Texas winter wx thread#4 - big changes on the way eventually

[Yankeegirl]

Can we lighten up a bit please and enjoy everyone's winter weather prognostications with a grain of salt and laughter?

Is that a real word???

and I also think it was hail that you were hearing...We had some rain and a few rumbles of thunder, but no hail here in under the dome...

[ROCK]

I agree Yankeegirl.....lets all back off the pounding on someone who I feel contributes a lot to our weather forums. Some of his posts provide helpful model runs that I wouldn't otherwise look up. Enthusiasm is not a crime folks....


EWG- Keep hope alive bro....

[double D]

I know this is west Texas, but it looks like someone in the state may receive some heavy snow.

...HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING...
IT APPEARS THAT THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE HEAVY SNOW WOULD BE
MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A SWEETWATER...TO BALLINGER...TO SAN
SABA LINE. THIS WOULD INCLUDE THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR FROM
JUNCTION TO OZONA.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES FRIDAY...AND SHOULD BE LOCATED NEAR THE
BIG BEND REGION SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE
EAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BY SUNDAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
SATURDAY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. THE COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM
MAY ALLOW THE RAIN TO MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO WET SNOW AS
TEMPERATURES FALL SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR RAPIDLY
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM.

THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW COLD THE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE...AND THE EXACT TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW. A FEW DEGREES OF
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE...AND AN ABRUPT CHANGE OF THE STORM TRACK WILL
LIKELY DETERMINE HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL.

RESIDENTS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AND THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS
ACROSS TEXAS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CHECK THE LATEST FORECASTS...
STATEMENTS AND INFORMATION ON THIS DEVELOPING WINTER STORM.

$$

[JenBayles]

And now, back to our regularly scheduled prognostications:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
922 PM CST THU DEC 21 2006

.DISCUSSION...
HOPEFULLY THE LAST UPDATE NEEDED THIS EVENING. ALL THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW OFF TO OUR EAST WITH ONLY VERY ISOLATED AND WEAKENING SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HAVE SENT OUT A NEW FORECAST PACKAGE TO NOW CALL FOR ONLY 20% POPS HOWERS...NO THUNDER) CENTRAL AND SOUTH OVERNIGHT. REST OF THE FORECAST HAS BEEN LEFT ALONE.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 728 PM CST THU DEC 21 2006/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST SUITE UPDATED ONCE AGAIN TO DROP THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
FROM OUR EASTERN COUNTIES AND WATERS DUE TO WEAKENING STORMS. ADJUSTED
TONIGHT`S INLAND POPS DOWNWARD A BIT DUE TO DECREASING COVERAGE. WESTERN
EDGE OF THE CURRENT STORMS IS ABOUT TO CROSS THE I-45 CORRIDOR AND WILL
PROBABLY BE EAST OF THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING FOR ONE MORE FORECAST
UPDATE.

WE DID GET ONE TRAINED SPOTTER SEVERE WEATHER REPORT (NICKEL SIZE HAIL)
IN WESTERN HARRIS COUNTY AT 629 PM (SEE LSRHGX). THAT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
LOOKED MORE IMPRESSIVE AS IT MOVED ACROSS WESTERN FORT BEND COUNTY...BUT
NO SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS WERE RECEIVED.

[JenBayles]

For the declining minds among us:

prog·nos·ti·ca·tion /prɒgˌnɒstɪˈkeɪʃən/ Pronunciation Key - Show Spelled Pronunciation[prog-nos-ti-key-shuhn] Pronunciation Key - Show IPA Pronunciation
–noun 1. the act of prognosticating.
2. a forecast or prediction.

[aggiecutter]

After looking at the 0Z GFS, I am becoming more convinced that extreme NE Texas and adjacent areas of SW Arkansas and SE Oklahoma are going to get a pretty good surprise snow Christmas eve night into Christmas morning. I've seen this GFS look several times before.

[HarlequinBoy]

Interesting aggie..

What are your thoughts on the remainder of Arkansas? That's where I'll be spending Christmas.

[Portastorm]

Well gang, I have been saying that I would get excited (or not excited) about this weekend's potential winter weather when I saw the forecasts and computer modeling Friday morning. Now that I have looked at the 0z and 6z GFS and the Euro and read all the Texas discussions ... I'm here to tell you ... I AM NOT KICKING THAT FOOTBALL, LUCY!!!

Seems like way too many things have to come together to make it snow in the Austin area this weekend. Way too many.

I'll get my cold rain Saturday night and Sunday morning and like it.

Bah humbug!

