SE TX weather thread #4 - Severe weather Fri/Sat

[Yankeegirl]

Was it supposed to rain today?? Its been raining here all day!!! Not that i am complaining, I love the rain, but a little surprised that it really wasnt mentioned on the news... The Bear Creek Dome has failed!!!

[JenBayles]

The BC Dome hasn't failed entirely - I had to go to Garbage Ridge out in Katy for a new Christmas tree, and it poured the entire time. Once I hit Highway 6 and Clay Road, no more rain.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Was it supposed to rain today?? Its been raining here all day!!! Not that i am complaining, I love the rain, but a little surprised that it really wasnt mentioned on the news... The Bear Creek Dome has failed!!!

this morning there was a "chance of drizzle" and since then it has been upped to a 30% chance of rain. I call that a bust! It has been raining all day here too (and it is much chillier than forecast too).

[Extremeweatherguy]

the rain over the next few days will likely be enough to bump Houston out of the dry November category. So far, places in NW Houston have already seen up to a half inch in the last 6 hours and IAH has recieved 0.05". With a 60% chance of continuing showers tonight...everyone will likely have picked up a good 0.1" - 0.5" of additional rainfall by tomorrow morning with a few areas seeing even higher totals.

[JenBayles]

Good ole HGX, right on the ball as usual. After an all day rain even, this just in:

Tonight: Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64. Southeast wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Tuesday: A 30 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a high near 79. South wind between 5 and 15 mph.

[Yankeegirl]

Duh, ya think a good chance of showers? Its still raining out here like it has been all day... wonder what gave them the clue there was a good chance of rain?

[richtrav]

Whoa there! 1989?! We may well not see another freeze that severe in our lifetime (at least I hope not). Something along the lines of a 1982 or 1949 is bound to come along again sooner or later, but '89 was truly exceptional, and even '83 was rare - those were the 2 hardest freezes of the 20th century. Even when conditions seem right for the invasion of severe cold to push through the state most of them tend to peter out considerably before they hit the southland (like Feb 1989 or Dec 1990)

[vbhoutex]

Was it supposed to rain today?? Its been raining here all day!!! Not that i am complaining, I love the rain, but a little surprised that it really wasnt mentioned on the news... The Bear Creek Dome has failed!!!

this morning there was a "chance of drizzle" and since then it has been upped to a 30% chance of rain. I call that a bust! It has been raining all day here too (and it is much chillier than forecast too).

EWG, why do you always call for a bust from the local NWS offices? I haven't seen verification on any of your forecasts(have you made any?). Frankly, imo, it is getting old. And what defines a bust? 2º? 5º? Weather is a constantly changing phenomenon and I am actually surprised at the fact the most of the time the forecasts are right.

I agree there was a bust on the rain chances, but I don't remember you forecasting anything different.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Whoa there! 1989?! We may well not see another freeze that severe in our lifetime (at least I hope not). Something along the lines of a 1982 or 1949 is bound to come along again sooner or later, but '89 was truly exceptional, and even '83 was rare - those were the 2 hardest freezes of the 20th century. Even when conditions seem right for the invasion of severe cold to push through the state most of them tend to peter out considerably before they hit the southland (like Feb 1989 or Dec 1990)

are you talking about back when the models showed a 1989 strength high pressure?

No body ever thought we would see Dec. 1989-like temperatures, but for a period the models were showing a high pressure system that was only slightly weaker than the one during that event. Since then though things have changed a bit. The models still show a strong high and cold air, but not as cold as once shown. You can learn the latest in the Winter weather forum Texas thread.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Was it supposed to rain today?? Its been raining here all day!!! Not that i am complaining, I love the rain, but a little surprised that it really wasnt mentioned on the news... The Bear Creek Dome has failed!!!

this morning there was a "chance of drizzle" and since then it has been upped to a 30% chance of rain. I call that a bust! It has been raining all day here too (and it is much chillier than forecast too).

EWG, why do you always call for a bust from the local NWS offices? I haven't seen verification on any of your forecasts(have you made any?). Frankly, imo, it is getting old. And what defines a bust? 2º? 5º? Weather is a constantly changing phenomenon and I am actually surprised at the fact the most of the time the forecasts are right.

I agree there was a bust on the rain chances, but I don't remember you forecasting anything different.

