CPC: El Niño conditions have developed

[Trader Ron]

We are going to freeze our buns off this winter. In 2002 a weak El-Nino developed. and everyone remembers that very cold snowy winter in the Eastern U.S. in 02/03.
The pattern will be different this winter compared to 04/05 and 05/06. I see much colder conditions with heavier snowfall.

I sent out a preliminary forecast/heads up on _June 2nd _of this year to many different people in the news, local MET's, and some even at TWC etc...about this developing EL Nino and the possible chance of us having the coldest winter in 30 years around the northeast/mid-Atlantic.

I am sure most thought that this El Nino/winter outlook was absurd. How many of them think this now?

There are one or two more variables to consider here but things are still looking good for a colder than normal winter.

I am not to sure about it being the coldest in 30 years though. And why should I have to say this anyway? NOAA and the CPC do not do this. All I have ever asked for is a level playing field. Many may have noticed that this is hard to get. Politics play a major role. Even in weather forums.

Jim, you jumped on this developing El Nino, early on. You are to be commended.

[deltadog03]

actually, the people who should get MOST of the credit is the UKMET office and JB for pointing this out a couple of months ago.

[Extremeweatherguy]

If it is a strong el ninon, the Caribbean and GOM could be shut down for the most part, the remainder of ths season - there is my positive

actually el nino years can feature late season home-grown type storms in the GOM and Caribbean..they usually are weaker systems though with less room to travel (but not always).

Bottom line: Stay on guard...things aren't over yet for sure.

[HurricaneHunter914]

You should have told Wilma that ExtremeWeatherGuy.

[Zardoz]

Is it a possibility that global warming is occuring and this should increase the El Nino event frequency thus decreasing the tropical activity in the Atlantic in the future.

Please it has nothing to do with this.

Climate change does not affect weather patterns?

[canegrl04]

This El Nino will be very interesting to watch over the coming months.I think it will become a moderate El Nino by next spring and wreak much havoc by next fall( on California/US).

[HURRICANELONNY]

I think you mean this fall. El Nino's don't last a year. Should be over by next spring 2007. Will be in a neutral stage by Hurricane season 2007.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

The CBS evening news will have a special on the El Nino that has developed. Looks like to me and i said this a few weeks back the season is over for the Western Gulf and actually i would be very surprised if anything gets in the Gulf the rest of the season.

[canegrl04]

I think you mean this fall. El Nino's don't last a year. Should be over by next spring 2007. Will be in a neutral stage by Hurricane season 2007.

SOme El Nino events stretch out over more than one year.Thats what happened in 1991-1993 although it was a mild one

[bob rulz]

Doesn't it take time for the El Nino conditions to propagate into the Atlantic? The East Pacific shows definite signs of El Nino, but in the Atlantic it still looks very normal and there's still about another month time frame left for more major storms to form. We certainly aren't seeing El Nino conditions in the West Pacific yet. Why is everybody counting out the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea already?

[SouthFloridawx]

As a matter of fact on the page prior to this one I posted the Average Shear for the Caribbean and the GOM. I would agree that it would take time for the effects to propagate to the Atlantic. Perhaps in the next couple to few weeks we'll start seeing above normal with shear there.

Currently the windshear in the Caribbean is due to Upper Level Troughing in the and to the north of the sea.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor1.html

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html
Shear Tendency

[Jim Cantore]

Intresting to see if it effects the season... or does absolutely nothing like 2004.

[johngaltfla]

Jim,any forecast for next summer about el nino lingering thru that time?

That would be very hard call to make at this time frame. At least for me. I think this November is an important key here. Space weather wise. I have forecasted a considerable spike in space weather activity for this time frame. It remains to be seen if I am going to be correct .

The type of space weather activity will tell me certain things about the morphology of the IMF and how this relates to what lies ahead. We are approaching solar minimum and all of this has a meaning in the overall scheme of things from my perspective.

I do have an extended long term outlook. I believe we will be seeing more La Nina's, or at least stronger events, compared to the frequency of El Nino's, during the next 10-12 years as the next solar cycle picks up in strength. I also think we will be seeing a turning trend toward a negative PDO.