[wxman22]

From the Houston NWS:
DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF CHALLENGING FORECASTS. YESTERDAY`S SYSTEM
IS EXITING THE REGION AND WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WEST...AM EXPECTING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SEASONABLE TEMPS TODAY. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER IS APPROACHING
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE GOOD PROGRESS TOWARD
NORTHERN MEXICO BY SATURDAY. THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH 36 HOURS AND THEN DIVERGE WITH THE GFS ACCELERATING THE
UPPER LOW ACROSS TEXAS QUICKLY WHILE THE NAM IS CONSIDERABLY
SLOWER. THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST SLOWER MOVEMENT ACROSS
TEXAS. SINCE THE GFS IS THE OUTLIER...OPTED TO BLEND THE OTHER
MODELS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS ANOTHER DEEP LOW SOUTH OF ALASKA AND
THIS SEEMS TO BE KICKING THE OTHER SYSTEM NEAR CALIFORNIA
EASTWARD. SO MAYBE THE GFS IS ON TO SOMETHING WITH THE FASTER
MOVEMENT. 06Z NAM 12 IS A TOUCH FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS NAM
RUN...BUT STILL MUCH SLOWER THAN THE GFS.

THE GFS AND NAM STILL SHOW STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE
REGION SAT NITE AND SUN MORNING. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP SAT
AFTERNOON AND THIS FEATURE WILL EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED SURFACE LOW
OVER THE GULF AND MOVE NORTHEAST SUNDAY MORNING ENDING THE
UPGLIDE AND PRECIP. THE AREA WILL LIE IN A RRQ AND PW`S INCREASE
TO BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.2 INCHES WHICH IS APPROACHING TWICE THE
STANDARD DEVIATION. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME DECENT RAIN
TOTALS OCCURRED. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY
EVENING AND NOT SURE HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS WILL CLEAR. OPTED TO KEEP
THINGS MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP
THINGS ON THE COOL SIDE. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT SO IT`LL
BE BREEZY AS WELL ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.

850 MB TEMPS FALL TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO CELSIUS OVER THE NORTH
BY LATE SUNDAY. THINK MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL HAVE ALREADY ENDED
BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SLEET OR ICE PELLETS MIXING
IN WITH THE PRECIP NORTH OF CALDWELL TO JASPER LINE. PREFER NOT TO
MENTION AT THIS TIME SINCE THE PROBABILITY IS SO SMALL AND THERE
WILL BE SEVERAL MORE MODEL RUNS TO FINE TUNE THIS POTENTIAL.

[aggiecutter]

I am very encouraged by what I see on the 6z NAM for NE Texas and SW Arkansas. Checkout 66-72hrs. I might end up getting a pretty good snow out of this if things come together just right, which apparently they are doing.

6z NAM
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

[gboudx]

aggie, what about the surface temps? The Shreve NWS has you in the 50's on Christmas Day. Doesn't seem like much snow would actually stick around for long.

[aggiecutter]

Evaporational Cooling will keep temps in the 30's. Anyway, the NWS will be out to lunch on this one until it actually starts, which is often the case around here. I'll site some examples. The NWS forcast for Texarkana January 3rd, 1978 was for rain mixed with sleet, changing over to all rain by noon with highs in the upper 40's. By noon, the temp was 28 and we had an inch of ice on the ground. By the next morning, we had 4 inches of sleet on the ground, which is incredible. Another example, the forecast for December 17th, 1983 was for a 20% chance of snow flurries with highs in the mid 40's. By 11:00 oclock, it was 32 and we had 8 inches of snow on the ground. A recent example was December of 2000. The forecast on Friday the 24th was for a slight chance of freezing rain in the morning with temps rising to the low 50's by afternoon. That turned out to be the worst ice storm in the south-central US in over 50 years. This part of the country was declared a Federal Disaster area, and I was without power for 8 days. Forward two more years to February of 2002. Once again, the NWS forecasted a chance of rain with highs around 50. By that afternoon, we had 8 inches of snow on the ground. There are other examples that I could site, but the local forecasters in SHreveport do a horrendous job in forecasting winter weather in this area, particularly when upper level features are involved. Evidently, they don't take the dewpoints into consideration when making their forcast.

[gboudx]

Well, I hope you get snow, but that the area along I-20 does not. We're heading that way on the 26th on the way to New Orleans to visit family. I'd rather not deal with ice on bridges.

[Tireman4]

I hope for snow in the Humble area. That would be nice. I am hopeful. I know it will probably not happen, but it is nice to dream.

