Invest 90L West Atlantic,Sat Pics,Comments and Models

Opal storm · #41 Postby **Opal storm** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 7:57 pm

Considering there's an invest on this now I would've expected this thread to be more active.What a difference a year makes.

#42 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 8:04 pm

I looked at the 500mb vorticy heights for the global models and they all show that there will be a high pressure ridge through 6 days in the NW Carib which should mean that whatever part of 90L will probably stay on a W or WNW course throughout the Carib. Am I looking at this the right way or wrong way? Any help would be much appreciated. Here is a link to the models I looked at:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

Examine the 500mb vorticity heights and loop the animation.

<RICKY>

#43 Postby **Blown Away** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 8:27 pm

Looks NW then WSW, obviously preliminary, but doesn't look like a sudden N turn.
http://weather.net-waves.com/model.php

#44 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 8:30 pm

The GFS closed this off near PR on one of the runs yesterday and then lost it near the SE Bahamas.

Here I went and found it, the 12z run......

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

rockyman · #45 Postby **rockyman** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 8:34 pm

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_90.gif

rockyman · #46 Postby **rockyman** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 8:35 pm

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_90.gif

#47 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 8:36 pm

ummm...invest heading WNW into the Caribbean with a building ridge and then a mega trough coming down late this week.

We should watch this one - could be the October surprise? I think most have checked out of the season...

Time to check by in :eek:

rockyman · #48 Postby **rockyman** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 8:37 pm

8pm TWD:

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 150 TO 200 NM E OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES ALONG 58W S OF 24N. THIS WAVE HAS BEEN WELL-DEFINED
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS IT TRACKS W 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE MOSTLY WITHIN 400 NM TO THE E OF THE WAVE
AXIS. SFC OBSERVATIONS CLEARLY SHOW WINDS VEERING FROM THE SE E
OF THE AXIS TO THE ENE W OF THE AXIS. SOME OF THESE OBS ARE
RECORDING 20 KT WINDS WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE WAVE. FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

THE THIRD AREA OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS JUST TO THE E OF THE
AREA...WITH A FEW SHOWERS BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO THE LESSER
ANTILLES. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL DEFINED
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 58W WITH SOME INSTABILITY ENHANCEMENT FROM
AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG 54W. FOR MORE DETAILS...REFER TO THE
TROPICAL WAVE SECTION. AS THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD...MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE AND SPREAD ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. TRADE WINDS ARE LIGHT TO MODERATE AND WILL
LIKELY REMAIN THAT WAY OVER THE COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO THE WEAK
PRES PATTERN.

#49 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 8:38 pm

two words:

invest 90L

It's entering the Eastern Caribbean :eek:

Now I know why I hate October :eek:

#50 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 8:59 pm

can a moderator change the title? Its now an invest.

#51 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 9:01 pm

Just did it gatorcane.

#52 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 9:02 pm

time for this board to light up - I would say this is the most imminent threat the islands have had all season - although I say this with caution as development is only "slow to occur if any"

#53 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 9:11 pm

90L Plot map:

http://weather.net-waves.com/model.php

#54 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 9:14 pm

000
ABNT20 KNHC 110200
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT TUE OCT 10 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS GENERATING
THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD WESTWARD
THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WHILE
THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING...
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH

#55 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 9:15 pm

Click on show me the NHC models to get the Plot Map:

http://weather.net-waves.com/model.php

#56 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 9:21 pm

I don't have that option. Can you post a graphic?

Thanks - it doesn't look like it will gain much lattitude at all.

#57 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 9:23 pm

Nope, but may track toward the DR, according to the early plot map. Sorry, I don't know how to post graphics, so I just post the links.

#58 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 9:25 pm

Seems to be some expansion going on right now, blowing up a bit:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/avn-l.jpg

rockyman · #59 Postby **rockyman** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 9:25 pm

Link to the graphic:

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_90.gif

#60 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 9:25 pm

From here you can select 90L:

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

Invest 90L West Atlantic,Sat Pics,Comments and Models

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