SE TX weather thread #4 - Severe weather Fri/Sat

double D · #81 Postby **double D** » Mon Nov 20, 2006 12:52 pm

Portastorm wrote:Yes, I seem to recall it being quite chilly for 2 weeks up to about Dec. 20th or so ... then it got (and stayed) warmer than normal.

Winter = cancel.

Tell me about it. I had blooms on some of my trees and annuals before March 1! I can't recall seeing blooms so early in the season before. :roll:

Johnny · #82 Postby **Johnny** » Mon Nov 20, 2006 1:22 pm

Last winter was fairly warm. We had that quick cold spell in early December and then that shallow but very cold arctic front come through this past February. I don't think it got out of the 30's for 3 days. I was vacationing in Wimberley at the time and we steadily hovered around 34 degrees during the day and it would drop to 29 to 31 at night. It was cloudy the entire time period. Those were really the only two cold outbreaks last winter. I believe January was one of the warmest on record.

I think someone here pointed this out before but I see somewhat of a pattern. We get a cold front in and then it warms up. Then we get another cold front in that is a little cooler than the last one and then it warms up again AND then we get another cold front in which is again colder than the last one......then another warm up. Tonight will be the coldest night of the fall season and then we start to warm up again. After this warm up I bet you that we will get colder than this last surge of cold air. Maybe the models that EWG and Portastorm posted might not be too far off. Hopefully we will get some models to come in line with the GFS before long. :cheesy:

Yankeegirl · #83 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Mon Nov 20, 2006 3:25 pm

My opinion is that if we are already getting a freeze warning tonight, and as you guys pointed out, that it is somewhat early than the average, I think its a sign of things to come for this winter... Maybe another shot at some mixed precip later on in the season, I dint know, but I am not counting it out by far...

Extremeweatherguy · #84 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Nov 20, 2006 3:48 pm

12Z GFS still shows cold for early December:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _240.shtml\
^^Morning of November 30th^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _252.shtml
^^Late evening November 30th^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _264.shtml
^^Morning of December 1st^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _276.shtml
^^Evening of December 1st^^

Though not as cold and winter weather-filled as last night's 0Z run...it still follows the trend of a strong arctic front pushing south in about 10-12 days. If this trend can continue into the day 6-7 range...then we may be in for a real deal push of cold come the first of next month. Lots to watch through the Thanksgiving holiday and beyond. We should have a better idea come this weekend...

Yankeegirl · #85 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Mon Nov 20, 2006 3:48 pm

So why is there a freeze warning when the weather service is only forecasting a low of 38 here? All the local mets are calling for a low between 30-32 tonight for areas outside the beltway,... Why the big difference in temps?

Extremeweatherguy · #86 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Nov 20, 2006 3:53 pm

Yankeegirl wrote:So why is there a freeze warning when the weather service is only forecasting a low of 38 here? All the local mets are calling for a low between 30-32 tonight for areas outside the beltway,... Why the big difference in temps?

the Houston afternoon NWS shift is usually the "warmer" bunch of forecasters that relies more on the GFS model. I wouldn't buy into that 38F much until evening sets in and we see how fast temps. start dropping.

With dewpoints in the lower to middle 20s right now though, I see no reason why (with calm winds) a decent freeze wouldn't happen for areas outside of the beltway and north of I-10. I even managed to reach 35-36F last night...so I think a 30-32F reading will not be hard for many tomorrow morning. We shall see I guess...

BTW: The NWS is still forecasting 33-34F for my location in northern Harris. I wonder why you are forecasted to be so much warmer in your area?

cctxhurricanewatcher · #87 Postby **cctxhurricanewatcher** » Mon Nov 20, 2006 4:00 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:12Z GFS still shows cold for early December:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _240.shtml\
^^Morning of November 30th^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _252.shtml
^^Late evening November 30th^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _264.shtml
^^Morning of December 1st^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _276.shtml
^^Evening of December 1st^^

Though not as cold and winter weather-filled as last night's 0Z run...it still follows the trend of a strong arctic front pushing south in about 10-12 days. If this trend can continue into the day 6-7 range...then we may be in for a real deal push of cold come the first of next month. Lots to watch through the Thanksgiving holiday and beyond. We should have a better idea come this weekend...

Well then. Maybe we'll get the first "Bears Watch" from one of the Texas NWS offices before too ling. :lol:

#88 Postby **CaptinCrunch** » Mon Nov 20, 2006 4:38 pm

NTX still has not recieved the offical freeze warning yet, however as stated in this AFD many have aready had their first freeze of the year. I recieved my first freeze this morning with a low of 32 at the house, and a heavy frost that covered everything.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
319 PM CST MON NOV 20 2006

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTH TEXAS WILL
SLOWLY SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL EXPECT EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO
OCCUR. LIGHT WINDS AND VERY LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT SHOULD RESULT
IN RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPS THIS EVENING...AND THEN A MORE GRADUAL
FALL AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-MID 30S AND SMALLER
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF FROST. SOME
SHELTERED LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE FREEZING TEMPS AGAIN
TONIGHT...WHILE OTHER LOCATIONS A FEW MILES AWAY MAY STILL NOT
RECEIVE THE SEASONS FIRST FREEZE. AFTER SOME OFFICE
DISCUSSION...WE WILL NOT ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING UNTIL WE GET THE
SEASONS FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZE. SO FAR THIS SEASON...SPOTTY
FREEZING TEMPS HAVE OCCURRED ON 7 SEPARATE DAYS AROUND THE CWA.
HOWEVER...NO COUNTY-WIDE FREEZES HAVE YET TO OCCUR...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHERN/NORTHEAST ZONES.

