Possible GOM homegrown soon?

#1 Postby **TreasureIslandFLGal** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 6:59 am

Our local mets were hinting at the possibility of a Low developing off the west coast of Florida over the next few days.

What's do all you Pros think about this likelihood? Could something tropical develop soon in the gulf? If so, what is the strength potential and likely direction?

bucman1 · #2 Postby **bucman1** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 7:18 am

Good morning Treasure Island,

With all that untapped warm gulf water what do you think about a storm cooking up right away??

LaBreeze · #3 Postby **LaBreeze** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 9:43 am

If anything develops there it should be heading off to the NE, right? With the strong fronts that we are expected to have in the GOM that is.

#4 Postby **TreasureIslandFLGal** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 10:18 am

I would think that a N or NE motion would be expected. Maybe something is supposed to develop on the tail end of a stalled front, who knows. I just heard a little blurb and they didn't elaborate much, just indicated the possibility.

I wonder if JB alluded to anything about this. He always seems to be one of the first to point at potential development areas, even if they are very broad, general possibilities.

#5 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 10:21 am

I'm not saying this has anything to do with it, but this morning, along the coast of south Louisiana, the clouds have that "tropical look" to them...with the low whispy white cumulous clouds and the dark blue backgrounds. It's especially evident in the Morgan City area. This is the same way the clouds look when there's a low pressure developing in the gulf. I'm NOT saying that's happening.

LaBreeze · #6 Postby **LaBreeze** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 3:02 pm

I noticed that too skysummit.

Emmett_Brown · #7 Postby **Emmett_Brown** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 3:33 pm

I dont know if anything specific forecasted by the models regarding lows in the gulf, but the upper level pattern looks favorable for development should a low form... nice anticyclone over the SE gulf depicted by the GFS in 48 hours:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/3hh_48.gif

Extremeweatherguy · #8 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 4:17 pm

Anything in the Tues-Thurs timeframe will be steered NE by a CF, and anything Friday and beyond will be steered west by a building ridge.

caneman · #9 Postby **caneman** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 4:28 pm

Was gonna start a new thread on this but sure looks like something is trying to get going in the NE Gulf. Lets see if it persists. Probably wouldn't amount to much before ejected out. Definitely seems like an El Nino year here in West Florida as we have been hammered with rain at many different times of the day and night as oppossed to the usual late afternoon seabreeze storms.

ROCK · #10 Postby **ROCK** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 4:54 pm

12Z MM5, for what its worth, still shows some BOC activity for the second run in a row....time to start looking closer to home...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

Extremeweatherguy · #11 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 6:39 pm

ROCK wrote:12Z MM5, for what its worth, still shows some BOC activity for the second run in a row....time to start looking closer to home...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

Hopefully this doesn't play out. With a CF stalled along our coast (and moving back to the N at the end of the period), this type of system would likely ride up the TX shoreline before either turning W and going inland or turning NE and heading to other areas in the Gulf. Someone, somewhere in the GOM would likely be impacted by this scenario.

ROCK · #12 Postby **ROCK** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 6:48 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
ROCK wrote:12Z MM5, for what its worth, still shows some BOC activity for the second run in a row....time to start looking closer to home...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
Hopefully this doesn't play out. With a CF stalled along our coast (and moving back to the N at the end of the period), this type of system would likely ride up the state of TX shoreline before either turning W and going inland or turning NE and heading to other areas in the Gulf. Someone, somewhere in the GOM would likely be impacted by this scenario.

exactly.....take a look at the EURO at 96 then 120. 96 you have a low in the BOC then riding up towards NMEX eventually moving into NMEX.

http://www.ecmwf.int/

plenty of potential left in the GOM.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

jenmrk · #13 Postby **jenmrk** » Tue Sep 12, 2006 12:41 am

What is that blob off of the west coast of Florida?
Anything to watch?

mike815 · #14 Postby **mike815** » Tue Sep 12, 2006 12:43 am

whos growin what in there home? looks like a bunch of rain to me.

Aric Dunn · #15 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Tue Sep 12, 2006 12:44 am

jenmrk wrote:What is that blob off of the west coast of Florida?
Anything to watch?

Rain.. with a light chance of thunder

'CaneFreak · #16 Postby **'CaneFreak** » Tue Sep 12, 2006 12:45 am

I know what I am growing in my home....and I roll it up...and smoke it till I get tired...

mike815 · #17 Postby **mike815** » Tue Sep 12, 2006 12:45 am

VERY LIGHT? :roll:

jenmrk · #18 Postby **jenmrk** » Tue Sep 12, 2006 12:50 am

whos growin what in there home? looks like a bunch of rain to me.

Not growing anything here... :oops:

Maybe if I was I could get some sleep ,sorry I have a lot to learn about the weather and with the season being like it is any little blob in the GOM gets my attention. I guess even if it is a stupid question the only way to know the differance is to ask...lol :lol:

mike815 · #19 Postby **mike815** » Tue Sep 12, 2006 12:51 am

oh thats cool man just havin some fun. hey u can go with cane freak to his home and roll one up.

Aric Dunn · #20 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Tue Sep 12, 2006 12:52 am

no its good to ask we are just tired and bored ....... lol

Possible GOM homegrown soon?

Possible GOM homegrown soon?

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