Bay of Campeche...

#21 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Wed Oct 04, 2006 7:08 pm

THey moved the RAMSDIS floater to the BOC, hmmm..

Ptarmigan · #22 Postby **Ptarmigan** » Wed Oct 04, 2006 7:17 pm

Still worth keeping an eye on it.

Thunder44 · #23 Postby **Thunder44** » Thu Oct 05, 2006 4:53 am

482
ABNT20 KNHC 050907
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT THU OCT 5 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CONTINUES BETWEEN THE EASTERN
BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION... AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.

A SECOND AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS...OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE AND THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. AGAIN...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN
NOT CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Nimbus · #24 Postby **Nimbus** » Thu Oct 05, 2006 7:30 am

It is sure taking its time developing typical of the BOC this time of year. All week the convection has been under light sheer and there has not been any focus of low pressure. Looks like something beginning to converge (possibly with signs of banding) near 95 W but the IR shots can be deceiving.

boca · #25 Postby **boca** » Thu Oct 05, 2006 9:28 am

This year is the complete opposite of last year as far as formation of storm development goes. Last year a depression would develop out of a decaying thunderstorm complex as like this year everything falls apart.

TheRingo · #26 Postby **TheRingo** » Thu Oct 05, 2006 10:13 am

Looks like the shear has relaxed some. 10-20knts over the west part.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.GIF

#27 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Oct 05, 2006 10:20 am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 051514
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT THU OCT 5 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
ALONG A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN
BAHAMAS NORTHEASTWARD TO BERMUDA. WHILE A NON-TROPICAL LOW COULD
FORM WITHIN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A
TROPICAL CYCLONE.

A SECOND AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN

TheRingo · #28 Postby **TheRingo** » Thu Oct 05, 2006 10:22 am

hmm... changed to marginally favorable.

#29 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Oct 05, 2006 10:22 am

yeah but out of the 99% storms that go north, the one that actually has a chance of development West of 60W goes West and hits Mexico :roll:

stormchazer · #30 Postby **stormchazer** » Thu Oct 05, 2006 10:23 am

TheRingo wrote:hmm... changed to marginally favorable.

Also says its drifting west. Looks like the NHC is calling it a Mex. rainmaker.

#31 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Oct 05, 2006 10:25 am

I do see some kind of spin down there - if it could stay over water long enough we could have something.

Stratosphere747 · #32 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Thu Oct 05, 2006 10:31 am

99% of what storms go north?

These little flare-ups in the BOC, quite often move towards Mexico......

#33 Postby **wxman57** » Thu Oct 05, 2006 10:32 am

There appears to be a mid-level rotation near 21.5N/96W. That's about 85 miles east of the coast of Mexico. Movement is to the west at about 5 mph, I'd estimate. So this system will most likely be inland over Mexico before it has a chance to develop.

#34 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Oct 05, 2006 10:47 am

Stratosphere747 wrote:99% of what storms go north?

These little flare-ups in the BOC, quite often move towards Mexico......

its a statement of 2006

#35 Postby **tailgater** » Thu Oct 05, 2006 11:23 am

wxman57 wrote:There appears to be a mid-level rotation near 21.5N/96W. That's about 85 miles east of the coast of Mexico. Movement is to the west at about 5 mph, I'd estimate. So this system will most likely be inland over Mexico before it has a chance to develop.

A little low level vorticity
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8vor4.GIF
West or SW steering
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dlm1.GIF

#36 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Oct 05, 2006 12:17 pm

theres definitely a circulation there.........could it be our next invest?

#37 Postby **OuterBanker** » Thu Oct 05, 2006 12:53 pm

It will be inland before it gets a chance to develop.

#38 Postby **Stormcenter** » Thu Oct 05, 2006 1:31 pm

Yep this baby definitely had some potential if it not were moving westward.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

PTrackerLA · #39 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Thu Oct 05, 2006 2:48 pm

Looks interesting but it will run out of time to develop IMO. Wish we could get some rain from it, it's been very dry lately on top of a very dry year.

Sanibel · #40 Postby **Sanibel** » Thu Oct 05, 2006 3:05 pm

2006 is the year of the satellite illusion. There's definitely something trying to spin up down there but 2006 rips it apart and dries it up before it can every time.

Bay of Campeche...

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