Extremeweatherguy · #89 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Nov 20, 2006 4:55 pm

Freeze Warning

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
342 PM CST MON NOV 20 2006

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

TXZ163-164-176>179-196-198>200-212>214-211400-
/O.CON.KHGX.FZ.W.0001.061121T0600Z-061121T1400Z/
BRAZOS-CHAMBERS-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MONTGOMERY-
POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANAHUAC...BROOKSHIRE...BRYAN...
CLEVELAND...COLDSPRING...COLLEGE STATION...CONROE...CORRIGAN...
CROCKETT...DAYTON...GROVETON...HEMPSTEAD...HOUSTON...HUMBLE...
HUNTSVILLE...KATY...LIBERTY...LIVINGSTON...MADISONVILLE...
MONT BELVIEU...NAVASOTA...ONALASKA...PASADENA...PRAIRIE VIEW...
SHEPHERD...THE WOODLANDS...TOMBALL...TRINITY...WILLIS...WINNIE
342 PM CST MON NOV 20 2006

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM
CST TUESDAY...

TEMPERATURES NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM MADISONVILLE TO THE
WOODLANDS TO LIBERTY ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING BETWEEN 1 AND 4 AM AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH 8 AM.

LOCATIONS SOUTH AND WEST OF THAT LINE...GENERALLY FROM COLLEGE
STATION TO WALLER TO KINGWOOD TO WINNIE...ARE MORE LIKELY TO SEE
TEMPERATURES DIP TO THE FREEZING MARK MAINLY IN RURAL AREAS AND
DISTANT SUBURBS WELL AWAY FROM METRO AREAS. THE CITY OF HOUSTON...
ESPECIALLY WITHIN BELTWAY 8...SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY AND IS ISSUED FOR THE FIRST EXPECTED FREEZE OF THE
WINTER.

My area usually ends up as cold as Conroe and the woodlands...so I guess I should expect upper 20s to lower 30s tomorrow morning. BRRR!!!

PTrackerLA · #90 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Mon Nov 20, 2006 5:43 pm

Freeze warning has been extended to cover Lafayette Parish, forecast low is 32 tonight. Even if we don't make it to 32 there should be a killing frost a little earlier than usual.

Extremeweatherguy · #91 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Nov 20, 2006 6:24 pm

Wow. The temperatures are nosediving right now! I have gone from 59F at 4:30pm to 51-52F right now at 5:25pm.

Extremeweatherguy · #92 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Nov 20, 2006 6:59 pm

now I am down to 47F. Brr..

BTW: IAH is already down to 48F too (as cold as Conroe). It is rare to see those two airports showing the same temps!

#93 Postby **jasons2k** » Mon Nov 20, 2006 7:28 pm

Unless something dramatic happens, I am not expecting a freeze at my house tonight. Here is one major reason:

Current Dewpoint: 37*
Last Hour: 35
1 hour ago: 30
2 hours ago: 27
3 hours ago: 25

Extremeweatherguy · #94 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Nov 20, 2006 7:50 pm

I am now at 43F.

BTW: JB is now mentioning a big ticket arctic outbreak possible late next week (as the GFS and EURO are showing), so it seems like it is becoming more and more likely.

However, he doesn't believe December will be a cold month overall. Instead, he thinks it will average near or slightly above normal across much of the country (except the SE United States), but that there will be brief periods of intense cold. He thinks that January may be the COLDEST month this winter (which would be completely opposite of last year). We shall see I guess...

Extremeweatherguy · #95 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Nov 20, 2006 7:54 pm

jschlitz wrote:Unless something dramatic happens, I am not expecting a freeze at my house tonight. Here is one major reason:

Current Dewpoint: 37*
Last Hour: 35
1 hour ago: 30
2 hours ago: 27
3 hours ago: 25

dewpoints always rise dramatically on radiational cooling nights. Once the temperature starts getting close to them though, they usually drop back off (with the temperature). Last night for instance the dewpoint was near 40F at this point, yet I still managed to hit 35.4F this morning. Also, conroe's dewpoint last night at 7pm was 41F and they managed to reach 34F this morning. The dewpoint early in the evening has very little effect on the eventual low...what matters is the dewpoint once we get closer to sunrise.

Extremeweatherguy · #96 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Nov 20, 2006 8:01 pm

7pm temperatures:

Galveston = 54F
Austin = 54F
Hobby = 53F
College Station = 49F
Beaumont = 49F
IAH = 47F
Tomball = 46F
Huntsville = 44F
My Thermometer = 43F
Conroe = 42F
Lufkin = 38F

Johnny · #97 Postby **Johnny** » Mon Nov 20, 2006 8:33 pm

It's 41 here at my house. I've got a big ol fire going outside which feels good with the cold temps. This kind of cold is bearable because their isn't even a breeze. Throw a 15 mph breeze on top of these temps and then I'll be nice a chilly. :froze:

Yankeegirl · #98 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Mon Nov 20, 2006 9:12 pm

I have 47 here at my house now... and dropping!

Extremeweatherguy · #99 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Nov 20, 2006 9:13 pm

8pm temperatures:

Galveston = 57F
Austin = 52F
Hobby = 49F
IAH = 46F
Beaumont = 46F
College Station = 45F
Hooks = 43F
Huntsville = 42F
Brenham = 41F
My thermometer = 39.7F
Conroe = 38F
Lufkin = 37F

TexasSam · #100 Postby **TexasSam** » Mon Nov 20, 2006 9:16 pm

Does someone have a Tempature + Humidity = Dewpoint table?
I can get Temp. & Humidity here, but wonder if there is a way to find the dewpoint from that?

SE TX weather thread #4 - Severe weather Fri/Sat

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