Western Caribbean Development?
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Western Caribbean Development?
Ok, I know its only one run and its 2 weeks away, but the GFS is forecasting 1004 mb low in the western caribbean. Will have to see if it continues or disappears in subsequent runs.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_360s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_360s.gif
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- SouthFloridawx
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Opal storm wrote:2 weeks away?Not gonna happen.
Keep saying that, based on the GFS it would be right into Florida with the deep trough to the north - a VERY typical mid-October scenario for Florida.
I will agree with you that I am not that convinced because it is 384 hours out. Unless we see many subsequent model runs showing this I am really not worried.
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- gatorcane
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the tropical waves keep marching into the W. Caribbean. Perhaps the GFS thinks that one of these will form a low....?
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc72_latestBW.gif
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc72_latestBW.gif
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It is wholly natural for any development in October to be either the Azores area or Western Caribbean. Does not really take Carnac the Magnificent to predict this!
Whether it happens or not is the obvious question.
I hold just about zero faith in a GFS 384 hour model.
Give me a dollar for every storm predicted in 384 hours this season that did not occur and I would have a nice dinner out.
Maybe even enough to take Gatorcane too to commiserate with the inactivity of the 2006 season!! (actually it might not cover an expensive dinner in Boca...)

Whether it happens or not is the obvious question.
I hold just about zero faith in a GFS 384 hour model.
Give me a dollar for every storm predicted in 384 hours this season that did not occur and I would have a nice dinner out.
Maybe even enough to take Gatorcane too to commiserate with the inactivity of the 2006 season!! (actually it might not cover an expensive dinner in Boca...)


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fci wrote:It is wholly natural for any development in October to be either the Azores area or Western Caribbean. Does not really take Carnac the Magnificent to predict this!
Whether it happens or not is the obvious question.
I hold just about zero faith in a GFS 384 hour model.
Give me a dollar for every storm predicted in 384 hours this season that did not occur and I would have a nice dinner out.
Maybe even enough to take Gatorcane too to commiserate with the inactivity of the 2006 season!! (actually it might not cover an expensive dinner in Boca...)
![]()
Not just a nice dinner out... you'd be a millionaire!
Again... it's not just vertical velocities and vertical instability and October... SHEAR becomes extremely important.
I remember what Dr. Gray said some time ago, "SST's determine when the season starts, shear determines when the season ends."
FWIW, the westerlies are already firmly entrenched in the Tropical Atlantic. http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html
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- cycloneye
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18z GFS at 384 Hours
This run has a low in the SW Caribbean and another NE of the Leewards.But this long range forecast is like Tiger Woods not making the cut in 10 consecutive tournements.
This run has a low in the SW Caribbean and another NE of the Leewards.But this long range forecast is like Tiger Woods not making the cut in 10 consecutive tournements.
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Scorpion wrote:Looking back at many years, it is actually quite rare to have a hurricane hitting SW FL in October, perhaps one out of ten or more. The chances of this happening two years in a row are nil.
Scorpion:
I'm with you that I do not think it will happen.
But, to say "The chances of this happening two years in a row are nil."
is just simply wrong.
I don't think that you could build a true correlation between years to establish a chance of "nil".
Do I think it will happen?--Nope
Can it happen?-- Sure
Therefore chances are greater than "nil".
Just nit-pickin......
Remember, NEVER say NEVER and I think "nil" = never.
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