Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:But some mosquito have proven to kill you. So be very careful forecasting.
That may be true, but only one skeeto will try to keep you safe...
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If you had bothered to read my post carefully you would have noticed that i never used the word (bash)fci wrote:PERK:
I don't find wxman57's comments on Joe B to be bashing.
I find them refreshing.
If anyone is allowed to question a scientist's opinions; it is a fellow credentialled scientist.
Onward wxman57; please don't stop telling us how you feel about the storms and the people who follow them!
WindRunner wrote:Anyone else thinking that that track could shift a little westward over the coming days, like, ummm, towards Bermuda?
fci wrote:
Onward wxman57; please don't stop telling us how you feel about the storms and the people who follow them!
MICROWAVE OVERPASSES BY QUIKSCAT AND SSMI...AND SEVERAL FORTUITOUS
SHIP OBSERVATIONS HAVE MADE FINDING THE CENTER A LITTLE EASIER THAN
USUAL FOR A DEPRESSION. IT HAD BEEN MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...BUT MORE RECENTLY IT APPEARS TO BE
HEADING SLOWLY WESTWARD OR 270/5. STEERING CURRENTS ARE OBVIOUSLY
RATHER WEAK...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS ESSENTIALLY DO NOT KNOW THE
DEPRESSION EXISTS. THE GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SUGGEST A STEERING
PATTERN THAT WOULD TURN THE DEPRESSION SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...INTO
THE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LEFT BEHIND BY FLORENCE. THE
GFS-BASED BAM TRAJECTORIES SHOW RECURVATURE INTO THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES BY DAY 4 OR 5. THE GFDL FORECASTS AN IMMEDIATE
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THAT LASTS FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS UNTIL THE
MODEL CIRCULATION DISSIPATES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE
PATH OF THE BAM MODELS...BUT NOT AS QUICKLY...SINCE GLOBAL MODELS
OTHER THAN THE GFS SUGGEST THE TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD MEANDER
WITHIN THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THIS IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN
FORECAST...AND THE NORTHWARD MOTION LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD CAN
BE INTERPRETED TO MEAN WE ARE NOT YET SURE IF THIS CYCLONE WILL
RECURVE.
The official forecast follows the
path of the BAM models...but not as quickly...since global models
other than the GFS suggest the tropical cyclone could meander
within the weakness in the ridge. This is a highly uncertain
forecast...and the northward motion late in the forecast period can
be interpreted to mean we are not yet sure if this cyclone will
recurve.
wxmann_91 wrote:WindRunner wrote:Anyone else thinking that that track could shift a little westward over the coming days, like, ummm, towards Bermuda?
It won't come near Bermuda most likely, Florence is huge and will leave a huge weakness. Only chance is if it moves into the Caribbean and bypasses the weakness, but the chances of that, well, are infinitesmal.
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