Western Caribbean Development?

[ronjon]

Ok, I know its only one run and its 2 weeks away, but the GFS is forecasting 1004 mb low in the western caribbean. Will have to see if it continues or disappears in subsequent runs.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_360s.gif

[MiamiensisWx]

End of run initializes a deepening low...

[gatorcane]

and yes could this be, COULD this be the infamous Western Caribbean storm I have been preaching for a couple of months now to form in October?

Lets see if future runs continue to show it.

Minimally it should give this board a bit of a jump start after being so slow for several weeks.

[Rainband]

GFS 2 weeks out. Nuff said.

[SouthFloridawx]

Plus with deep westerly flow in the GOM depicted by GFS I'm not so sure it would be able to make it anyway.

[Opal storm]

2 weeks away?Not gonna happen.

[gatorcane]

2 weeks away?Not gonna happen.

Keep saying that, based on the GFS it would be right into Florida with the deep trough to the north - a VERY typical mid-October scenario for Florida.

I will agree with you that I am not that convinced because it is 384 hours out. Unless we see many subsequent model runs showing this I am really not worried.

[Opal storm]

2 weeks away?Not gonna happen.

Keep saying that, based on the GFS it would be right into Florida with the deep trough to the north - a VERY typical mid-October scenario for Florida.

Im not getting excited over one run forecasting something 2 weeks from now.

[Windsurfer_NYC]

While I wouldn't trust a GFS forecast 384 hours out (especially for tropics), it does line up with the forecasted wet phase of the MJO, due mid-Oct:

[gatorcane]

Windsurfer excellent support. There are some here that have predicted the W. Caribbean to pick-up in about 7-10 days from now....as the wet phase of the MJO enters this region.

[gatorcane]

the tropical waves keep marching into the W. Caribbean. Perhaps the GFS thinks that one of these will form a low....?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc72_latestBW.gif

[fci]

It is wholly natural for any development in October to be either the Azores area or Western Caribbean. Does not really take Carnac the Magnificent to predict this!

Whether it happens or not is the obvious question.

I hold just about zero faith in a GFS 384 hour model.
Give me a dollar for every storm predicted in 384 hours this season that did not occur and I would have a nice dinner out.
Maybe even enough to take Gatorcane too to commiserate with the inactivity of the 2006 season!! (actually it might not cover an expensive dinner in Boca...)

[JonathanBelles]

i hope this plays out as a td or ts into florida

[Scorpion]

Looking back at many years, it is actually quite rare to have a hurricane hitting SW FL in October, perhaps one out of ten or more. The chances of this happening two years in a row are nil.

[beachbum_al]

No, it is not going to happen. It is not going to form. It will not. Why? Because I said so.

For real it is too weeks out. At the beginning of the season I would had looked at it but I don't think anything is going to form and I hope I am right.

[beachbum_al]

That should be two

[weatherwindow]

the 18z run has dropped it....but tis the season for the western caribbean, so who knows.....rich

[wxmann_91]

It is wholly natural for any development in October to be either the Azores area or Western Caribbean. Does not really take Carnac the Magnificent to predict this!

Whether it happens or not is the obvious question.

I hold just about zero faith in a GFS 384 hour model.
Give me a dollar for every storm predicted in 384 hours this season that did not occur and I would have a nice dinner out.
Maybe even enough to take Gatorcane too to commiserate with the inactivity of the 2006 season!! (actually it might not cover an expensive dinner in Boca...)

Not just a nice dinner out... you'd be a millionaire!

Again... it's not just vertical velocities and vertical instability and October... SHEAR becomes extremely important.

I remember what Dr. Gray said some time ago, "SST's determine when the season starts, shear determines when the season ends."

FWIW, the westerlies are already firmly entrenched in the Tropical Atlantic. http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

[cycloneye]

18z GFS at 384 Hours

This run has a low in the SW Caribbean and another NE of the Leewards.But this long range forecast is like Tiger Woods not making the cut in 10 consecutive tournements.

[fci]

Looking back at many years, it is actually quite rare to have a hurricane hitting SW FL in October, perhaps one out of ten or more. The chances of this happening two years in a row are nil.

Scorpion:
I'm with you that I do not think it will happen.
But, to say "The chances of this happening two years in a row are nil."
is just simply wrong.
I don't think that you could build a true correlation between years to establish a chance of "nil".
Do I think it will happen?--Nope
Can it happen?-- Sure
Therefore chances are greater than "nil".
Just nit-pickin......

Remember, NEVER say NEVER and I think "nil" = never.