Hurricane Helene,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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Brent
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#401 Postby Brent » Sat Sep 16, 2006 8:10 pm

jusforsean wrote:o.k did i miss something? Did the topic on this thread just change and say that the next model runs are out? Mabey I am just tired? I dont see any links to new runs? :roll:


Yeah, the tropical models have run.

http://sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_08.gif
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#402 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 16, 2006 8:12 pm

jusforsean wrote:o.k did i miss something? Did the topic on this thread just change and say that the next model runs are out? Mabey I am just tired? I dont see any links to new runs? :roll:


SkeetoBite Track of Models
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#403 Postby jusforsean » Sat Sep 16, 2006 8:12 pm

Brent wrote:
jusforsean wrote:o.k did i miss something? Did the topic on this thread just change and say that the next model runs are out? Mabey I am just tired? I dont see any links to new runs? :roll:


Yeah, the tropical models have run.

http://sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_08.gif


Thank you! I really thought I was loosing my marbles for a min there!! :D It was one of those moments I had to question if I am on here too long and too often and am now seeing new headings :lol:
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#404 Postby hial2 » Sat Sep 16, 2006 8:20 pm

wxman57 wrote:Yes, interesting 18Z GFS run. As I said in an earlier post, the GFS was the first model to correctly predict the track change on Ernesto. Problem with the GFS is that it's prone to wild swings, so you never really know when to trust it. That doesn't mean it's wrong, though.


Which proves my earlier statement that we put too much credence in models...Who knows what they will show in 6 hours...
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#405 Postby huricanwatcher » Sat Sep 16, 2006 8:26 pm

ummmmmm does anyone notice a slight south west trend to many of the models... dont see this too often with a fish headed off to the north?
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#406 Postby ameriwx2003 » Sat Sep 16, 2006 8:29 pm

wxman57... maybe you can answer this.. Its my understanding that they ran a special SAl investigation missons today and one result of that is for the 18Z model runs the extra data was ingested into the model run.. So maybe the GFS isn't so out to lunch?? Also, the trend of more ridging in the West Atlantic in the longer range would teleconnect with whats happening in the Western Pacific would it not??? whats your thoughts???
Last edited by ameriwx2003 on Sat Sep 16, 2006 8:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#407 Postby sfwx » Sat Sep 16, 2006 8:30 pm

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#408 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 16, 2006 8:30 pm

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#409 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Sat Sep 16, 2006 8:31 pm

Nimbus wrote:At least none ot the models are pointing her towards the islands. Perhaps that westward jog is just a stair step motion rather than Helene getting into the east side of the ridge. Interesting setup, its a little tougher call than we thought it would be.


Speak for yourself. I've been saying that the longe range models have been doing Helene wrong since the start. :wink: :lol:
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#410 Postby sma10 » Sat Sep 16, 2006 8:32 pm

huricanwatcher wrote:ummmmmm does anyone notice a slight south west trend to many of the models... dont see this too often with a fish headed off to the north?


No, you don't see this too often, and it's disconcerting. Let's see what the 00Z models say with all the added data.
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#411 Postby Pebbles » Sat Sep 16, 2006 8:43 pm

Anyone tell me when 00Z Gfdl and ukmet are usually out. Would like to catch them before hitting the sack early tonight and usually don't anticipate the exact time they come out so don't know it. Thanks in advance!
Last edited by Pebbles on Sat Sep 16, 2006 8:48 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#412 Postby wxman57 » Sat Sep 16, 2006 8:44 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:GFS got Ernesto right for all of the wrong reasons. it should not get any credit for being so out to lunch that it got lucky. I did that a few years ago on a dynamics question during my undergrad... prof took off more than half of the points on that question.

Getting something right for the wrong reasons is the same as totally blowing it


Yeah, I know, Derek. The LBAR is even right, sometimes. ;-)

Here are the 00Z model plots, minus BAMs, LBAR, and extrapolated. AVNI is the outlier. It's a projection using what it thinks will be the 00Z GFS run.

