Hurricane Helene,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Derek Ortt]

it has a more northerly track, at least the 6Z did. That seems more likely than the GFS, which may just be GFS yet again

[Steve H.]

I would stay on top of this storm if I were in Eastern New England. Based on the GFS hooking Helene up with a front and low pressure approaching the NE in the long term. Again something to watch, not get concerned about yet. For the GOM and SE US, the season isn't over by a long shot. I would watch the SW Caribbean the next 2 weeks for something to brew. Some interesting scenarios setting up, even the BOC could see development if shear lets up.

[OuterBanker]

It seems each year one model will do better than the others. So far this year its been the Euro. It is a believer in the fish therory (so far).

[curtadams]

The relevant issue is what happens to the front. If the front weren't there Helene would be a threat to the EC, although she'd still be more likely than not to go fishing. Previously everybody - mets and models - agreed the front coming off the EC in 4 days or so would be a total monster, meaning regardless of what happens before then, Helene would be going fishing. Now the GFS sees the front almost evaporating as it moves off the coast, and NOGAPS has it somewhat weak. Other models, and it seems most mets, still expect a whopper. The globals are more useful forecasting the gyrations of the polar jet in a couple of days so it means more than a five-day hurricane track - but remember other models like the UKMET and the CMC still show a mighty front swatting Helene out to sea like Babe Ruth hitting a homer and they also are good at forecasting the polar jet.

IMO:
Chance of land effect (other than Newfoundland) given the GFS scenario = 40%
Chance of GFS being the right one of four models = 25%
Chance of land effect other than Newfoundland: 10%

There's a additional chance of an effect on Newfoundland since the CMC shows a transitioning or remnant Helene on the SE Newfoundland coast as the trough pushes it.

[Bgator]

Looking at 300mb mean layer analysis maps, there is a weakness to the NNW of helene and it seems to be trying to go there, but i dont think it will make it, if this was a bit more west at the moment, it would be under a stronger high, and it would be moving due west right now....AM i reading it right derek?

[trugunz]

ragged eye

[Bgator]

If Gordon was not here, there would be no weakness for it to be moivng NW now, it would be going west, and we may be in trouble...BUT gordon is there, making it move towards him..>!

[CalmBeforeStorm]

I NEVER base a forecast off of the GFS. Too many things that have not made dynamical sense the last few years with that model (even when it had the track of Ernesto correct, it was right for completely the wrong reason)

I would think it would be wise not to base a forecast on any one model nor to ignore any model, particularly one that is blended into so many others.

[Derek Ortt]

correction about what I said about the G-IV

There is supposed to be a G-IV flight the next two days.

In addition, there is scheduled to be recon in there tomorrow and Monday as a part of a research SALEX mission (NOAA 42)

[Thunder44]

Model map from weatherunderground updated. It shows the 12z runs in there except for the NOGAPS which was about the still the same on 12z. The GFDL shifted a little further and is more line with the UKMET.

[WeatherTracker]

all the models are in agreement....

[Bgator]

I am now starting to think that it will make this weaknes that gordon is leaving behind..if it was 5 degrees west, it would not, but its still heading NW towards it....

[WeatherTracker]

Ragged eye forming....

[Stormavoider]

all the models are in agreement....

They agree it's not going SE.

[WeatherTracker]

i think the GFDL and Th UKM have the best handle on this system

[Bgator]

At first i thouhg maybe he GFS would be right, but i think that the GFDl will end up being right....I see the weakness that they want to bring it through and i think it has a chance to...

[cycloneye]

16/1745 UTC 18.9N 45.8W T4.0/4.0 HELENE -- Atlantic Ocean

[storms in NC]

It is moving a true WNW from what I can see on this loop zoom in. But I can be wrong too. As for the models I would wait a few more runs to see if they come together. Then go from there to where it will make the turn at.

Didn't see that post before I did this one. By thoes numbers it is NW it was at 17.9 N and 44.7 W now 18.9 west and 45.8 N that is NW

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html

[Toadstool]

Model map from weatherunderground updated. It shows the 12z runs in there except for the NOGAPS which was about the still the same on 12z. The GFDL shifted a little further and is more line with the UKMET.

Quite big differences in direction! I think the model computers are saying, "Do you want to play a game?" and the mets that want a fish say "tic-tac-toe" while the mets that want a landfall say "thermalnuclear war".

[Thunder44]

At first i thouhg maybe he GFS would be right, but i think that the GFDl will end up being right....I see the weakness that they want to bring it through and i think it has a chance to...

All the models have it going through the weakness now. That's not the issue. It won't recurve out to sea yet. It is how the GFS handles the trough coming off the East Coast next and the ridge out in the Atlantic early next week next week.