ameriwx2003 wrote:wxman57... maybe you can answer this.. Its my understanding that they ran a special SAl investigation missons today and one result of that is for the 18Z model runs the extra data was ingested into the model run.. So maybe the GFS isn't so out to lunch?? Also, the trend of more ridging in the West Atlantic in the longer range would teleconnect with whats happening in the Western Pacific would it not??? whats your thoughts???
Yes, Ameriwx, you are correct. We had good ingest of data from these flights for the 18z gfs. And no, they are not out to lunch, the +PNO is exerting its influence on W Atlantic mass fileds and you'll see that the 00z suite comes right in line. In short, a major east coast hit is now on the table (by that I mean 50% or thereabouts).
Interesting season, some of the most trusted algorithms have failed to deliver.