Calling for just some "drizzle" this morning and then it ending up being an all day rain event for most of the area is a bust IMO. It doesn't matter if I forecasted anything at all, since I never said it was a bust compared to my forecast. It is just a bust in general, and I am sure others would agree. In fact, I bet the NWS itself would admit it was a bust, anyone could have made a mistake in the forecast (and I probably would have too...and busted), but to say a "chance of drizzle" is the same as a widespread light to moderate rain event just wouldn't be correct.

[Extremeweatherguy]

We are officially now under a slight severe weather risk Thursday morning:

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING THURSDAY MORNING IN A BAND ALONG
COLD FRONT FROM THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS SWWD INTO SERN
TX...DRIVEN BY DEEP LAYER FORCING AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH
TRANSLATING THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS. 40-50 KT SWLY LLJ WILL SUPPORT
THE NWD TRANSPORT OF AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH
THE LOWER MS VALLEY...THE MID SOUTH INTO THE SRN OH VALLEY.
HOWEVER...BOTH LOW AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
RELATIVELY WEAK AND NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC...EFFECTIVELY LIMITING THE
DEGREE OF AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION.

THE INTENSE DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND
SLAB ASCENT ALONG COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN A
NARROW CONVECTIVE LINE WITHIN MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...WITH
CONVECTION POSSIBLY BEING FUELED LARGELY VIA A MOIST ABSOLUTELY
UNSTABLE LAYER /MAUL/. GIVEN THE STRONG WIND FIELDS AND RESULTANT
45-55 KT STORM MOTIONS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A SERIAL-TYPE WIND
EVENT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. SHOULD A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE LOW DEVELOP /SIMILAR TO THE GFS/...AN INCREASING
THREAT OF SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES WOULD EXIST ALONG AND JUST AHEAD
OF SURFACE LOW TRACK.

[JenBayles]

Well David, I guess you'll have to include me in that "bust" comment, since I was the OP about the busted rain forecast. I never pretended to be a met of any kind, and don't think I've ever posted a forecast, so should I not comment on what the NWS forecasts and compare it to what actually happens?

Too many times I've noticed our HGX boys do exactly what they've been accused of: play it safe with what the models say, and rarely inject any of their own thinking - well, maybe a tad bit in their pitiful discussions of late, but the public forecast usually reflects only model data. There have been too many times I've been flooded in on days where a major rain event occurred and the forecast never reflected it until maybe 12 hours before, if not AFTER it was already underway.

Going back to an historical event, Labor Day weekend of 1992 (I believe I have the year correct without pulling the article), it was a Saturday and Dave went offshore fishing with his two cousins and a friend. He is religious about checking the weather every hour while out on the water. I was home watching a huge supercell develop around Dallas that began to haul butt straight down to Houston/ Galveston. I could raise not a soul at the NWS, and couldn't raise Dave and his party on the radio. Ultimately, NO marine warning was issued resulting in one drowning death. Dave and his party scaled 50 ft. waves just trying to ride out the storm, and to be perfectly honest, he really didn't think they were going to make it.

At the the Houston boat show that year, we stopped by the NWS booth and asked just what happened that day. They had the grace to be very red-faced about the incident, but made it clear they had no interest in discussing it.

OK, end of rant.

[vbhoutex]

Jen, if you read what I wrote, I even called the rain a bust. I can sure understand your rant too!! Unfortunately none of us, including the NWS can constantly be right, especially about the weather which is always dynamic and changing.

[JenBayles]

Here's Dave's near-death experience in June, 1992 (OK, so it was Memorial Day instead of Labor Day - at least I got the year right!) The story is archived at the link below. I will NEVER forget watching that supercell blow up and head straight for where Dave and our family were fishing so far offshore. I couldn't even get the Marine Operator out of Galveston to raise them and get the warning out that the NWS should have done.

Dave saw that squall coming straight at them, and he had a choice of trying to tie up to a rig and risk getting bashed to pieces, or relying on his boating skills to tackle over 2 hours of 30 foot waves with rogues up to 50 feet, blinding rain, and massive electrical activity that wiped out all his instruments. He decided to ride it out on his own skills. I was frantic back in Houston, and didn't hear from him until 4:00 p.m. He was still shaken up by the time he got home. Gotta give God his due on that trip.

http://www.chron.com/CDA/archives/archi ... 92_1060836

Paper: HOUSTON CHRONICLE
Date: THU 06/11/1992
Section: Outdoors
Page: 10
Edition: 2 STAR
Dark day on bay produces tales of terror

By SHANNON TOMPKINS
Staff

SATURDAY, Galveston Bay was producing the kind of fishing some folks would die for. And some almost did.

