Accu-weather 2007 Hurricane Forecast

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StormWarning1
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Accu-weather 2007 Hurricane Forecast

#1 Postby StormWarning1 » Tue May 08, 2007 12:46 pm

This just came out today on the free site.

Looks like a big year for Florida activity.

http://wwwa.accuweather.com/pressroom.asp?pr=wx_262.htm
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#2 Postby miamicanes177 » Tue May 08, 2007 12:59 pm

They forecast 13-14 named storms (3 or more major) with 6-7 of those named storms striking the US coast.
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#3 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 08, 2007 1:06 pm

Media frenzy

:uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow:

The media frenzy has started about this forecast from Joe Bastardi.
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#4 Postby KWT » Tue May 08, 2007 1:17 pm

Intrestingly the numbers aren't as high as some of the other forecasts, though obviously numbers won't matter if any of those majors find themsleves making landfall, sounds a little like 2004.
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#5 Postby loro-rojo » Tue May 08, 2007 3:23 pm

I dont know if anyone has said this already, but the Weather Channel has been calling this system a sub-tropical storm since 10am today. Apparently, the WC believes that this system has aquired sub-tropical characteristics.
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#6 Postby SWFLA_CANE » Tue May 08, 2007 3:26 pm

Well if Accuweather is calling for a big year in Florida, I guess those of us that live in Florida could rest a little easier :D
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#7 Postby hawkeh » Tue May 08, 2007 3:38 pm

SWFLA_CANE wrote:Well if Accuweather is calling for a big year in Florida, I guess those of us that live in Florida could rest a little easier :D


Pretty much :lol:
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#8 Postby deltadog03 » Tue May 08, 2007 3:42 pm

hey, I really think he has a point this year with Florida!!
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#9 Postby mf_dolphin » Tue May 08, 2007 3:48 pm

Admin Note: Let's not start with the ACCUWEATHER bashing please :-) It's going to be a long year as it is ;-)
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#10 Postby brunota2003 » Tue May 08, 2007 3:49 pm

Every year...Florida and the Carolinas...(well, last year was the NE to, right?)
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#11 Postby JonathanBelles » Tue May 08, 2007 3:52 pm

There goes gas prices soaring past $4/gal! I dont think it will stay under $4 for long.
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#12 Postby x-y-no » Tue May 08, 2007 4:16 pm

It seems to me nobody has much skill at seasonal landfall predictions yet. I respect Bastardi's effort though, he goes to considerable lengths to make a meaningfully verifiable prediction.

Wish he'd do the same with storm stracks.
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#13 Postby johngaltfla » Tue May 08, 2007 5:53 pm

I was listening to a forecaster who shall remain nameless and she forecast an active GoM this year. Her primary focus is long range forecasting for insurance companies and businesses. If the cards all come together, we could be in for a very long summer and fall. Let's hope that everyone learned some lessons from 04 & 05 and actually prepare for the storms this time.
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#14 Postby AL Chili Pepper » Tue May 08, 2007 6:43 pm

fact789 wrote:There goes gas prices soaring past $4/gal! I dont think it will stay under $4 for long.


Not to mention homeowner's insurance. A lot of the companies are trying to pull out of the Gulf Coastal regions, and most of the others are increasing their rates dramatically. Here's hoping to an inactive season!
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#15 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Tue May 08, 2007 7:40 pm

I would have to agree with Bastardi on the idea of a severe season
(one with several major hurricanes).
Sea Surface Temperatures are above normal
Pressures Below Normal
And Shear Below Normal

These factors equal a bad hurricane season
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#16 Postby seaswing » Tue May 08, 2007 7:50 pm

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:I would have to agree with Bastardi on the idea of a severe season
(one with several major hurricanes).
Sea Surface Temperatures are above normal
Pressures Below Normal
And Shear Below Normal

These factors equal a bad hurricane season


I have to agree with this statement. Last year it was the year of the shear, this year, I don't think we will be that lucky. I do think it will be active for Florida and whether the storms hit Florida and move on to other states, well who knows but IMHO, I do think it might be similar to 2004..... OF COURSE, THIS IS JUST MY OPINION AND NOT A FORECAST.
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#17 Postby ROCK » Tue May 08, 2007 8:04 pm

at least JB didn't mention Texas.... which as I think about it could be a bad thing.... :D


I have a seminar schedule for May 22, here in Houston with Impact Weather. They do independant forecasting for private companies mostly oil and gas. Will be interesting to hear what they have to say about this year..... I will pass it on.......
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#18 Postby seaswing » Tue May 08, 2007 8:19 pm

I was just about to ask you if you would pass it on because it will be interesting to hear what an independent has to say about it this year.
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#19 Postby Steve » Tue May 08, 2007 8:47 pm

>>at least JB didn't mention Texas.... which as I think about it could be a bad thing....

Apparently they said it was twice as likely as a normal year to see activity per the WWLTV story on CSU & Bastardi.
I remember JB discussing an alternating 3 year cycle we've been in for a while (at least since 2002) where the seasons want to alternate little US impact, FL & east coast, gulf years. They could be somewhat onto something if the activity threatens Florida primarily (as 2004's season did). I think the idea of a bullseye on FL with some northerly and westerly compontents (obviously) makes sense from the limited amount of stuff I've read this year. I'm not making a value judgment on their forecast (or anyone's) until after the season, if ever.

Here's the WWL tv link:

http://www.wwltv.com/local/stories/wwl0 ... 19148.html

Although Bastardi predicts fewer storms than his counterparts, he agreed 2007 would be more active than usual. Bastardi, who said the nation is in "a very, very volatile" weather period, said he expects 13 or 14 named storms, with the Texas Gulf coast having twice the average likelihood of a storm making landfall and Florida appearing four times as likely.

Steve
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#20 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue May 08, 2007 8:49 pm

ROCK wrote:at least JB didn't mention Texas.... which as I think about it could be a bad thing.... :D


I have a seminar schedule for May 22, here in Houston with Impact Weather. They do independant forecasting for private companies mostly oil and gas. Will be interesting to hear what they have to say about this year..... I will pass it on.......
lol. Yeah, I was thinking that too. Last year he called for at least one Cat. 2+ to hit Texas (and I believed him too)...it never happened. So I guess this year, when he doesn't mention Texas, that means we need to be on high alert for a possible storm.
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