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this morning there was a "chance of drizzle" and since then it has been upped to a 30% chance of rain. I call that a bust! It has been raining all day here too (and it is much chillier than forecast too).Yankeegirl wrote:Was it supposed to rain today?? Its been raining here all day!!! Not that i am complaining, I love the rain, but a little surprised that it really wasnt mentioned on the news... The Bear Creek Dome has failed!!!![]()
Extremeweatherguy wrote:this morning there was a "chance of drizzle" and since then it has been upped to a 30% chance of rain. I call that a bust! It has been raining all day here too (and it is much chillier than forecast too).Yankeegirl wrote:Was it supposed to rain today?? Its been raining here all day!!! Not that i am complaining, I love the rain, but a little surprised that it really wasnt mentioned on the news... The Bear Creek Dome has failed!!!![]()
are you talking about back when the models showed a 1989 strength high pressure?richtrav wrote:Whoa there! 1989?! We may well not see another freeze that severe in our lifetime (at least I hope not). Something along the lines of a 1982 or 1949 is bound to come along again sooner or later, but '89 was truly exceptional, and even '83 was rare - those were the 2 hardest freezes of the 20th century. Even when conditions seem right for the invasion of severe cold to push through the state most of them tend to peter out considerably before they hit the southland (like Feb 1989 or Dec 1990)
Calling for just some "drizzle" this morning and then it ending up being an all day rain event for most of the area is a bust IMO. It doesn't matter if I forecasted anything at all, since I never said it was a bust compared to my forecast. It is just a bust in general, and I am sure others would agree. In fact, I bet the NWS itself would admit it was a bust, anyone could have made a mistake in the forecast (and I probably would have too...and busted), but to say a "chance of drizzle" is the same as a widespread light to moderate rain event just wouldn't be correct.vbhoutex wrote:Extremeweatherguy wrote:this morning there was a "chance of drizzle" and since then it has been upped to a 30% chance of rain. I call that a bust! It has been raining all day here too (and it is much chillier than forecast too).Yankeegirl wrote:Was it supposed to rain today?? Its been raining here all day!!! Not that i am complaining, I love the rain, but a little surprised that it really wasnt mentioned on the news... The Bear Creek Dome has failed!!!![]()
EWG, why do you always call for a bust from the local NWS offices? I haven't seen verification on any of your forecasts(have you made any?). Frankly, imo, it is getting old. And what defines a bust? 2º? 5º? Weather is a constantly changing phenomenon and I am actually surprised at the fact the most of the time the forecasts are right.
I agree there was a bust on the rain chances, but I don't remember you forecasting anything different.
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING THURSDAY MORNING IN A BAND ALONG
COLD FRONT FROM THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS SWWD INTO SERN
TX...DRIVEN BY DEEP LAYER FORCING AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH
TRANSLATING THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS. 40-50 KT SWLY LLJ WILL SUPPORT
THE NWD TRANSPORT OF AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH
THE LOWER MS VALLEY...THE MID SOUTH INTO THE SRN OH VALLEY.
HOWEVER...BOTH LOW AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
RELATIVELY WEAK AND NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC...EFFECTIVELY LIMITING THE
DEGREE OF AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION.
THE INTENSE DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND
SLAB ASCENT ALONG COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN A
NARROW CONVECTIVE LINE WITHIN MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...WITH
CONVECTION POSSIBLY BEING FUELED LARGELY VIA A MOIST ABSOLUTELY
UNSTABLE LAYER /MAUL/. GIVEN THE STRONG WIND FIELDS AND RESULTANT
45-55 KT STORM MOTIONS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A SERIAL-TYPE WIND
EVENT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. SHOULD A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE LOW DEVELOP /SIMILAR TO THE GFS/...AN INCREASING
THREAT OF SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES WOULD EXIST ALONG AND JUST AHEAD
OF SURFACE LOW TRACK.
Paper: HOUSTON CHRONICLE
Date: THU 06/11/1992
Section: Outdoors
Page: 10
Edition: 2 STAR
Dark day on bay produces tales of terror
By SHANNON TOMPKINS
Staff
SATURDAY, Galveston Bay was producing the kind of fishing some folks would die for. And some almost did.
Guide Mickey Eastman had run the several miles from his home port in Trinity Bay to the Texas City area where he joined other boaters plucking speckled trout from the reefs and spoil banks along the Ship Channel.
Guide Mike Williams was a couple of miles offshore and about midway down Galveston Island. He and his clients were looking for the schools of huge tarpon that had been roaming the beachfront.
