SE TX / SW LA - Heavy rains this week-Tues. and Fri???
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- PTrackerLA
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jschlitz wrote:Extremeweatherguy wrote:Looks like our severe threat has greatly diminished this morning. The SPC has moved the threat area much further north for the day 3 and day 4 outlook.
Yeah, unfortuntely this is starting to look like the last few seasons where all the excitement just skipped us to the north.
This seems to be the time of year (at least over the past 3-4 years) that we start busting on these rain and severe weather events and end up having a prolonged dry spell that turns into a major drought by late spring. I'm hoping this won't be the case this year but this is how it starts. I just don't want to have to water this spring!
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- Extremeweatherguy
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I had some dust here too. Pretty crazy sight for this area.jschlitz wrote:BTW I had a layer of red/brown dust on my cars yesterday AM from the west TX dust storm. That's rare here in Houston. That's also the first time I recall the metroplex itself being in a blowing dust advisory since we moved here in '88.
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- weatherrabbit_tx
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- weatherrabbit_tx
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Extremeweatherguy wrote:I had some dust here too. Pretty crazy sight for this area.jschlitz wrote:BTW I had a layer of red/brown dust on my cars yesterday AM from the west TX dust storm. That's rare here in Houston. That's also the first time I recall the metroplex itself being in a blowing dust advisory since we moved here in '88.
was wondering what that was on my black ion car, I know I havent washed it in a while

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- southerngale
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weatherrabbit_tx wrote:dry spring= tropical activity for texas coast, it was like that in 2003 and 2005....maybe all storms will be fishes this season!.........read somewhere we may be heading into an El Nina, if thats the case last years lid on the storms would go poof.
We had a really dry spring last year though. We were in a severe drought and no storms anywhere even close.
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- Extremeweatherguy
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It is amazing how all these severe events are missing us to the NE this year!
seems like tomorrow will be another example of that...
almost ALL of the SE United States is under a moderate risk, while we in SE Texas are only on the outer edge of the possible thunder area.
In some aspects this is a good thing because we do not need severe weather, but in other aspects I am somewhat disappointed, because I have not seen a T-storm in a good 3-4+ months..
seems like tomorrow will be another example of that...
almost ALL of the SE United States is under a moderate risk, while we in SE Texas are only on the outer edge of the possible thunder area.
In some aspects this is a good thing because we do not need severe weather, but in other aspects I am somewhat disappointed, because I have not seen a T-storm in a good 3-4+ months..
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- jasons2k
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yeah, I feel the same way. I don't like to see damage from severe storms but at the same time I do suffer from 'Supercell Deprivation Syndrome':
http://texastailchaser.com/SDS/
http://texastailchaser.com/SDS/
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- srainhoutx
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it does appear that we are in store for a bit more coolish weather according to Austin/San Antonio afternoon AFD...
FXUS64 KEWX 282123
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
323 PM CST WED FEB 28 2007
.DISCUSSION...
THE PACIFIC FRONT IS STILL ON-TRACK TO PUSH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH A BREEZY AND EXTREMELY DRY DAY
ON-TAP THURSDAY. THE SCENARIO IS VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED
THIS PAST SATURDAY...BUT LESS WIND. WE`RE EXPECTING A LITTLE COLD
AIR ADVECTION...BUT WILL BE OFF-SET DURING THE DAY BY DOWNSLOPE
WARMING AND SURFACE HEATING. A SECOND FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ON
SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER VERY DRY AND POTENTIALLY BREEZY DAY
EXPECTED. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGES GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH A LARGE RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAIN WEST AND
A TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN-U.S. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER AIR TO
MOVE SOUTH OVER OUR AREA BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY...WITH A DRY
NW FLOW ALOFT MAKING FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS BOTH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...HILL COUNTRY
VALLEYS AND AREAS PRONE TO COLD-AIR DRAINAGE ADJACENT TO THE HILL
COUNTRY WILL LIKELY SEE MIN TEMPS AT OR BELOW FREEZING THIS
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
FXUS64 KEWX 282123
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
323 PM CST WED FEB 28 2007
.DISCUSSION...
THE PACIFIC FRONT IS STILL ON-TRACK TO PUSH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH A BREEZY AND EXTREMELY DRY DAY
ON-TAP THURSDAY. THE SCENARIO IS VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED
THIS PAST SATURDAY...BUT LESS WIND. WE`RE EXPECTING A LITTLE COLD
AIR ADVECTION...BUT WILL BE OFF-SET DURING THE DAY BY DOWNSLOPE
WARMING AND SURFACE HEATING. A SECOND FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ON
SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER VERY DRY AND POTENTIALLY BREEZY DAY
EXPECTED. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGES GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH A LARGE RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAIN WEST AND
A TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN-U.S. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER AIR TO
MOVE SOUTH OVER OUR AREA BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY...WITH A DRY
NW FLOW ALOFT MAKING FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS BOTH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...HILL COUNTRY
VALLEYS AND AREAS PRONE TO COLD-AIR DRAINAGE ADJACENT TO THE HILL
COUNTRY WILL LIKELY SEE MIN TEMPS AT OR BELOW FREEZING THIS
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
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- Extremeweatherguy
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This is interesting...
