TX Winter Wx Threat # 9--- Another Arctic Outbreak?

[wxman57]

What I should have said is that the pattern across Texas looked more progressive than the last cold outbreak, but you bring up a good point about the surface features being handled poorly by the gfs. I guess it's hard to get a sense of the depth of cold because the GFS handles arctic air masses so poorly.

Yeah, that's precisely my point. I see the 12Z GFS shows tremendous cross-Polar flow and builds a 1014mb high? Something's not right there. Just last week, the GFS was predicting a 1050+ mb high dropping down the Rockies/Plains states next week. Now it's lost.

[wxman57]

The end of the 12z Euro looks...nice.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... uv850_z500

Choose North America at left menu and pick your time. Also set your parameter at Geopotential 500hPA.

Right, flow from Siberia to the Central/S. Plains at 240 hrs. You'd expectd a bit of cold air with that. Also make note of the active southern stream. Could be some ice problems across the Deep South next week.

[Shoshana]

^ Very Deep South? I'm trying to figure out that map.

(Forgive me - I'm a map newbie :blush:)

I know it's next week, but does that look like a "South of Austin maybe the Valley and Houston" kinda event?

Cause it looks like Austin's gonna get cold, but it looks like south of here's gonna get the precip?

Or maybe I'm reading it wrong? Maybe they'll get precip south of here but not the Arctic air?

Maybe I need new glasses!

[wxman57]

^ Very Deep South? I'm trying to figure out that map.

(Forgive me - I'm a map newbie :blush:)

I know it's next week, but does that look like a "South of Austin maybe the Valley and Houston" kinda event?

Cause it looks like Austin's gonna get cold, but it looks like south of here's gonna get the precip?

Or maybe I'm reading it wrong?

On that map, which represents the 500mb pressure field (about 18,000 ft up), the wind flows basically parallel to the blue lines. Since the blue lines originate in Siberia and end up in the south-central U.S. (and much of the U.S. east of the Rockies), it would suggest that some very cold air is on the way south into the U.S. next week.

But I wouldn't try to use such a map to say that Austin or Houston is going to have an ice problem/event next week. Timing of southern stream disturbances is critical, we'll have to wait and see.

[Shoshana]

Thank you

[Aquawind]

Good Deal.. Finally some solid ice for the polar bears!

[wxman57]

Good Deal.. Finally some solid ice for the polar bears!

If that ECMWF is right, then you may see some polar bears down to Kansas.

[TexasStooge]

Here's some winter weather stupidity in Texas:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uKP_8hFQlGQ

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Here's some winter weather stupidity in Texas:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uKP_8hFQlGQ

Let me guess.

Portastorm, EWG, Aggiecutter, and Captin Crunch??????

[vbhoutex]

Here's some winter weather stupidity in Texas:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uKP_8hFQlGQ

Let me guess.

Portastorm, EWG, Aggiecutter, and Captin Crunch??????

ROFLMAO!!! Yo beat me to it!!!

[aggiecutter]

From this map, you can see areas of high pressure lined up one after another from the southern plains to Siberia next week, although I still don't see that 1050mb+ high that you'd expect to see in this type of pattern.

CPC maps Day 7:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/day7nav.html

[icicle]

oh boy . I love snow, but i've been through two terrible ice storms here in north ms, 94, and again in 98, Power was out for a month in 94 and 2 weeks in 98, so I would prefer nothing at all if we cant get sleet or snow.

[Portastorm]

Here's some winter weather stupidity in Texas:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uKP_8hFQlGQ

Let me guess.

Portastorm, EWG, Aggiecutter, and Captin Crunch??????

ROFLMAO!!! Yo beat me to it!!!

I didn't know anyone was filming us.

[wxman57]

It appears that the 18Z GFS thickness packing has "caught up" with the 500mb flow it has been predicting next week. Compare the 18Z chart with the 12Z valid next Friday. Yep, that's the 516 thickness line in Texas. So much for the GFS not forecasting any cold air at 12Z. Oh, and note that the GFS now builds a massive 1030mb high behind the front. I guess it hasn't mastered the surface features yet.

18Z
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_252m.gif

12Z
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_264m.gif

[Extremeweatherguy]

If that 18z GFS is right, then it would be quite a snowstorm for Texas!

[wxman57]

If that 18z GFS is right, then it would be quite a snowstorm for Texas!

Not necessarily. That's the thickness map valid at 252 hours out. However, the precip is what was forecast to fall during the 12 hours PRIOR to the 252 hour forecast time. If you check out the 12 hours beyond 252 (264hr map) you see no precip over Texas. That means the precip has ended well before that 252hr valid time.

[CaptinCrunch]

Here's some winter weather stupidity in Texas:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uKP_8hFQlGQ

Let me guess.

Portastorm, EWG, Aggiecutter, and Captin Crunch??????

To warm for me.....

[wxman57]

Overnight models continue to show strong cross-Polar flow across North America for the beginning of February. Both the EC and GFS show an incredible Hudson Bay low forming around the middle of next week. GFS drops this vortex down to Lake Superior in the extended time frame.

8-10 Day ECMWF-GFS comaprison
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... tcomp.html

Though the 06Z GFS lost the cold air at the surface, the 00Z GFS does appear to have a clue about what is possible with such a set up. It shows a massive 1056mb high dropping straight down the Plains to Texas late next week.

CHeck out the 264hr 06Z GFS 500mb chart. Polar vortex over Lake Superior on the 3rd:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_264m.gif


300hr 00Z GFS 4-panel
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _300.shtml

Both model continue to also indicate an active southern stream. That means watch out along the Gulf coast states and along the east U.S. Coast over the next few weeks. Bitter cold and passing storm systems if this verifies, and it very well could verify. Could well be some of the coldest weather the U.S. has seen in well over a decade.

[Aquawind]

Nice.. now were talkin Winter. No offense I know it's been rough for you southerners already. Maybe some -30-50F for the northen plains? Highs below zero? That's the good ole winter I know and hated..

[vbhoutex]

I may have to go buy some woolies!!!! Do they make them in whale size?