[double D]

Evaporational Cooling will keep temps in the 30's. Anyway, the NWS will be out to lunch on this one until it actually starts, which is often the case around here. I'll site some examples. The NWS forcast for Texarkana January 3rd, 1978 was for rain mixed with sleet, changing over to all rain by noon with highs in the upper 40's. By noon, the temp was 28 and we had an inch of ice on the ground. By the next morning, we had 4 inches of sleet on the ground, which is incredible. Another example, the forecast for December 17th, 1983 was for a 20% chance of snow flurries with highs in the mid 40's. By 11:00 oclock, it was 32 and we had 8 inches of snow on the ground. A recent example was December of 2000. The forecast on Friday the 24th was for a slight chance of freezing rain in the morning with temps rising to the low 50's by afternoon. That turned out to be the worst ice storm in the south-central US in over 50 years. This part of the country was declared a Federal Disaster area, and I was without power for 8 days. Forward two more years to February of 2002. Once again, the NWS forecasted a chance of rain with highs around 50. By that afternoon, we had 8 inches of snow on the ground. There are other examples that I could site, but the local forecasters in SHreveport do a horrendous job in forecasting winter weather in this area, particularly when upper level features are involved. Evidently, they don't take the dewpoints into consideration when making their forcast.

Those are some great examples on how hard it is to forecast winter weather down in Texas. Could you imagine how big of a snow storm Texas would have if the temperatures were colder to our north and west? This goes to show you how hard it is for everything to come together to give us snow in Texas. Maybe your examples will give people in Texas a glimmer of hope for some white stuff.

[Extremeweatherguy]

12z GFS still seems to be showing the potential of snow flurries by the evening of Christmas Day:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _084.shtml

[CaptinCrunch]

NWS FT WORTH TX

ANOTHER SUNNY DAY IS IN STORE...WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES.

THERE IS STILL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE INITIAL EVOLUTION OF THE
TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DIVING SOUTH...DIGGING INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND SWEEPING TOWARD THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER.
BEYOND SATURDAY...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT IN TIMING
AMONG THE MID-RANGE MODELS. GFS REMAINS THE FAST OUTLIER...WITH
THE UKMET ON ITS HEELS. NEW 06Z NAM HAS SPED THINGS UP A BIT...
NOW MORE IN LINE WITH 00Z UKMET. REMAINS IS NOW A BIT FASTER.
DESPITE DISCREPANCIES...ALL FAVOR A QUICK EVENT...AND FEEL
CONFIDENT WITH POPS PRIMARILY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

LOW TRACK STILL APPEARS TO BE THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS...NEAR
SOUTHERN EDGE OF CWA. ANY DEVIATION WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST
GREATLY...BUT DECENT MODEL CONTINUITY REMAINS WITH THE STORM
TRACK. ALTHOUGH PROFILES ARE WARMER...ENHANCED LIFT NEAR COLD
CORE WILL PRODUCE SNOW ABOVE THE SFC LAYER. SOME SNOW MAY REACH
THE GROUND ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW ZONES...BUT WILL CARRY
PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE AS RAIN. SFC TEMPS WILL PRECLUDE ANY SLEET OR
FREEZING RAIN. IMPACT TO TRAVEL SHOULD BE LOW...EVEN WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOWS...AS ROADS WILL BE WARM AND TEMPS SHOULD
PRIMARILY BE ABOVE FREEZING. WITH HOLIDAY TRAVEL ON SUNDAY...WILL
NOTIFY THE PUBLIC WITH THE MENTION OF SNOW...WITHOUT CATEGORICAL
SNOW AMOUNTS OR OTHER DOOM.

NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES RAPIDLY ON CHRISTMAS DAY. LOOKS FAR LESS
IMPRESSIVE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...AND STILL FAR TOO DRY FOR ANY
MENTION OF PRECIP.

A FRONT IS PROGGED FOR MIDWEEK...WITH TSRA CHANCES. RAIN CHANCES
MAY LINGER IF EXTENDED MODELS VERIFY...ANOTHER LOW WITH A SOUTHERN
TRACK DAY 6-7.

NO ARCTIC INTRUSIONS IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

[double D]

12z GFS still seems to be showing the potential of snow flurries by the evening of Christmas Day:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _084.shtml

Although this is still a long shot, it is encouraging for se Texas to possible see some snow flurries Christmas Day. It will be interesting to see what the Houston NWS says this afternoon.

[JenBayles]

Snow or no snow, I'm just happy Houston's weather will be colder than last year for Christmas. Maybe a small fire in the fireplace for a change?

[f5]

no snow for south texas this time