SPac: Tropical Depression 12F (TCFA issued)

[Chacor]

WTPS21 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/220851ZMAR2007//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 250 NM RADIUS OF 14.9S 174.9E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 220600Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.9S 175.1E. THE SYSTEM IS
QUASI-STATIONARY AT 00 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.5S
175.1E HAS BEEN RELOCATED TO NEAR 14.9S 175.1E, APPROXIMATELY 190
NM NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 220229Z AMSU IMAGE REVEAL FLARING CONVECTION ON THE EASTERN
QUADRANTS OF A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND LOW
TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, INCREASINGLY STRONG
VWS EXISTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC, WHICH IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
230900Z.//

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 22/0923 UTC 2007 UTC.

TROPICAL EPRESSION TD 12F [1000HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5S
175.0E AT 220900 UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT EIR
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. SST AROUND 30 DEGREE CELCIUS.

DEPRESSION LIES TO THE SOUTH UNDERNEATH A 250-HPA OUTFLOW IN A
STRONGLY DIFLUENT REGION WITH STRONG SHEAR TO THE SOUTH OF THE DENSE
OVERCAST.CONVECTION HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED NEAR LLCC FOR THE PAST 12
HOURS. ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED WITH TOPS COOLING STEADILY. OUTFLOW
FAIR TO EAST AND NORTH BUT POOR ELSEWHERE. GLOBAL MODELS THAT HAVE
CAPTURED THE SYSTEM GENERALLY AGREE ON SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT
WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION. THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO
MODERATE.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE AREA.

[HURAKAN]

22/0833 UTC 14.5S 175.0E T1.5/1.5 90P -- South Pacific Ocean

[Chacor]

WTPS11 NFFN 221500 CCA
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A1 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 22/1541 UTC 2007 UTC.

**CORRECTION FOR POSITION**
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12F [998 HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5S
175.6E AT 221200 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON PERIPHERAL SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND MTSAT EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. DEPRESSION SLOW
MOVING BUT EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST LATER. EXPECT SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 30 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE INCREASING TO 35 KNOTS IN
THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

LLCC IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. LLCC IS INTERPOLATED TO THE WESTERN EDGE
OF COLD OVERCAST. OUTFLOW GOOD IN THE EAST BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE.
DVORAK BASED CURVED BAND PATTERN YIELDS A DT2.0. MET AND PAT AGREE,
THUS T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS. SST AROUND 28C. DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
BE STEERED EAST BY DEEP LAYER MEAN WINDS. CIMMS INDICATES VERY STRONG
40+ KNOTS SHEAR SOUTH OF 17S. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON
EAST-SOUTHEAST TRACK BUT WITHOUT MAJOR INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS IS HIGH.

THIS IS THE FIRST TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD 12F AND THE
NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 222000 UTC.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

22/2033 UTC 14.3S 175.1E T2.0/2.0 90P -- South Pacific Ocean



TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 22/2012 UTC 2007 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12F [998 HPA] CENTRE WAS RE-LOCATED NEAR 14.5S
175.2E AT 221800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. DEPRESSION SLOW MOVING BUT EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
GRADUALLY. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE
POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE IN
THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

LLCC LOCATED JUST UNDER WESTERN EDGE OF COLD OVERCAST. ORGANISATION
ALMOST STEADY PAST 6 HOURS. HOWEVER, CONVECTION STILL COOLING AND
REDEVELOPED CLOSER TO LLCC. OUTFLOW GOOD TO EAST BUT RESTRICTED
ELSEWHERE. DVORAK BASED ON 0.4 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL YIELDING A
DT2.5. MET AND PAT AGREE, THUS T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS. SST AROUND 28C.
DEPRESSION CURRENTLY CAUGHT IN WEAK STEERING REGIME BUT EXPECTED TO
BE STEERED SOUTHEAST GRADUALLY. CIMMS INCREASES SHEAR OVER SYSTEM
WITH MUCH STRONGER SHEAR TO SOUTH. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON
SOUTHEAST TRACK BUT WITH MODEST INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD 12F WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 230200 UTC.

[Chacor]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A3 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 23/0134 UTC 2007 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12F [998 HPA] CENTRE WAS RE-LOCATED NEAR 14.4S
174.7E AT 230000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT VIS/EIR IMAGERY
WITH ANIMATION. DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 2 KNOTS.

LLCC WELL EXPOSED, SHEARED MORE THAN 60NM NW OF DEEP CONVECTION, AND
RAPIDLY DISINTEGRATING. DVORAK BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN YIELDING A
DT1.5. MET AND PAT AGREE, THUS T1.5/2.5/S0.0/24HRS. SST AROUND 28C.
POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD 12F UNLESS
IT RE-INTENSIFIES.

[HURAKAN]

If the system continues to loose organization, the TCFA could & should be cancelled.

[Chacor]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.9S
175.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.4S 175.2E, APPROXIMATELY 220 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 222145Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL FLARING CONVECTION ALONG
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERIES OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). ADDITIONALLY, NEW CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO FORM
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT BUT MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). AT THIS TIME, VWS APPEARS TO BE INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. SEE
REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 220900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD.

[Chacor]

WTPS21 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 230851Z MAR 07//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/220851ZMAR2007//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 240 NM RADIUS OF 15.1S 175.0E WITHIN THE NEXT 00 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 230530Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.1S 175.0E. THE SYSTEM IS
QUASI-STATIONARY AT 00 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 14.9S 175.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.1S 175.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 190 NM NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 230217Z AMSRE IMAGE REVEAL FLARING
CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERIES OF A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ADDITIONALLY, NEW CONVECTION IS BEGINNING
TO FORM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT BUT MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). AT THIS TIME, VWS APPEARS TO BE INHIBITING
DEVELOPMENT, THOUGH SOME NUMERICAL MODELS FORECAST VWS TO DECREASE
SLIGHTLY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB.
SEE REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 220900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
240900Z.
//

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A3 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 23/0134 UTC 2007 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12F [998 HPA] CENTRE WAS RE-LOCATED NEAR 14.4S
174.7E AT 230000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT VIS/EIR IMAGERY
WITH ANIMATION. DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 2 KNOTS.

LLCC WELL EXPOSED, SHEARED MORE THAN 60NM NW OF DEEP CONVECTION, AND
RAPIDLY DISINTEGRATING. DVORAK BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN YIELDING A
DT1.5. MET AND PAT AGREE, THUS T1.5/2.5/S0.0/24HRS. SST AROUND 28C.
POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD 12F UNLESS
IT RE-INTENSIFIES.