Guide Mickey Eastman had run the several miles from his home port in Trinity Bay to the Texas City area where he joined other boaters plucking speckled trout from the reefs and spoil banks along the Ship Channel.
Guide Mike Williams was a couple of miles offshore and about midway down Galveston Island. He and his clients were looking for the schools of huge tarpon that had been roaming the beachfront.

The Galveston Jetties were gunwale-to-gunwale with anchored boats, and local marinas were doing a booming business in live shrimp sales and boat launch fees. Trout were biting big-time -- Friday's catches from the rocks were some of the year's best, and it looked like weekend anglers were in for a rare shot at some truly outstanding fishing.

They were in for a rare shot -- just not the one most anticipated.
Everything was wonderful until late morning.

"I looked back to the west and northwest and you could see it coming," Eastman said. "It started out looking like a regular thunderstorm, but it just kept getting darker."

By 11:30 or so, a dark band of clouds stretched over much of the horizon to the west-northwest. The clouds kept getting blacker and closer. When Eastman noticed lightning spitting from the wall of darkness, he'd seen enough. He quit fishing, stowed gear and hauled freight home.

"There wasn't any doubt about what was about to happen," he said. "There was plenty of warning. When the wind layed and the bay slicked off -- the calm before the storm -- it was just a matter of time.
"We made it back before it hit. But I told myself, "Some people are gonna get killed out there.' "

Williams was watching the sky, too. At first, the clouds to the west-northwest looked like typical summer thunderheads -- "the kind of stuff you see every day," he said.

"But then they went to deep blue and then black. I said to my customers, "We're in trouble.' "

Williams began running for cover, but he was a long way from anywhere. The storm hit before he made port.

"When we came around the end of the South Jetty, the wind and the waves and the rain were "incredible!" I'm glad I've got a 25-foot Whaler, because I don't know of any other boat that could have made it," Williams said. A lot of boats didn't.

Saturday's storm hit Galveston Bay around noon. Galveston Coast Guard Base clocked winds of 45 knots (52 mph) -- that's a gale-force storm.
It was instant karma for some of the boaters who let good fishing fog their nautical judgment. At least 15 boats bought the farm on the Galveston Jetties. Some were swamped by storm-spawned waves, then washed onto the rocks where they broke apart.

Others were simply hammered into the granite breakwaters when motors failed or skippers lost control. The effect was the same in either case -- boat occupants were spilled into the churning ocean.
Still other craft made it to ramps only to find wind, waves and the crush of frightened fellow boaters made it impossible to load their rigs. Some skippers looking to escape the storm with their life (if not their boat) simply ran their craft aground on the rocks of the Texas City Dike.
"It was a busy day, from what I understand" said Petty Officer 2nd Class Martin Powers of Coast Guard Group Galveston. "I know search-and-rescue had their hands full."

First reported distress call hit the Coast Guard 10 minutes after noon, and involved a capsized sailboat off Kemah-Seabrook. Then the floodgates opened. Coast Guard vessels, private boats and Coast Guard Auxiliary boats plucked people out of the water for the next seven hours.
Mid-afternoon, a recreational boat pulled abreast of the dock at Bolivar Yacht Basin, and marina operator Tommy Woodyard watched as the crew led four wet, frightened adults onto land. The four had been lifted from the water after their 18-foot, walk-through boat took a wave over the bow, foundered and rolled.

"They were shaking like a leaf," Woodyard said. "I made some coffee and one of the guys couldn't even hold the cup to drink it. They were here until someone came to pick them up about 8. And you know what? They never took their life jackets off the whole time they were here. They were scared to death."

There were other tales of terror. Four life jacket-wearing people floated ashore at Bacliff after their sailboat rolled. Four others swam ashore on East Beach -- their capsized boat washed onto the sand at Apfel Park. Offshore, USCG cutters Kodiak Island and Point Baker along with patrol boats assisted several boat trapped offshore in the gale.

Considering the violence of Saturday's storm, its sudden strike and the fact that it hit on the one day of the week that sees the highest level of boat use, it's truly a miracle that only one life was lost. (The storm was blamed for the drowning death of an 80-year-old man whose 19-foot sailboat is thought to have capsized in the blow.)