Most thought this was occurring in 1998. I think it happens this time around.

Jim, directly (or maybe indirectly) related to this question, I've heard speculation in the propagation circles that we could see an upsurge in activity in October due to some sunspots rotating into the earth view. I have not seen any scientific evidence to support this, but if true, I would love to know more about this and the relationship to GOM hurricane activity.

Keep up the good work....I enjoy reading your posts.

[Jim Hughes]

Jim,any forecast for next summer about el nino lingering thru that time?

That would be very hard call to make at this time frame. At least for me. I think this November is an important key here. Space weather wise. I have forecasted a considerable spike in space weather activity for this time frame. It remains to be seen if I am going to be correct .

The type of space weather activity will tell me certain things about the morphology of the IMF and how this relates to what lies ahead. We are approaching solar minimum and all of this has a meaning in the overall scheme of things from my perspective.

I do have an extended long term outlook. I believe we will be seeing more La Nina's, or at least stronger events, compared to the frequency of El Nino's, during the next 10-12 years as the next solar cycle picks up in strength. I also think we will be seeing a turning trend toward a negative PDO.

Most thought this was occurring in 1998. I think it happens this time around.

Jim, directly (or maybe indirectly) related to this question, I've heard speculation in the propagation circles that we could see an upsurge in activity in October due to some sunspots rotating into the earth view. I have not seen any scientific evidence to support this, but if true, I would love to know more about this and the relationship to GOM hurricane activity.

Keep up the good work....I enjoy reading your posts.

I am unaware of this but someone may be looking at a possible cyclical repeat. I currently am not monitoring every aspect of space weather very closely so maybe someone else is on to something that I am unaware of.
I am doing more research and minor talks etc...

I have to choose my spots because of my limited free time. And things are low key space weather wise right now because of us being so close to solar minimum. So continual all around monitoring gets low priority.

I have a great deal of respect for the people within the radio propagation field especially the DX'rs and I am always trying to learn more about it since it deals with changes in the ionosphere. I posted a URL link to something recently in another weather forum. These were propagation notes from an observer. They might be of some interest to you.

Are you into propagation John?

[HurricaneBill]

Intresting to see if it effects the season... or does absolutely nothing like 2004.

The 2004 El Nino did affect the season. Notice how active the Atlantic was in September, but when October came around, not much development.

I think the 2004-(early) 2005 El Nino is most memorable for:

The series of typhoons lashing Japan.

The 4 intense cyclones that struck Samoa in the SPAC.

[Sanibel]

A real Nino has set up near Panama to Ecuador.

For real this time.

[HURRICANELONNY]

No kidding. I've been posting that on the boards since June. Nobody wants to here that because less Hurricanes. Well we got 2 names possibly 3 by the weekend with 1 cat. 3. Just think if El Nino didn't come. The experts kept saying spring signals is when they can tell if a El Nino is coming. They have alot to study about Nino's. They even have a story on AOL homepage this morning about it.

[Jim Hughes]

Is it a possibility that global warming is occuring and this should increase the El Nino event frequency thus decreasing the tropical activity in the Atlantic in the future.

Please it has nothing to do with this.

Climate change does not affect weather patterns?

Sure it can. But I was just commenting on how you connected the dots here. I believe space weather effects the El Nino and La Nina more then anything else.

As for the tropics. Well the AMO could still be in a heightened state with a cooler stratosphere down the road. And I believe the La Nina will trump the El Nino next solar cycle.

So the tropics could be just as active if the AMO stays heightened. I believe only 1-2 moderate to strong El Ninos will be seen overall.

We have had at least three and maybe four (If you count 06 & 04-05) during this solar cycle since it began in May 1996.

[Patrick99]

Bah. Well, at least we'll get a wet, warm winter out of it....lot of impulses riding along the subtropical jet. Should be a welcome change from the typical horribly boring nothing-but-blue-sky-for-months FL winter weather.

[Sanibel]

People who don't live here don't realize Florida has nearly perfect sunny days every day from like November to May. I mean warm, brightly-sunny, perfect weather every single day. It gets to the point where you feel good on an overcast day.

An El Nino is supposed to make it rain more and be cooler during this dry season.