MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/220851ZMAR2007//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 250 NM RADIUS OF 14.9S 174.9E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 220600Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.9S 175.1E. THE SYSTEM IS
QUASI-STATIONARY AT 00 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.5S
175.1E HAS BEEN RELOCATED TO NEAR 14.9S 175.1E, APPROXIMATELY 190
NM NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 220229Z AMSU IMAGE REVEAL FLARING CONVECTION ON THE EASTERN
QUADRANTS OF A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND LOW
TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, INCREASINGLY STRONG
VWS EXISTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC, WHICH IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
230900Z.//
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 22/0923 UTC 2007 UTC.
TROPICAL EPRESSION TD 12F [1000HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5S
175.0E AT 220900 UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT EIR
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. SST AROUND 30 DEGREE CELCIUS.
DEPRESSION LIES TO THE SOUTH UNDERNEATH A 250-HPA OUTFLOW IN A
STRONGLY DIFLUENT REGION WITH STRONG SHEAR TO THE SOUTH OF THE DENSE
OVERCAST.CONVECTION HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED NEAR LLCC FOR THE PAST 12
HOURS. ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED WITH TOPS COOLING STEADILY. OUTFLOW
FAIR TO EAST AND NORTH BUT POOR ELSEWHERE. GLOBAL MODELS THAT HAVE
CAPTURED THE SYSTEM GENERALLY AGREE ON SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT
WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION. THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO
MODERATE.
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE AREA.

