SE TX / SW LA - Heavy rains this week-Tues. and Fri???

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jasons2k
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#121 Postby jasons2k » Mon Feb 26, 2007 10:54 am

BTW I had a layer of red/brown dust on my cars yesterday AM from the west TX dust storm. That's rare here in Houston. That's also the first time I recall the metroplex itself being in a blowing dust advisory since we moved here in '88.
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#122 Postby PTrackerLA » Mon Feb 26, 2007 2:37 pm

jschlitz wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:Looks like our severe threat has greatly diminished this morning. The SPC has moved the threat area much further north for the day 3 and day 4 outlook.


Yeah, unfortuntely this is starting to look like the last few seasons where all the excitement just skipped us to the north.


This seems to be the time of year (at least over the past 3-4 years) that we start busting on these rain and severe weather events and end up having a prolonged dry spell that turns into a major drought by late spring. I'm hoping this won't be the case this year but this is how it starts. I just don't want to have to water this spring!
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#123 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Mon Feb 26, 2007 3:47 pm

jschlitz wrote:BTW I had a layer of red/brown dust on my cars yesterday AM from the west TX dust storm. That's rare here in Houston. That's also the first time I recall the metroplex itself being in a blowing dust advisory since we moved here in '88.
I had some dust here too. Pretty crazy sight for this area.
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#124 Postby weatherrabbit_tx » Mon Feb 26, 2007 8:48 pm

dry spring= tropical activity for texas coast, it was like that in 2003 and 2005....maybe all storms will be fishes this season! :D.........read somewhere we may be heading into an El Nina, if thats the case last years lid on the storms would go poof.
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#125 Postby weatherrabbit_tx » Mon Feb 26, 2007 8:50 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
jschlitz wrote:BTW I had a layer of red/brown dust on my cars yesterday AM from the west TX dust storm. That's rare here in Houston. That's also the first time I recall the metroplex itself being in a blowing dust advisory since we moved here in '88.
I had some dust here too. Pretty crazy sight for this area.


was wondering what that was on my black ion car, I know I havent washed it in a while :lol:
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#126 Postby southerngale » Mon Feb 26, 2007 10:11 pm

weatherrabbit_tx wrote:dry spring= tropical activity for texas coast, it was like that in 2003 and 2005....maybe all storms will be fishes this season! :D.........read somewhere we may be heading into an El Nina, if thats the case last years lid on the storms would go poof.

We had a really dry spring last year though. We were in a severe drought and no storms anywhere even close.
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#127 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Wed Feb 28, 2007 3:42 pm

It is amazing how all these severe events are missing us to the NE this year!

seems like tomorrow will be another example of that...

almost ALL of the SE United States is under a moderate risk, while we in SE Texas are only on the outer edge of the possible thunder area.

In some aspects this is a good thing because we do not need severe weather, but in other aspects I am somewhat disappointed, because I have not seen a T-storm in a good 3-4+ months..
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#128 Postby jasons2k » Wed Feb 28, 2007 5:16 pm

yeah, I feel the same way. I don't like to see damage from severe storms but at the same time I do suffer from 'Supercell Deprivation Syndrome':

http://texastailchaser.com/SDS/
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#129 Postby srainhoutx » Wed Feb 28, 2007 11:01 pm

it does appear that we are in store for a bit more coolish weather according to Austin/San Antonio afternoon AFD...


FXUS64 KEWX 282123
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
323 PM CST WED FEB 28 2007

.DISCUSSION...
THE PACIFIC FRONT IS STILL ON-TRACK TO PUSH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH A BREEZY AND EXTREMELY DRY DAY
ON-TAP THURSDAY. THE SCENARIO IS VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED
THIS PAST SATURDAY...BUT LESS WIND. WE`RE EXPECTING A LITTLE COLD
AIR ADVECTION...BUT WILL BE OFF-SET DURING THE DAY BY DOWNSLOPE
WARMING AND SURFACE HEATING. A SECOND FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ON
SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER VERY DRY AND POTENTIALLY BREEZY DAY
EXPECTED. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGES GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH A LARGE RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAIN WEST AND
A TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN-U.S. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER AIR TO
MOVE SOUTH OVER OUR AREA BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY...WITH A DRY
NW FLOW ALOFT MAKING FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS BOTH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...HILL COUNTRY
VALLEYS AND AREAS PRONE TO COLD-AIR DRAINAGE ADJACENT TO THE HILL
COUNTRY WILL LIKELY SEE MIN TEMPS AT OR BELOW FREEZING THIS
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
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#130 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Thu Mar 01, 2007 6:48 am

This is interesting...

