Is that a real word???


and I also think it was hail that you were hearing...We had some rain and a few rumbles of thunder, but no hail here in under the dome...
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aggiecutter wrote:Evaporational Cooling will keep temps in the 30's. Anyway, the NWS will be out to lunch on this one until it actually starts, which is often the case around here. I'll site some examples. The NWS forcast for Texarkana January 3rd, 1978 was for rain mixed with sleet, changing over to all rain by noon with highs in the upper 40's. By noon, the temp was 28 and we had an inch of ice on the ground. By the next morning, we had 4 inches of sleet on the ground, which is incredible. Another example, the forecast for December 17th, 1983 was for a 20% chance of snow flurries with highs in the mid 40's. By 11:00 oclock, it was 32 and we had 8 inches of snow on the ground. A recent example was December of 2000. The forecast on Friday the 24th was for a slight chance of freezing rain in the morning with temps rising to the low 50's by afternoon. That turned out to be the worst ice storm in the south-central US in over 50 years. This part of the country was declared a Federal Disaster area, and I was without power for 8 days. Forward two more years to February of 2002. Once again, the NWS forecasted a chance of rain with highs around 50. By that afternoon, we had 8 inches of snow on the ground. There are other examples that I could site, but the local forecasters in SHreveport do a horrendous job in forecasting winter weather in this area, particularly when upper level features are involved. Evidently, they don't take the dewpoints into consideration when making their forcast.
ANOTHER SUNNY DAY IS IN STORE...WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES.
THERE IS STILL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE INITIAL EVOLUTION OF THE
TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DIVING SOUTH...DIGGING INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND SWEEPING TOWARD THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER.
BEYOND SATURDAY...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT IN TIMING
AMONG THE MID-RANGE MODELS. GFS REMAINS THE FAST OUTLIER...WITH
THE UKMET ON ITS HEELS. NEW 06Z NAM HAS SPED THINGS UP A BIT...
NOW MORE IN LINE WITH 00Z UKMET. REMAINS IS NOW A BIT FASTER.
DESPITE DISCREPANCIES...ALL FAVOR A QUICK EVENT...AND FEEL
CONFIDENT WITH POPS PRIMARILY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
LOW TRACK STILL APPEARS TO BE THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS...NEAR
SOUTHERN EDGE OF CWA. ANY DEVIATION WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST
GREATLY...BUT DECENT MODEL CONTINUITY REMAINS WITH THE STORM
TRACK. ALTHOUGH PROFILES ARE WARMER...ENHANCED LIFT NEAR COLD
CORE WILL PRODUCE SNOW ABOVE THE SFC LAYER. SOME SNOW MAY REACH
THE GROUND ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW ZONES...BUT WILL CARRY
PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE AS RAIN. SFC TEMPS WILL PRECLUDE ANY SLEET OR
FREEZING RAIN. IMPACT TO TRAVEL SHOULD BE LOW...EVEN WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOWS...AS ROADS WILL BE WARM AND TEMPS SHOULD
PRIMARILY BE ABOVE FREEZING. WITH HOLIDAY TRAVEL ON SUNDAY...WILL
NOTIFY THE PUBLIC WITH THE MENTION OF SNOW...WITHOUT CATEGORICAL
SNOW AMOUNTS OR OTHER DOOM.
NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES RAPIDLY ON CHRISTMAS DAY. LOOKS FAR LESS
IMPRESSIVE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...AND STILL FAR TOO DRY FOR ANY
MENTION OF PRECIP.
A FRONT IS PROGGED FOR MIDWEEK...WITH TSRA CHANCES. RAIN CHANCES
MAY LINGER IF EXTENDED MODELS VERIFY...ANOTHER LOW WITH A SOUTHERN
TRACK DAY 6-7.
NO ARCTIC INTRUSIONS IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
Extremeweatherguy wrote:12z GFS still seems to be showing the potential of snow flurries by the evening of Christmas Day:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _084.shtml
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