A line of storms seems to be developing along the front in the last hour or so.
If this trend continues, then we may get some storms out of this after all! The SPC will probably have to shift the slight risk area a little further west with their next day 1 outlook too (which comes out around 7am).<<especially into NE Texas where they have already mentioned a possible tornado watch.

A line of storms seems to be developing along the front in the last hour or so.
If this trend continues, then we may get some storms out of this after all! The SPC will probably have to shift the slight risk area a little further west with their next day 1 outlook too (which comes out around 7am).<<especially into NE Texas where they have already mentioned a possible tornado watch.
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- Extremeweatherguy
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Tornado watch now in effect for NE Texas...
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ ... ar_big.gif
Warnings are going up too...
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ ... ar_big.gif
Warnings are going up too...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC073-011315-
/O.NEW.KSHV.SV.W.0016.070301T1227Z-070301T1315Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
627 AM CST THU MAR 1 2007
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CHEROKEE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS
* UNTIL 715 AM CST
* AT 627 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 12
MILES SOUTHWEST OF RUSK...MOVING EAST NORTHEAST NEAR 50 MPH.
* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
RUSK AND 9 MILES NORTH OF ALTO BY 635 AM CST
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED... ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.
REPEATING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CHEROKEE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS
UNTIL 715 AM CST.
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- Extremeweatherguy
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- Extremeweatherguy
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- PTrackerLA
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- jasons2k
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I guess with this boring "poor man's" weather nobody wants to post any more, so I'll just ramble for a bit...
It looks like Spring is now in full force with almost all the trees blooming-out now. Thank goodness most of us missed a freeze this last go-around.
I sure would like to see some real weather for a change. The latest AFD from the NWS mentions the dreaded "cap" word for this Sunday's T-storm threat/frontal passage. It seems like it is an annual fixture here now and it doesn't seem to matter if we are in an El Nino, La Nina, or neutral pattern, the cap still wants to take over. Makes me wonder if this is all part of "climate change" or if we'll ever break out of this pattern. See - I keep rambling on-and-on about this hoping, just hoping, Murphy's Law will come into play, Murphy will prove me wrong, and we'll have a storm-filled spring worthy of old-timers' tales...
I think most of the trunks/petioles of my banana plants survived the freeze and will sprout new leaves soon. I watered then heavily before the freeze and used Cloudcover on them. The majesty palms survived but the fronds are burned pretty bad. Same with my pygmy dates. Some pygmy dates down the road, out in the open, (and at a lower elevation) look completely burned from the freeze but may come back.
Hey Richtrav - I defer to you on the Norfolk Island pines. They all look good around here. Must be a hardy variety or something.
OK - rambling done.
Come on spring!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
It looks like Spring is now in full force with almost all the trees blooming-out now. Thank goodness most of us missed a freeze this last go-around.
I sure would like to see some real weather for a change. The latest AFD from the NWS mentions the dreaded "cap" word for this Sunday's T-storm threat/frontal passage. It seems like it is an annual fixture here now and it doesn't seem to matter if we are in an El Nino, La Nina, or neutral pattern, the cap still wants to take over. Makes me wonder if this is all part of "climate change" or if we'll ever break out of this pattern. See - I keep rambling on-and-on about this hoping, just hoping, Murphy's Law will come into play, Murphy will prove me wrong, and we'll have a storm-filled spring worthy of old-timers' tales...
I think most of the trunks/petioles of my banana plants survived the freeze and will sprout new leaves soon. I watered then heavily before the freeze and used Cloudcover on them. The majesty palms survived but the fronds are burned pretty bad. Same with my pygmy dates. Some pygmy dates down the road, out in the open, (and at a lower elevation) look completely burned from the freeze but may come back.
Hey Richtrav - I defer to you on the Norfolk Island pines. They all look good around here. Must be a hardy variety or something.
OK - rambling done.
Come on spring!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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- Yankeegirl
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- Extremeweatherguy
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- Extremeweatherguy
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- Location: Florida
0z GFS looks very interesting for Sunday evening through next Tuesday...
Sunday evening: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _120.shtml
Monday morning: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _132.shtml
Monday evening: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _144.shtml
Tuesday morning: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _156.shtml
Tuesday evening: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _168.shtml
It looks like it wants to just explode an area of low pressure over SE Texas and then meander it over us for a couple of days.
Sunday evening: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _120.shtml
Monday morning: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _132.shtml
Monday evening: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _144.shtml
Tuesday morning: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _156.shtml
Tuesday evening: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _168.shtml
It looks like it wants to just explode an area of low pressure over SE Texas and then meander it over us for a couple of days.
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- Extremeweatherguy
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6z GFS continues the interesting trend...especially for next Monday...
Mon. midnight = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _120.shtml
Mon. morning = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _126.shtml
Mon. afternoon = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _132.shtml
Mon. evening = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _138.shtml
Mon. midnight = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _120.shtml
Mon. morning = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _126.shtml
Mon. afternoon = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _132.shtml
Mon. evening = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _138.shtml
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