Texas Winter Weather Thread #3 - GFS showing cold christmas

[Extremeweatherguy]

15 minutes worth of flurries is good enough for me! lol

I agree. at this point I would just be happy to see some flakes in the air.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Take a look at the radar! I see no way that Houston can miss this sheild of precip...

http://wwwa.accuweather.com/radar-large ... te&large=1

Seems to have an aim toward the ENE or NE...right toward us.

[PTrackerLA]

I highly doubt we'll be seeing any precip close to us tonight but this will mess up our overnight lows. It will be hard to drop into the lower 20's with cloudcover.

[Johnny]

Here's a good shot of it coming out of San Antonio.

http://www.mysanantonio.com/multimedia/ ... ler_lg.gif

[jasons2k]

Take a look at the radar! I see no way that Houston can miss this sheild of precip...

http://wwwa.accuweather.com/radar-large ... te&large=1

Seems to have an aim toward the ENE or NE...right toward us.

There is a way and it's called incredibly dry air.

Yes, it's moving in the right direction, but look at the radar out of San Antonio - hi-res if possible - and watch what happens to the intensity & coverage of the shield as it moves ENE.

Believe me - I'd LOVE for it to make it this time - I just don't see it - yet

[Extremeweatherguy]

Take a look at the radar! I see no way that Houston can miss this sheild of precip...

http://wwwa.accuweather.com/radar-large ... te&large=1

Seems to have an aim toward the ENE or NE...right toward us.

There is a way and it's called incredibly dry air.

Yes, it's moving in the right direction, but look at the radar out of San Antonio - hi-res if possible - and watch what happens to the intensity & coverage of the shield as it moved ENE.

Believe me - I'd LOVE for it to make it this time - I just don't see it - yet

If it moves over us, then the precipitation (as virga) will likely be enough to moisten up our air a bit. If that can occur, I think it is very possible we see something out of this.

Also, it does look like the heavy precip. cores are holding their own as they move NE this afternoon (based on Johnny's radar link):

http://www.mysanantonio.com/multimedia/ ... ler_lg.gif

At this moment I am just trying to have hope it reaches us and brings us a nice surprise!

[Yankeegirl]

Well I just went in the front yard and did the snow dance, so hopefully this will make a difference... lol...

[Yankeegirl]

Its kind of funny to see all the people browsing this forum are generally from Texas.. lol...

[Extremeweatherguy]

pretty cool image from weather.com this afternoon:



It's not often that you see something like this!

[weatherrabbit_tx]

Well I just went in the front yard and did the snow dance, so hopefully this will make a difference... lol...

hope it helps, would of loved to seen it,

[Yankeegirl]

Let me get out my web cam and ill do it again, not!! lol.....

[Johnny]

What does a snow dance consist of yankeegirl. I've never had a chance to do one growing up down here. Share the knowledge....I might do one myself! lol


Ok, I just went out behind my office and did a snow angel on the dusty concrete but now I have road rash. I hope it was worth it!!

[weatherrabbit_tx]

Let me get out my web cam and ill do it again, not!! lol.....

haha! , just throw a bunch of toys down and do a toy angel like the kid in that commerical, about as close to a snow angel, haha! fat chance!!

[jeff]

Air mass is just too dry... I expect little if anything to reach the ground.

Surface obs out west are showing very little reaching the ground and their dewpoints are 10-20 degrees warmer.

[Johnny]

And there ya go! I guess we can all stop this nonsense now. It was a fun hour and half though wasn't it? LOL!!!

[jasons2k]

Also, it does look like the heavy precip. cores are holding their own as they move NE this afternoon (based on Johnny's radar link):

http://www.mysanantonio.com/multimedia/ ... ler_lg.gif

At this moment I am just trying to have hope it reaches us and brings us a nice surprise!

Saw the link. Look at a Level 2 or Level 3 radar - that tells the story - the dry air is eating it away - like I said - it would take a LOT of intense Virga to moisten the column all the way to the surface. Plus the low itself is opening up, not closing off.

Not that it absolutely can't happen, but I wouldn't stay up waiting for anything this time around.

[Extremeweatherguy]

http://www.weather.com/weather/map/7737 ... ated&day=1

Well, regardless of what happens, the above link is still fun to look at. Let's just hope SOMETHING (even a single flurry) can result from this. Though it is unlikely, I will still have hope until the threat is completely over with.

[Yankeegirl]

Still the temps here are holding pretty good, its 48 here right now, and the sun is back out... I also have little hope for any type of wintery mix, but it was fun to look at .... unless the temp nosedives and the moisture flows in at the same time, I think the snow this time is a no go.... Winter just started, we have a few more months to get all hyped up again... and I think there is a definate chance that we are going to see something this winter... just not tonight... or tomorrow...

[Portastorm]

Wow, this looks awfully familar to a certain snow event in 2004. Low 40's during the day like it is right now, with freezing precip of some sort falling to the north and west of Corpus. I rememeber sitting on my computer looking at the radars at this time during the day and seeing the precip in the same areas and monitoring the temps.

And then, wham at night the snow fell. I doubt this event will be similar, but no one in their right minds back then expected that event also.

So I say to my bud Portastorm in Austin. I'll see you a snow ball via FedEx.

Gggrrrrr ....

Once again I get cloudy and cold. CC ... you dirty dawg!

[Extremeweatherguy]

check out the forecast for VICTORIA (whithin the corpus christi NWS area):

This Afternoon: A chance of rain, snow and sleet. Cloudy, with a steady temperature around 43. North wind between 3 and 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Tonight: A chance of rain, snow and sleet. Cloudy, with a low around 34. North northeast wind between 3 and 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Saturday: A chance of rain, snow and sleet before 9am, then a chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 50. East northeast wind between 5 and 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

And then take a look at the zone forecast a few miles away (from the Houston NWS area):

This Afternoon: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 51. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Tonight: A 20 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36. Northeast wind around 5 mph.

Saturday: A 30 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 60. East wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Something doesn't quite add up here. I don't see how it would snow/sleet in Vicotoria (50% chance), and then a few miles away there is just a 20% chance of only rain. Seems like the two NWS offices do not agree on the situation in the same way right now.