Image
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#413 Postby HurricaneQueen » Sat Sep 16, 2006 8:47 pm

sma, you took the words right out of my mouth (fingers). That GFS 18Z run certainly looks very disconcerting. I realize that it is only one run and is still over a week away. Nonetheless, what it depicts could be the very worst case scenario, first hitting the S. Fl. coast and then raking the entire east CONUS. Who knows how strong she might be at that point! A storm that I have barely noticed will certainly have my full attention until the fat lady sings.

Lynn

Oh, btw, GO GATORS!
Last edited by HurricaneQueen on Sat Sep 16, 2006 8:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#414 Postby wxman57 » Sat Sep 16, 2006 8:47 pm

Pebbles wrote:Anyone tell me when 00Z Gfdl and ukmet are usually out. Would like to catch them before hitting the sack early tonight and usually don't anticipate the exact time they come out so don't know it. Thanks in advance!


You better go to bed. 00Z GFDL comes out about 12:30am CDT. 00Z UKMET won't be hour for quite a while, either. Helene will still be there when you wake up. ;-)
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#415 Postby Pebbles » Sat Sep 16, 2006 8:50 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Pebbles wrote:Anyone tell me when 00Z Gfdl and ukmet are usually out. Would like to catch them before hitting the sack early tonight and usually don't anticipate the exact time they come out so don't know it. Thanks in advance!


You better go to bed. 00Z GFDL comes out about 12:30am CDT. 00Z UKMET won't be hour for quite a while, either. Helene will still be there when you wake up. ;-)


LOL figures. She will be! Thanks. My brain is too toasted to wait that long and further posts will just be gibberish. Enjoy the night watch all!
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#416 Postby NESDIS Met » Sat Sep 16, 2006 8:50 pm

ameriwx2003 wrote:wxman57... maybe you can answer this.. Its my understanding that they ran a special SAl investigation missons today and one result of that is for the 18Z model runs the extra data was ingested into the model run.. So maybe the GFS isn't so out to lunch?? Also, the trend of more ridging in the West Atlantic in the longer range would teleconnect with whats happening in the Western Pacific would it not??? whats your thoughts???


Yes, Ameriwx, you are correct. We had good ingest of data from these flights for the 18z gfs. And no, they are not out to lunch, the +PNO is exerting its influence on W Atlantic mass fileds and you'll see that the 00z suite comes right in line. In short, a major east coast hit is now on the table (by that I mean 50% or thereabouts).

Interesting season, some of the most trusted algorithms have failed to deliver.
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#417 Postby Emmett_Brown » Sat Sep 16, 2006 8:52 pm

sma10 wrote:Ok...

The 18Z GFS is SICK!

If it were to verify, it would mean a hurricane would be right off the S.Florida coast after crossing 20N as far east as 45W. That would be extraordinary and as far as I know, unprecedented. Someone direct me to an analogue, please.

I can't possibly believe this track is correct, but my interest is suddenly piqued.

Also, as a side note......the Euro's 168 hr position is now 30N 60W. Last night, its 168hr position was 40N 52W.....quite a shift.


Well, this isnt a great analog, but it was the closest that i could find. Hurricane Kyle in 2002 had a crazy path that tracked essentially West in loops and fits at a high latitude, all the way to the east coast:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
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#418 Postby sma10 » Sat Sep 16, 2006 8:53 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:GFS got Ernesto right for all of the wrong reasons. it should not get any credit for being so out to lunch that it got lucky. I did that a few years ago on a dynamics question during my undergrad... prof took off more than half of the points on that question.

Getting something right for the wrong reasons is the same as totally blowing it


Yeah, I know, Derek. The LBAR is even right, sometimes. ;-)

Here are the 00Z model plots, minus BAMs, LBAR, and extrapolated. AVNI is the outlier. It's a projection using what it thinks will be the 00Z GFS run.

Image


Which models are these exactly, wxman57? I'm just curious because there are a lot of models labeled 00Z 17Sep and it's awfully early in the evening.
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#419 Postby Noah » Sat Sep 16, 2006 8:54 pm

Have not been on here in a few days. AM I seeing a concern for Helene effecting the florida coast?

People are talking about her moving more west..

Where would the concern be for in the US?

Thanks all
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#420 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sat Sep 16, 2006 8:55 pm

when do the 00Z models come out?
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