Invest 90L West Atlantic,Sat Pics,Comments and Models
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I looked at the 500mb vorticy heights for the global models and they all show that there will be a high pressure ridge through 6 days in the NW Carib which should mean that whatever part of 90L will probably stay on a W or WNW course throughout the Carib. Am I looking at this the right way or wrong way? Any help would be much appreciated. Here is a link to the models I looked at:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
Examine the 500mb vorticity heights and loop the animation.
<RICKY>
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
Examine the 500mb vorticity heights and loop the animation.
<RICKY>
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- Blown Away
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Looks NW then WSW, obviously preliminary, but doesn't look like a sudden N turn.
http://weather.net-waves.com/model.php
http://weather.net-waves.com/model.php
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The GFS closed this off near PR on one of the runs yesterday and then lost it near the SE Bahamas.
Here I went and found it, the 12z run......
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation
Here I went and found it, the 12z run......
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation
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8pm TWD:
A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 150 TO 200 NM E OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES ALONG 58W S OF 24N. THIS WAVE HAS BEEN WELL-DEFINED
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS IT TRACKS W 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE MOSTLY WITHIN 400 NM TO THE E OF THE WAVE
AXIS. SFC OBSERVATIONS CLEARLY SHOW WINDS VEERING FROM THE SE E
OF THE AXIS TO THE ENE W OF THE AXIS. SOME OF THESE OBS ARE
RECORDING 20 KT WINDS WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE WAVE. FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.
THE THIRD AREA OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS JUST TO THE E OF THE
AREA...WITH A FEW SHOWERS BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO THE LESSER
ANTILLES. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL DEFINED
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 58W WITH SOME INSTABILITY ENHANCEMENT FROM
AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG 54W. FOR MORE DETAILS...REFER TO THE
TROPICAL WAVE SECTION. AS THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD...MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE AND SPREAD ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. TRADE WINDS ARE LIGHT TO MODERATE AND WILL
LIKELY REMAIN THAT WAY OVER THE COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO THE WEAK
PRES PATTERN.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 150 TO 200 NM E OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES ALONG 58W S OF 24N. THIS WAVE HAS BEEN WELL-DEFINED
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS IT TRACKS W 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE MOSTLY WITHIN 400 NM TO THE E OF THE WAVE
AXIS. SFC OBSERVATIONS CLEARLY SHOW WINDS VEERING FROM THE SE E
OF THE AXIS TO THE ENE W OF THE AXIS. SOME OF THESE OBS ARE
RECORDING 20 KT WINDS WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE WAVE. FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.
THE THIRD AREA OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS JUST TO THE E OF THE
AREA...WITH A FEW SHOWERS BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO THE LESSER
ANTILLES. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL DEFINED
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 58W WITH SOME INSTABILITY ENHANCEMENT FROM
AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG 54W. FOR MORE DETAILS...REFER TO THE
TROPICAL WAVE SECTION. AS THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD...MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE AND SPREAD ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. TRADE WINDS ARE LIGHT TO MODERATE AND WILL
LIKELY REMAIN THAT WAY OVER THE COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO THE WEAK
PRES PATTERN.
Last edited by rockyman on Tue Oct 10, 2006 8:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- dixiebreeze
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- dixiebreeze
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- Evil Jeremy
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000
ABNT20 KNHC 110200
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT TUE OCT 10 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS GENERATING
THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD WESTWARD
THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WHILE
THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING...
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH
ABNT20 KNHC 110200
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT TUE OCT 10 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS GENERATING
THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD WESTWARD
THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WHILE
THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING...
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH
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Frances 04 / Jeanne 04 / Katrina 05 / Wilma 05 / Fay 08 / Debby 12 / Andrea 13 / Colin 16 / Hermine 16 / Matthew 16 / Irma 17
- dixiebreeze
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- dixiebreeze
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5140
- Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 5:07 pm
- Location: crystal river, fla.
- dixiebreeze
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5140
- Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 5:07 pm
- Location: crystal river, fla.
Seems to be some expansion going on right now, blowing up a bit:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/avn-l.jpg
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/avn-l.jpg
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