Hurricane Helene,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread
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I would stay on top of this storm if I were in Eastern New England. Based on the GFS hooking Helene up with a front and low pressure approaching the NE in the long term. Again something to watch, not get concerned about yet. For the GOM and SE US, the season isn't over by a long shot. I would watch the SW Caribbean the next 2 weeks for something to brew. Some interesting scenarios setting up, even the BOC could see development if shear lets up.
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The relevant issue is what happens to the front. If the front weren't there Helene would be a threat to the EC, although she'd still be more likely than not to go fishing. Previously everybody - mets and models - agreed the front coming off the EC in 4 days or so would be a total monster, meaning regardless of what happens before then, Helene would be going fishing. Now the GFS sees the front almost evaporating as it moves off the coast, and NOGAPS has it somewhat weak. Other models, and it seems most mets, still expect a whopper. The globals are more useful forecasting the gyrations of the polar jet in a couple of days so it means more than a five-day hurricane track - but remember other models like the UKMET and the CMC still show a mighty front swatting Helene out to sea like Babe Ruth hitting a homer and they also are good at forecasting the polar jet.
IMO:
Chance of land effect (other than Newfoundland) given the GFS scenario = 40%
Chance of GFS being the right one of four models = 25%
Chance of land effect other than Newfoundland: 10%
There's a additional chance of an effect on Newfoundland since the CMC shows a transitioning or remnant Helene on the SE Newfoundland coast as the trough pushes it.
IMO:
Chance of land effect (other than Newfoundland) given the GFS scenario = 40%
Chance of GFS being the right one of four models = 25%
Chance of land effect other than Newfoundland: 10%
There's a additional chance of an effect on Newfoundland since the CMC shows a transitioning or remnant Helene on the SE Newfoundland coast as the trough pushes it.
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Looking at 300mb mean layer analysis maps, there is a weakness to the NNW of helene and it seems to be trying to go there, but i dont think it will make it, if this was a bit more west at the moment, it would be under a stronger high, and it would be moving due west right now....AM i reading it right derek?
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Derek Ortt wrote:I NEVER base a forecast off of the GFS. Too many things that have not made dynamical sense the last few years with that model (even when it had the track of Ernesto correct, it was right for completely the wrong reason)
I would think it would be wise not to base a forecast on any one model nor to ignore any model, particularly one that is blended into so many others.
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16/1745 UTC 18.9N 45.8W T4.0/4.0 HELENE -- Atlantic Ocean
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It is moving a true WNW from what I can see on this loop zoom in. But I can be wrong too. As for the models I would wait a few more runs to see if they come together. Then go from there to where it will make the turn at.
Didn't see that post before I did this one. By thoes numbers it is NW it was at 17.9 N and 44.7 W now 18.9 west and 45.8 N that is NW
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html
Didn't see that post before I did this one. By thoes numbers it is NW it was at 17.9 N and 44.7 W now 18.9 west and 45.8 N that is NW
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html
Last edited by storms in NC on Sat Sep 16, 2006 1:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Bgator wrote:At first i thouhg maybe he GFS would be right, but i think that the GFDl will end up being right....I see the weakness that they want to bring it through and i think it has a chance to...
All the models have it going through the weakness now. That's not the issue. It won't recurve out to sea yet. It is how the GFS handles the trough coming off the East Coast next and the ridge out in the Atlantic early next week next week.
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