Invest 97L North of V.I,Puerto Rico,Models,Sats and Comments

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
N2FSU
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1065
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: Tallahassee, FL

#141 Postby N2FSU » Thu Sep 28, 2006 9:57 pm

yawn... I don't see a Florida hurricane hit this year... the whole Gulf Coast deserves a break
0 likes   
Top
HurricaneHunter914
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4439
Age: 31
Joined: Fri Mar 10, 2006 7:36 pm
Location: College Station, TX

#142 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Fri Sep 29, 2006 12:18 am

I'm happy that Florida hasn't been hit so hard, the theme parks around here don't need to get hammered, especially cypress gardens.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
knotimpaired
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 495
Joined: Fri May 20, 2005 4:14 am
Location: Vieques, PR
Contact:
Contact knotimpaired

#143 Postby knotimpaired » Fri Sep 29, 2006 5:15 am

We are just now getting the thunder, etc associated with this wave. It has been raining on and off for about an hour but nothing major yet.

If you are interested in the area of Vieques/Culebra/US Virgin Islands you can go to our personal weather station online at http://www.playacofi.com/weather
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
caribepr
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1794
Joined: Fri Sep 05, 2003 10:43 pm
Location: Culebra, PR 18.33 65.33

#144 Postby caribepr » Fri Sep 29, 2006 5:39 am

No rain here yet but some great thunder rumbles!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
knotimpaired
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 495
Joined: Fri May 20, 2005 4:14 am
Location: Vieques, PR
Contact:
Contact knotimpaired

#145 Postby knotimpaired » Fri Sep 29, 2006 5:51 am

Good morning,

We have had .71" in the last 40 minutes or so and it is still raining.

The plants love it!!!!!

K
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
caribepr
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1794
Joined: Fri Sep 05, 2003 10:43 pm
Location: Culebra, PR 18.33 65.33

#146 Postby caribepr » Fri Sep 29, 2006 5:53 am

knotimpaired wrote:Good morning,

We have had .71" in the last 40 minutes or so and it is still raining.

The plants love it!!!!!

K


I'm jealous! The sound of thunder is now FARTHER away. According to the radar, the rain, as is often the case, slipped right around us, but there is still hope from that big blob coming along!
(And a plane just took off...not a good sign for heavy rain between here and PR in the next half hour or so :()
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 146119
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#147 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 29, 2006 7:03 am

:bday: Is out in San Juan this morning.But I know that with the orographic effects of Puerto Rico,as the wave moves thru,the precipitation will increase especially this afternoon.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
caribepr
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1794
Joined: Fri Sep 05, 2003 10:43 pm
Location: Culebra, PR 18.33 65.33

#148 Postby caribepr » Fri Sep 29, 2006 7:05 am

Well, I've watered the plants and I'm heading to town to open the cart.. that means it SHOULD rain! and if it rains, there's always Dinghy Dock! ;)
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
msbee
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3037
Joined: Wed Jun 11, 2003 10:11 am
Location: St. Maarten

#149 Postby msbee » Fri Sep 29, 2006 7:52 am

It's a beautiful day here.
We had some thunder and lightning last night but just as I forecast, not a drop of rain.
0 likes   
Too many hurricanes to remember
Top
User avatar
Evil Jeremy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5463
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
Location: Los Angeles, CA

#150 Postby Evil Jeremy » Fri Sep 29, 2006 8:14 am

any models still forecast any devlopment?
0 likes   
Frances 04 / Jeanne 04 / Katrina 05 / Wilma 05 / Fay 08 / Debby 12 / Andrea 13 / Colin 16 / Hermine 16 / Matthew 16 / Irma 17
Top
User avatar
marcane_1973
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 330
Age: 51
Joined: Mon Jun 26, 2006 11:01 pm
Location: N.C.
Contact:
Contact marcane_1973

#151 Postby marcane_1973 » Fri Sep 29, 2006 8:18 am

Evil Jeremy wrote:any models still forecast any devlopment?
Nope the NHC calls for dissipation.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 146119
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#152 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 29, 2006 9:46 am

Image

Image

Floater is over limping 97L.No west winds reported so far here in San Juan nor in the Virgin Islands http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/pr/hourly.html

.As a matter of fact,it's a beautiful day here with fresh breeze and some high clouds .
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
hcane27
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 231
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2006 7:33 pm

Models for 97L

#153 Postby hcane27 » Fri Sep 29, 2006 9:56 am

Evil Jeremy wrote:any models still forecast any devlopment?


DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972006) ON 20060929 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060929 1200 060930 0000 060930 1200 061001 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.2N 63.7W 20.3N 65.5W 21.2N 67.1W 22.0N 68.6W
BAMM 19.2N 63.7W 20.2N 65.7W 21.0N 67.6W 22.0N 69.6W
A98E 19.2N 63.7W 20.0N 65.2W 21.0N 66.7W 22.6N 68.2W
LBAR 19.2N 63.7W 20.5N 65.1W 21.5N 66.3W 22.8N 67.0W
SHIP 20KTS 23KTS 27KTS 32KTS
DSHP 20KTS 23KTS 27KTS 32KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
061001 1200 061002 1200 061003 1200 061004 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.8N 69.9W 24.9N 71.9W 26.2N 73.0W 27.9N 73.0W
BAMM 23.1N 71.5W 24.7N 74.0W 25.2N 76.6W 25.1N 79.3W
A98E 24.6N 69.5W 28.1N 70.0W 30.5N 67.7W 32.8N 60.1W
LBAR 24.3N 68.4W 26.6N 69.3W 28.6N 68.6W 30.0N 67.6W
SHIP 39KTS 48KTS 51KTS 50KTS
DSHP 39KTS 48KTS 51KTS 50KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.2N LONCUR = 63.7W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 18.6N LONM12 = 62.3W DIRM12 = 294DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 17.9N LONM24 = 60.4W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 75NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Evil Jeremy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5463
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
Location: Los Angeles, CA

#154 Postby Evil Jeremy » Fri Sep 29, 2006 9:59 am

i really cant read those model plots in numbers. do they day yes or no?
0 likes   
Frances 04 / Jeanne 04 / Katrina 05 / Wilma 05 / Fay 08 / Debby 12 / Andrea 13 / Colin 16 / Hermine 16 / Matthew 16 / Irma 17
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 146119
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#155 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 29, 2006 10:14 am

524
ABNT20 KNHC 291506
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT FRI SEP 29 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ISAAC...LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT
10 MPH JUST NORTHEAST OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. SHOWER ACTIVITY
REMAINS MINIMAL AND DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART

I dont know why they are still running the models for this little system.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
Evil Jeremy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5463
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
Location: Los Angeles, CA

#156 Postby Evil Jeremy » Fri Sep 29, 2006 6:14 pm

Atlantic Floater2 is now on it, but there calling it "Invest 92L"!!! why?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml
0 likes   
Frances 04 / Jeanne 04 / Katrina 05 / Wilma 05 / Fay 08 / Debby 12 / Andrea 13 / Colin 16 / Hermine 16 / Matthew 16 / Irma 17
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 146119
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#157 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 29, 2006 6:22 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:Atlantic Floater2 is now on it, but there calling it "Invest 92L"!!! why?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml


It's an error,but anyway the invest will be dropped later tonight or tommorow morning as there is nothing left of that system for the models to run.

By thw way not a drop in San Juan today.Warm sunny skie prevailed.So msbee you nailed the not a drop thing. :)
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
caribepr
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1794
Joined: Fri Sep 05, 2003 10:43 pm
Location: Culebra, PR 18.33 65.33

#158 Postby caribepr » Fri Sep 29, 2006 9:39 pm

We watched the one huge grey cloud all day as it s l o w l y passed over us with not a drop of rain. Strange day, the island ready, just extremely hot instead. glad I watered the gardens!
0 likes   
Top
CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34088
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#159 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 29, 2006 10:01 pm

Looks dead to me.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
brunota2003
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9476
Age: 34
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2005 9:56 pm
Location: Stanton, KY...formerly Havelock, NC
Contact:
Contact brunota2003

#160 Postby brunota2003 » Fri Sep 29, 2006 10:17 pm

what is there to dissipate? dont you have to have something there in order to have dissipation? :lol:
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Brent, gib and 49 guests