and it's east coast counterpart. I think we'll see some increased activity in the coming weeks and I see no reason to dispell that the season is over. Even if we might be in a slight El Nino, doesn't that mainly affect the Caribbean with above normal shear.

With a strong ridge building in and east coast troughs I think we may see a Decent cane try to make a run at the East Coast US. This season is far from over.

[Sanibel]

Just came in to report on the little "undercane" tracking on the ITCZ below all that Florence business.

[SouthFloridawx]

00Z Model runs show development down towards that region.
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/em ... single.gif

As did the 06Z
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/em ... single.gif

Obviously it's not well organized but, lets see if the GFS and other model trend some development down there.

[Sanibel]

TWC said this little round wave of yesterday busted today with no signs of formation.