SE Texas weather thread - Strong storms Sun/Mon

#141 Postby **Portastorm** » Sun Sep 24, 2006 8:56 am

Yankeegirl wrote:Ok, so now where is the cold shot????

Relax, it's coming ... we're down to 66 degrees here in north Austin with a nice northerly breeze blowing. Definitely feels like fall this morning!

:woo:

Extremeweatherguy · #142 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sun Sep 24, 2006 9:27 am

Highs today in Houston will probably struggle to break 80F, and lows tonight look to be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Tomorrow will also be nice with low humidity and highs in the lower 80s and lows tomorrow night in the middle to upper 50s. Don't worry yankeegirl..the cool shot is coming/is here. You'll feel a difference this evening for sure.

Extremeweatherguy · #143 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sun Sep 24, 2006 5:16 pm

Today has been the nicest day so far this fall!

Highs in the upper 70s, a breezy north wind, and lowering dew points have made it feel EXCELLENT! It has also been quite fall/winter-like in that we hit our highs around noon-3pm and have been dropping ever since.

Here are the area highs so far today, and the time they were reached:

IAH = 82F (1-2pm)
Hooks (Tomball) = 79F (1pm)
Hobby = 83F (3pm)
Galveston = 82F (4pm)
Conroe = 77F (2pm)

And here are the current 5pm temps:

IAH = 76F
Hooks (Tomball) = 75F
Hobby = 79F
Galveston = 81F
Conroe = 75F

Another nice one is in store for tomorrow too with highs in the 80-85F range areawide with low dewpoints.

BTW: we didn't have a day this nice last year until October 7th.

Extremeweatherguy · #144 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sun Sep 24, 2006 5:21 pm

18Z GFS still shows next CF arriving Thursday night:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _108.shtml

It looks pretty strong too! I wouldn't be surprised to see the NWS forecasted temps. be dropped a bit in the coming days for the Thurs. - Sun. time period.

#145 Postby **Portastorm** » Sun Sep 24, 2006 5:33 pm

It would appear the NWS folks in Austin/San Antonio would concur with you, EWG. Here's an excerpt from their afternoon forecast discussion:

DEVIATIONS FROM GUIDANCE ON TEMPS AND POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WERE MINIMAL, BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE A POTENTIAL FOR COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST TEMPS BEHIND THE THURSDAY FRONT.WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE JUST WEST OF THE STRONG POLAR TRANSPORT OVER THE CENTRAL US WHEN THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, AM NOT COMFORTABLE ALTERING TEMPS TOO MUCH COOLER THAN GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.

#146 Postby **jasons2k** » Sun Sep 24, 2006 7:05 pm

I ended up with 1.90" from last night - not bad :-)

Extremeweatherguy · #147 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sun Sep 24, 2006 7:46 pm

It is currently 68F on my outdoor thermometer. Considering we have about 12 hrs. of darkness ahead...I wouldn't be surprised to wake up to 50s tomorrow morning.

Yankeegirl · #148 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Sun Sep 24, 2006 9:30 pm

I am at 70 right now, with a nice breeze and clear skies...

Extremeweatherguy · #149 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 7:11 am

I reached 60F this morning.

#150 Postby **Portastorm** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 7:56 am

Got down to 59 degrees this morning in scenic north Austin!

Johnny · #151 Postby **Johnny** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 11:01 am

57 here at my house this morning. We should get a litlte cooler tonight with clear skies and no wind.

Garnetcat5 · #152 Postby **Garnetcat5** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 1:00 pm

brrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

Extremeweatherguy · #153 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 2:47 pm

NWS is not forecasting 56F for my area tonight! Considering they were 2F too warm in their forecast last night..I would not be surprised to wake up to lower 50s here tomorrow!

Extremeweatherguy · #154 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 9:23 pm

The following is not an official forecast and should not be used as such.

Here is my synopsis of the next 2+ weeks of Houston weather based on forecasts and the latest models:

Short term (tonight through the weekend): Tonight will be one of the coldest so far this fall. Expect lows to fall into the lower 50s in areas such as Conroe and Huntsville, into the middle 50s in all other areas north of I-10, and into the upper 50s to lower 60s (with mid 60s at the coast) south of I-10.

This chilly night will then be followed by another gorgeous day tomorrow with highs only in the lower to middle 80s under sunny skies, and tomorrow night should feature lows only about 1-5F warmer than what we reach tonight (meaning they will still be on the cool side).

Things warm up slightly on Wednesday as the winds veer SE and some gulf moisture is drawn into the area. Highs on Wednesday will likely reach the middle to upper 80s with lows in the middle 60s north of I-10 and upper 60s to near 70F south of I-10 on Wednesday night (about normal for this time of year). This slight warm up will be erased on Thursday however as a cold front brings a reinforcing shot of cool, dry air into the area. Highs on Thursday will be in the lower 80s with an overnight low in the upper 50s north of I-10 and lower 60s to the south. Highs on Friday will then struggle to hit 80F with partly sunny skies and northerly breeze. The nice weather should stick around through the weekend as another reinforcing front works it's way through on Saturday.

Each of these fronts should only be capable of a 10-30% rain chance.

Long range (Next week and beyond)**: Latest modeling shows that next week could get "warm" compared to what we have seen recently. A southerly breeze should allow for near or above normal temperatures with highs in the upper 80s to near 90F and lows in the upper 60s to near 70F. There also seems to be an increase in humidity and a 10-30% Gulf induced rain chance each day.

Things look to change the weekend of the 7th though. Modeling is showing a strong canadian front sweeping through the plains and reaching our area by Sunday, October 8th. With enough moisture out ahead of it, we will likely see a 50%+ rain chance as well as severe weather as the front approaches.

Behind the front, some of the coolest weather all year looks like it would be in store (if the models are correct). Latest modeling shows a north breeze straight from Canada and with it being October, highs as low as the 60s and lows in the 40s would be very possible if this comes to pass.

The models then continue this cooler look through the end of the period (which is October 11th on the GFS). All in all though, it looks like we are set up for a very nice 2 weeks ahead with no extreme heat anywhere in the forecast.

**keep in mind that models and forecasts do change. All items in the "long range" section are subject to major edit with each new model trend and NWS forecast. That section should be used solely to get an "idea" of the general trend being described by long range models and ideas, and not be used for specific planning purposes.**

Extremeweatherguy · #155 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 9:59 pm

Hooks airport is already down to 63F! If they can get below 61F by midnight, then we will be cooler than this mornings low. IAH is also down to 67F already too.

Yankeegirl · #156 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 10:00 pm

Its sitting at 70.3 here in Katy.... Still beautiful out though!!

Extremeweatherguy · #157 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 11:10 pm

11pm temps:

Hooks (Tomball) = 61F

IAH = 65F

Hobby = 67F

Extremeweatherguy · #158 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Sep 26, 2006 6:05 am

6am temps:

Hooks (Tomball) = 57F

IAH = 59F

Hobby = 60F

Conroe = 52F

Extremeweatherguy · #159 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Sep 26, 2006 7:07 am

My thermometer at 7:07am = 54.9F and I can see my breath!

#160 Postby **vbhoutex** » Tue Sep 26, 2006 8:04 am

Managed 59º at my house in Spring Branch-REFRESHING!!!

SE Texas weather thread - Strong storms Sun/Mon

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