Image

A line of storms seems to be developing along the front in the last hour or so.

If this trend continues, then we may get some storms out of this after all! The SPC will probably have to shift the slight risk area a little further west with their next day 1 outlook too (which comes out around 7am).<<especially into NE Texas where they have already mentioned a possible tornado watch.
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#131 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Thu Mar 01, 2007 7:20 am

Tornado watch now in effect for NE Texas...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ ... ar_big.gif

Warnings are going up too...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC073-011315-
/O.NEW.KSHV.SV.W.0016.070301T1227Z-070301T1315Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
627 AM CST THU MAR 1 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CHEROKEE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS

* UNTIL 715 AM CST

* AT 627 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 12
MILES SOUTHWEST OF RUSK...MOVING EAST NORTHEAST NEAR 50 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
RUSK AND 9 MILES NORTH OF ALTO BY 635 AM CST

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED... ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

REPEATING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CHEROKEE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS
UNTIL 715 AM CST.
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#132 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Thu Mar 01, 2007 8:05 am

Looks like the line may be weakening a bit right now. None the less, it will still be an interesting feature to follow as we start getting later into the morning hours.
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#133 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Thu Mar 01, 2007 3:42 pm

well, after a round of brief heavy (T-storm like) rains this morning, things have turned out for the best here this afternoon! Sunshine, a breeze, low dewpoints and highs in the mid 70s! ahh...

What a nice day! :)
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#134 Postby PTrackerLA » Thu Mar 01, 2007 7:09 pm

We got missed by all the bad weather today (thankfully) even though we were under the PDS Tornado watch for a while. Hopefully next week we get some rain because we haven't had a good soaking in a while.
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#135 Postby jasons2k » Tue Mar 06, 2007 6:00 pm

I guess with this boring "poor man's" weather nobody wants to post any more, so I'll just ramble for a bit...

It looks like Spring is now in full force with almost all the trees blooming-out now. Thank goodness most of us missed a freeze this last go-around.

I sure would like to see some real weather for a change. The latest AFD from the NWS mentions the dreaded "cap" word for this Sunday's T-storm threat/frontal passage. It seems like it is an annual fixture here now and it doesn't seem to matter if we are in an El Nino, La Nina, or neutral pattern, the cap still wants to take over. Makes me wonder if this is all part of "climate change" or if we'll ever break out of this pattern. See - I keep rambling on-and-on about this hoping, just hoping, Murphy's Law will come into play, Murphy will prove me wrong, and we'll have a storm-filled spring worthy of old-timers' tales...

I think most of the trunks/petioles of my banana plants survived the freeze and will sprout new leaves soon. I watered then heavily before the freeze and used Cloudcover on them. The majesty palms survived but the fronds are burned pretty bad. Same with my pygmy dates. Some pygmy dates down the road, out in the open, (and at a lower elevation) look completely burned from the freeze but may come back.

Hey Richtrav - I defer to you on the Norfolk Island pines. They all look good around here. Must be a hardy variety or something.

OK - rambling done.

Come on spring!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :sun:
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#136 Postby Yankeegirl » Tue Mar 06, 2007 11:06 pm

[font=Verdana][marq=right]SuchBoringWeather....[/marq][/font]
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#137 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue Mar 06, 2007 11:48 pm

Yankeegirl wrote:[font=Verdana][marq=right]SuchBoringWeather....[/marq][/font]
I agree. I am ready for something more like this...

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MTccLBFAdRg[/youtube]

I really love a nice nighttime lightning display.
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#138 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Wed Mar 07, 2007 12:01 am

0z GFS looks very interesting for Sunday evening through next Tuesday...

Sunday evening: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _120.shtml

Monday morning: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _132.shtml

Monday evening: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _144.shtml

Tuesday morning: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _156.shtml

Tuesday evening: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _168.shtml

It looks like it wants to just explode an area of low pressure over SE Texas and then meander it over us for a couple of days.
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#139 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Wed Mar 07, 2007 7:45 am

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#140 Postby jasons2k » Wed Mar 07, 2007 10:45 am

Yeah, the NWS noted this trend yesterday with the GFS cutting-off the low. They also noted the Euro was more consistent so they went with that. It'll be interesting to see how it plays out, but I'd hold off on what the GFS is doing for now.
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