Tropical Storm Gordon,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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SkeetoBite
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#321 Postby SkeetoBite » Sun Sep 10, 2006 9:30 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:But some mosquito have proven to kill you. So be very careful forecasting. :eek:


That may be true, but only one skeeto will try to keep you safe...
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kevin

#322 Postby kevin » Sun Sep 10, 2006 9:36 pm

I'd agree that bashing is going too far. Questioning a person's science on things that don't deal with science is unwelcome. But critical review is very beneficial. Its peer review. The respect is that you are being reviewed by members of the community who you in turn review. As long as a scientist acknowledges another as a person pursuing science, they may disagree but its within the system.

I'll refrain and let someone more knowledgeable continue.
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#323 Postby fci » Sun Sep 10, 2006 9:41 pm

PERK:
I don't find wxman57's comments on Joe B to be bashing.
I find them refreshing.

If anyone is allowed to question a scientist's opinions; it is a fellow credentialled scientist.

Onward wxman57; please don't stop telling us how you feel about the storms and the people who follow them!

:clap:
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#324 Postby perk » Sun Sep 10, 2006 9:45 pm

fci wrote:PERK:
I don't find wxman57's comments on Joe B to be bashing.
I find them refreshing.

If anyone is allowed to question a scientist's opinions; it is a fellow credentialled scientist.

Onward wxman57; please don't stop telling us how you feel about the storms and the people who follow them!

:clap:
If you had bothered to read my post carefully you would have noticed that i never used the word (bash)
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#325 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 10, 2006 9:48 pm

Can we stop this now,Cycloneye blows a horn!!!!!

Can we talk about TD 7 please?
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#326 Postby Brent » Sun Sep 10, 2006 9:52 pm

Image
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#neversummer

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#327 Postby beachbum_al » Sun Sep 10, 2006 9:53 pm

Yes, lets please talk about TD 7. Now where is TD 7 headed? What is ahead of it?

Thanks Brent. I posted the above about the same time you were posting that.
Last edited by beachbum_al on Sun Sep 10, 2006 9:54 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#328 Postby perk » Sun Sep 10, 2006 9:53 pm

cycloneye wrote:Can we stop this now,Cycloneye blows a horn!!!!!

Can we talk about TD 7 please?
Cycloneye sorry about that, and on to TD7. :D
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#329 Postby Brent » Sun Sep 10, 2006 9:53 pm

Delete
Last edited by Brent on Sun Sep 10, 2006 9:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#330 Postby perk » Sun Sep 10, 2006 9:54 pm

cycloneye wrote:Can we stop this now,Cycloneye blows a horn!!!!!

Can we talk about TD 7 please?
Cycloneye sorry about that, and on to TD7. :D
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#331 Postby WindRunner » Sun Sep 10, 2006 9:57 pm

Anyone else thinking that that track could shift a little westward over the coming days, like, ummm, towards Bermuda?
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#332 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 10, 2006 9:58 pm

Image
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#333 Postby Sanibel » Sun Sep 10, 2006 9:58 pm

The only reason TD7 looks like it is headed west is because it is sheared from the north.
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#334 Postby wxmann_91 » Sun Sep 10, 2006 9:59 pm

WindRunner wrote:Anyone else thinking that that track could shift a little westward over the coming days, like, ummm, towards Bermuda?


It won't come near Bermuda most likely, Florence is huge and will leave a huge weakness. Only chance is if it moves into the Caribbean and bypasses the weakness, but the chances of that, well, are infinitesmal.

Somewhat like 1981. Active CV season, first storm was big and left a weakness that stuck around all season, and recurved every CV storm thereafter.
Last edited by wxmann_91 on Sun Sep 10, 2006 10:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#335 Postby Bgator » Sun Sep 10, 2006 9:59 pm

No it is heading west right now....The NHC says so to...it may change int he future but at the moment its west,...
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#336 Postby boca » Sun Sep 10, 2006 10:00 pm

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Like I said yesterday when a lot of posters said the high would build in not the case. Florence created a weakness of which TD7 will follow becausse theirs really no strong high pressure out their which would keep this westerly. The only landmass who has to be concerned about this one is Bermuda and maybe TD7 will miss to the east.
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#337 Postby wxman57 » Sun Sep 10, 2006 10:01 pm

fci wrote:
Onward wxman57; please don't stop telling us how you feel about the storms and the people who follow them!

:clap:


I never say what I feel, I say what I think based upon all the evidence. ;-)

It would appear that the NHC is going with recurvature east of Florence. Looks quite reasonable to me.
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#338 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sun Sep 10, 2006 10:03 pm

From the disco:

MICROWAVE OVERPASSES BY QUIKSCAT AND SSMI...AND SEVERAL FORTUITOUS
SHIP OBSERVATIONS HAVE MADE FINDING THE CENTER A LITTLE EASIER THAN
USUAL FOR A DEPRESSION. IT HAD BEEN MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...BUT MORE RECENTLY IT APPEARS TO BE
HEADING SLOWLY WESTWARD OR 270/5. STEERING CURRENTS ARE OBVIOUSLY
RATHER WEAK...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS ESSENTIALLY DO NOT KNOW THE
DEPRESSION EXISTS. THE GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SUGGEST A STEERING
PATTERN THAT WOULD TURN THE DEPRESSION SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...INTO
THE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LEFT BEHIND BY FLORENCE. THE
GFS-BASED BAM TRAJECTORIES SHOW RECURVATURE INTO THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES BY DAY 4 OR 5. THE GFDL FORECASTS AN IMMEDIATE
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THAT LASTS FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS UNTIL THE
MODEL CIRCULATION DISSIPATES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE
PATH OF THE BAM MODELS...BUT NOT AS QUICKLY...SINCE GLOBAL MODELS
OTHER THAN THE GFS SUGGEST THE TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD MEANDER
WITHIN THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THIS IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN
FORECAST...AND THE NORTHWARD MOTION LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD CAN
BE INTERPRETED TO MEAN WE ARE NOT YET SURE IF THIS CYCLONE WILL
RECURVE.
Last edited by Extremeweatherguy on Sun Sep 10, 2006 10:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#339 Postby Bgator » Sun Sep 10, 2006 10:04 pm

From the 11PM discussion:

The official forecast follows the
path of the BAM models...but not as quickly...since global models
other than the GFS suggest the tropical cyclone could meander
within the weakness in the ridge. This is a highly uncertain
forecast...and the northward motion late in the forecast period can
be interpreted to mean we are not yet sure if this cyclone will
recurve.
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#340 Postby WindRunner » Sun Sep 10, 2006 10:06 pm

wxmann_91 wrote:
WindRunner wrote:Anyone else thinking that that track could shift a little westward over the coming days, like, ummm, towards Bermuda?


It won't come near Bermuda most likely, Florence is huge and will leave a huge weakness. Only chance is if it moves into the Caribbean and bypasses the weakness, but the chances of that, well, are infinitesmal.


I'm just seeing that Seven is going to remain a relatively shallow system (or it is at least per NHC), and combine that with the fact that it has moved 1.3° south over the past 36h (plus another .1S from 11/00Z to 11/03Z), I don't see the sudden NW turn in the short term. The only thing going for it in term of this turn to the north is that it's slow forward speed will allow for it to make a tighter turn. I guess we'll have to see in the morning. I don't think that Seven will have gotten past 20.4N by 11am.
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