Bay of Campeche...
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
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- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 6358
- Age: 62
- Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 1:01 pm
- Location: Miramar Bch. FL
482
ABNT20 KNHC 050907
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT THU OCT 5 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CONTINUES BETWEEN THE EASTERN
BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION... AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
A SECOND AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS...OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE AND THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. AGAIN...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN
NOT CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
ABNT20 KNHC 050907
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT THU OCT 5 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CONTINUES BETWEEN THE EASTERN
BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION... AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
A SECOND AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS...OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE AND THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. AGAIN...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN
NOT CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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It is sure taking its time developing typical of the BOC this time of year. All week the convection has been under light sheer and there has not been any focus of low pressure. Looks like something beginning to converge (possibly with signs of banding) near 95 W but the IR shots can be deceiving.
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Looks like the shear has relaxed some. 10-20knts over the west part.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.GIF
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.GIF
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- gatorcane
- S2K Supporter
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- Location: Boca Raton, FL
000
ABNT20 KNHC 051514
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT THU OCT 5 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
ALONG A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN
BAHAMAS NORTHEASTWARD TO BERMUDA. WHILE A NON-TROPICAL LOW COULD
FORM WITHIN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A
TROPICAL CYCLONE.
A SECOND AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN
ABNT20 KNHC 051514
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT THU OCT 5 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
ALONG A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN
BAHAMAS NORTHEASTWARD TO BERMUDA. WHILE A NON-TROPICAL LOW COULD
FORM WITHIN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A
TROPICAL CYCLONE.
A SECOND AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN
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- gatorcane
- S2K Supporter
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- Location: Boca Raton, FL
yeah but out of the 99% storms that go north, the one that actually has a chance of development West of 60W goes West and hits Mexico 

Last edited by gatorcane on Thu Oct 05, 2006 10:23 am, edited 1 time in total.
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- stormchazer
- Category 5
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- Joined: Fri Aug 29, 2003 12:00 pm
- Location: Lakeland, Florida
- Contact:
TheRingo wrote:hmm... changed to marginally favorable.
Also says its drifting west. Looks like the NHC is calling it a Mex. rainmaker.
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The posts or stuff said are NOT an official forecast and my opinion alone. Please look to the NHC and NWS for official forecasts and products.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Opinions my own.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Opinions my own.
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- Category 5
- Posts: 3772
- Joined: Thu Sep 11, 2003 8:34 pm
- Location: Surfside Beach/Freeport Tx
- Contact:
wxman57 wrote:There appears to be a mid-level rotation near 21.5N/96W. That's about 85 miles east of the coast of Mexico. Movement is to the west at about 5 mph, I'd estimate. So this system will most likely be inland over Mexico before it has a chance to develop.
A little low level vorticity
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8vor4.GIF
West or SW steering
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dlm1.GIF
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- S2K Supporter
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- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 6685
- Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:27 am
- Location: Houston, TX
Yep this baby definitely had some potential if it not were moving westward.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html
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- PTrackerLA
- Category 5
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