It was ugly. It was scary. It was deadly. And it will happen again. Summer is storm season. Thunderstorms pop up almost every day. Some are isolated, affecting only small areas.

Others, like the one that slammed Galveston Bay Saturday afternoon, are wide walls of potential tragedy. That's something every boater should keep in mind, even if the fish are biting like there's no tomorrow. Forget that, and there might not be another tomorrow.

"I run when I see something like we saw Saturday. There's not a fish out there worth dying for," Mickey Eastman said.

[KatDaddy]

That was a scary day indeed Jen. Believe it or not I was also in the middle of this event. We were in Galveston Bay just outside the Kemah waterfront. One of my friend's family came down from Wisconsin for a burial at sea for their uncle. As soons as his unce's ashes hit the water the gust front hit. From that point on it was a very rough event. I was amazed at how fast the seas increased to 15ft or more. We were a 52ft yatch that had waves crashing over the entire boat while being slammed with 40-50MPH wind gusts. Intense lightening and blinding rain followed the winds. Now I had been watching the weather the previous day as the storm complex developed over N TX. I had some concern it might endanger our event the next moring. The next morning I checked the radar and saw developing storms over E Harris County but that was it. The outflow boundary was moving slowly S with dissaptating thunderstorms. Watching the current pattern I felt we would be ok. By the time we made to the middle of Clear Lake I new I was wrong. I watched the storms backbuild off to the NW and notice towering CU's over Clear Lake. Predicting weather is very difficult especially when it comes to localized events. The storms developed so rapidily I dont think a marine warning would have made much difference. People were focused on great fishing and could have cared less about the weather until it became serious. In addition the rapid development and movement would have given people maybe 5 or 10 minutes. It would have taken much longer to get to a safe place if offshore. I was just glad to be safe and sound on the dock at South Shore Habor in Clear Lake. The storm took all us by surprise.

[Lindaloo]

Jen, if you read what I wrote, I even called the rain a bust. I can sure understand your rant too!! Unfortunately none of us, including the NWS can constantly be right, especially about the weather which is always dynamic and changing.

Well said David.

I would not want their job.

[JenBayles]

"Dynamic and changing" - ain't dat da truth?! I've always been a proponent of peeps looking out the window and making their own judgements weather-wise instead of relying on the NWS, TV stations, radio, etc., for warnings. If it LOOKS bad, it probably IS bad, so prepare accordingly. But you must admit, it IS fun second-guessing any governmental agency.

[JenBayles]

KatDaddy - I'm impressed anyone remembers that day since it was so long ago. things like that tend to stick with those who lived through it. God knows Dave and I (and the 3 other people on board) will never forget it. His cousins were newbies to offshore fishing, so they never really understood they were in danger of their lives during that event - all to the good, since Dave didn't have the additional problem of a boat load of panicked peeps. Our old friend Poz, was an old salt who totally understood the danger and helped keep the cousins down on deck while Dave dealt with the boat.

I will never forget the entirely helpless feelings I had watching the complex dive south towards them, and not being able to raise anyone at the League City office - or Marine Operators either. I was watching the only available radar on the Weather Channel by 8:00 a.m., and that supercell just dove straight for Houston and Galveston Bay. We got hammered in Houston around 10:00 - 10:30 a.m., so experiencing it just reinforced my fear for them.

Because I had watched this supercell develop around Dallas since 6:00 a.m., I really think that had anyone been "on duty" in League City, a marine warning could have been issued in time to get most people off the water, or at least within swimming distance of shore with life jackets. Just a crying shame that storm had to happen on a Saturday when the office wasn't fully staffed.

Anyway, going back on topic, we've spent a whole lot of time on the possible below-freezing temps, I wonder if we'll get caught with our pants down for a severe weather event when the front goes through. As long as I don't have to spend 2 days picking up our neighbors' tree trash, I'm thinking I'll survive it!

[jasons2k]

There may well be some severe weather. Jen you're right - all the focus has been on the cold (you'd think Armageddon was on the way ) and the severe threat has been neglected, but it is real.

[JenBayles]

Yep - radar is starting to really light up this afternoon. Getting windier by the minute here in Houston too. <sigh> Guess I'd better start getting some of my plants in while I'm thinking about it...