Hurricane Helene,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

WeatherTracker · #1 Postby **WeatherTracker** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 10:17 pm

pick up here....

Thread #1

#2 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 10:20 pm

Well, we've dodged the bullet so far this year, this may be the one that gets through.
The GFS has been trending this way for several runs now and as the discussion indicates the ULL is not digging SE.

Thunder44 · #3 Postby **Thunder44** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 10:20 pm

You all can see a loop of that ULL moving off the east coast that was mention in TPC discussion here:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huecwv.html

WeatherTracker · #4 Postby **WeatherTracker** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 10:21 pm

i cant wait until the 00z GFS comes in... shouldnt it have the plane mission data that noaa got?

#5 Postby **brunota2003** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 10:22 pm

things that make you go "hmmm"...well, I aint staying up for the next model run...its late...got a party tomorrow to get ready for...so I shall check out the model plots tomorrow...

#6 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 10:22 pm

so far the gfs only has a 52 mile error average and that scares me!

WeatherTracker · #7 Postby **WeatherTracker** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 10:23 pm

when does the 00z GFS start to run?

pgoss11 · #8 Postby **pgoss11** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 10:23 pm

I know it appears the ULL is not digging southeast, but won't the next trough coming the middle of next week veer Helene out to sea?

mountainspring · #9 Postby **mountainspring** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 10:23 pm

So GFS has Helene crashing through the Bahamas and into Florida, then bouncing off Florida and skirting up the East Coast?!?

I'm having trouble with my Java so I can't see most of the loops out there ... could someone verify that this is what the GFS is currently showing?

#10 Postby **brunota2003** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 10:24 pm

GFS shows Helene scaring Florida (not hitting it) and then coming up through OBX/NC/VA

pgoss11 · #11 Postby **pgoss11** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 10:25 pm

In a word... yes

#12 Postby **brunota2003** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 10:26 pm

if you look in this thread, you can see where the GFS is taking it: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=89843
NOTE: Time Sensative...

WeatherTracker · #13 Postby **WeatherTracker** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 10:27 pm

Time to go to bed.... I think helene should be 90mph by 5am....have a nice evening to all.

#14 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 10:29 pm

00z NAM Loop

#15 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 10:33 pm

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_l.shtml

00z GFS is starting to roll.

#16 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 10:34 pm

Westerly trend showing up here:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/rb-l.jpg

#17 Postby **Pebbles** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 10:34 pm

The one thing that irks me about the GFS... it's chugging along going west and then that it turns it north almost on a dime type of fast. Not saying that it's wrong (or right ... waiting for more model runs cause my brain won't let me get that much needed sleep untill my curiosity is appeased).

What worries me most is if that track did verify it looks like it is coming ugly close to taking a gulf stream express to NC. I was enjoying tracking fishies... this one needs to stay a fish too!

On a side note... boy peeps came crawling outta the woodwork with that GFS run! Must be more lurkers out there then most will admit to *snickers*

Sanibel · #18 Postby **Sanibel** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 10:35 pm

Shouldn't come anywhere near Florida.

Steve H. · #19 Postby **Steve H.** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 10:38 pm

Saw the 0Z NOGAPS and it remains unchanged from the previous run...that was on the mywxmap FNMOC site. Awaiting the GFS!

#20 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 10:43 pm

00z GFS at 24 Hours

Hurricane Helene,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

Hurricane Helene,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

Who is online