The Galveston Jetties were gunwale-to-gunwale with anchored boats, and local marinas were doing a booming business in live shrimp sales and boat launch fees. Trout were biting big-time -- Friday's catches from the rocks were some of the year's best, and it looked like weekend anglers were in for a rare shot at some truly outstanding fishing.
They were in for a rare shot -- just not the one most anticipated.
Everything was wonderful until late morning.
"I looked back to the west and northwest and you could see it coming," Eastman said. "It started out looking like a regular thunderstorm, but it just kept getting darker."
By 11:30 or so, a dark band of clouds stretched over much of the horizon to the west-northwest. The clouds kept getting blacker and closer. When Eastman noticed lightning spitting from the wall of darkness, he'd seen enough. He quit fishing, stowed gear and hauled freight home.
"There wasn't any doubt about what was about to happen," he said. "There was plenty of warning. When the wind layed and the bay slicked off -- the calm before the storm -- it was just a matter of time.
"We made it back before it hit. But I told myself, "Some people are gonna get killed out there.' "
Williams was watching the sky, too. At first, the clouds to the west-northwest looked like typical summer thunderheads -- "the kind of stuff you see every day," he said.
"But then they went to deep blue and then black. I said to my customers, "We're in trouble.' "
Williams began running for cover, but he was a long way from anywhere. The storm hit before he made port.
"When we came around the end of the South Jetty, the wind and the waves and the rain were "incredible!" I'm glad I've got a 25-foot Whaler, because I don't know of any other boat that could have made it," Williams said. A lot of boats didn't.
Saturday's storm hit Galveston Bay around noon. Galveston Coast Guard Base clocked winds of 45 knots (52 mph) -- that's a gale-force storm.
It was instant karma for some of the boaters who let good fishing fog their nautical judgment. At least 15 boats bought the farm on the Galveston Jetties. Some were swamped by storm-spawned waves, then washed onto the rocks where they broke apart.
Others were simply hammered into the granite breakwaters when motors failed or skippers lost control. The effect was the same in either case -- boat occupants were spilled into the churning ocean.
Still other craft made it to ramps only to find wind, waves and the crush of frightened fellow boaters made it impossible to load their rigs. Some skippers looking to escape the storm with their life (if not their boat) simply ran their craft aground on the rocks of the Texas City Dike.
"It was a busy day, from what I understand" said Petty Officer 2nd Class Martin Powers of Coast Guard Group Galveston. "I know search-and-rescue had their hands full."
First reported distress call hit the Coast Guard 10 minutes after noon, and involved a capsized sailboat off Kemah-Seabrook. Then the floodgates opened. Coast Guard vessels, private boats and Coast Guard Auxiliary boats plucked people out of the water for the next seven hours.
Mid-afternoon, a recreational boat pulled abreast of the dock at Bolivar Yacht Basin, and marina operator Tommy Woodyard watched as the crew led four wet, frightened adults onto land. The four had been lifted from the water after their 18-foot, walk-through boat took a wave over the bow, foundered and rolled.
"They were shaking like a leaf," Woodyard said. "I made some coffee and one of the guys couldn't even hold the cup to drink it. They were here until someone came to pick them up about 8. And you know what? They never took their life jackets off the whole time they were here. They were scared to death."
There were other tales of terror. Four life jacket-wearing people floated ashore at Bacliff after their sailboat rolled. Four others swam ashore on East Beach -- their capsized boat washed onto the sand at Apfel Park. Offshore, USCG cutters Kodiak Island and Point Baker along with patrol boats assisted several boat trapped offshore in the gale.
Considering the violence of Saturday's storm, its sudden strike and the fact that it hit on the one day of the week that sees the highest level of boat use, it's truly a miracle that only one life was lost. (The storm was blamed for the drowning death of an 80-year-old man whose 19-foot sailboat is thought to have capsized in the blow.)
It was ugly. It was scary. It was deadly. And it will happen again. Summer is storm season. Thunderstorms pop up almost every day. Some are isolated, affecting only small areas.
Others, like the one that slammed Galveston Bay Saturday afternoon, are wide walls of potential tragedy. That's something every boater should keep in mind, even if the fish are biting like there's no tomorrow. Forget that, and there might not be another tomorrow.
"I run when I see something like we saw Saturday. There's not a fish out there worth dying for," Mickey Eastman said.
vbhoutex wrote:Jen, if you read what I wrote, I even called the rain a bust. I can sure understand your rant too!! Unfortunately none of us, including the NWS can constantly be right, especially about the weather which is always dynamic and changing.
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