INVEST 92L SE GOM Sat Pics,Models,Analysis

[Ivanhater]

Most models show some kind of low pressure....

[N2FSU]

From the Tallahassee NWS discussion:

.SHORT TERM...
(TODAY-SATURDAY) THE 00 UTC MODEL RUNS ARE STILL HAVING A
CHALLENGING TIME HANDLING THE DEVELOPMENT AND EVENTUAL TRACK OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY DEVELOPING NEAR THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THE 00 UTC NAM RESEMBLES THE GFS FROM LAST NIGHT...AS
IT BRINGS A STRONGER LOW UP TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF. THIS WOULD
PLACE OUR AREA IN A FAVORABLE ZONE FOR MUCH-NEEDED RAIN (AS WELL
AS WINDY CONDITIONS). THE GFS AND ECMWF TAKE THE SYSTEM NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH WOULD
KEEP MOST OF THE RAIN AND WIND TO OUR SOUTH. THE GFS HAS BECOME
MORE CONSISTENT IN ITS LAST FEW RUNS...AND ITS SOLUTION MATCHES
WELL WITH THE 12 UTC GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IS TIMING...WHICH SHOULD NOT IMPACT OUR
FORECAST MUCH. WE FAVORED THE FASTER GFS SOLUTION...AS THIS LOOKS
TO BE A HIGHLY SHEARED...ASSYMETRICAL...EXTRATROPICAL (OR AT BEST
SUBTROPICAL) CYCLONE...WITH STRONG WESTERLIES ALOFT TILTING THE
VORTICITY FIELD AND SHEARING THE UPPER CLOUDS OFF TO THE EAST. WE
DID NOT WANT TO GO QUITE AS DRY AS THE GFS MOS POP FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...SO WE USED A BLEND OF OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE MOS
POP. AS MUCH AS WE NEED THE RAIN...IT APPEARS THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT
BE THE ANSWER.

[Aric Dunn]

I have two small problems with the low center being where they say it is ...... and not farther south.. two reports in belize here http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TLPC.html and here http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TLPL.html both have An east component to the winds .. thats a problem ..... if the center is north of belize than they would not have E and even eSe as in those reports

now given that there are probably some issues with the reporting stations there in belize one should not completly rely on these observations alone.. but its somehthing i m looking into .. because... position of this thing is key .. to far north shear .. south upper ridging and more favorable ..

[windstorm99]

Yea iam thinking a more southern track towards the southeast meaning south florida and the keys.

[wjs3]

I found the NCEP model diagnostics discussion interesting. Still a ton of difference in how models are handling the system:

...SYSTEM FCST TO CROSS THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO/FL...

PREFER THE 12Z ECMWF OR COMPROMISE WITH THE SOMEWHAT SLOWER
UKMET/21Z SREF MEAN AS THE BEST OPTION FOR THIS VERY UNCERTAIN
FCST. CONFIDENCE IS EXTREMELY LOW AS THERE IS NOT YET A WELL
DEFINED FEATURE OVER THE REGION WHERE THE SYSTEM IS FCST TO
ORIGINATE. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER CONVECTION NOW FLARING
UP OVER THE NWRN CARIBBEAN S OF 20N LATITUDE MAY PLAY A PART IN
ITS EARLY EVOLUTION. APPEARANCE OF FEEDBACK IN GFS/NAM QPF FIELDS
ALSO RAISES POTENTIAL FOR CONTAMINATION OF THE SFC PATTERN. THE
GFS FCST OF BRINGING LOW PRESSURE MORE AGGRESSIVELY ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA THAN OTHER GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY SUSPECT GIVEN THAT ITS
VERTICAL MOTION/RH/QPF MAXIMUM NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL IS NOT
SUPPORTED BY SATL IMAGERY FOR THE FIRST FEW HRS OF THE FCST. ALSO
THE GFS/NAM QPF DO NOT APPEAR TO COMPARE WELL TO AFOREMENTIONED
CONVECTION NOW OBSERVED OVER THE NWRN CARIBBEAN. THE 00Z
NCEP-GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS SOMEWHAT SLOWER/WEAKER THAN THE GFS BUT
OTHERWISE REFLECTS THE GFS IDEA. THRU ABOUT F48 LATE FRI... THE
NAM/UKMET/12Z ECMWF OFFER THE BEST CONSENSUS WITH TIMING OF THE
MID-UPR TROF CROSSING THE SRN TIER/GULF AND LEADING SFC PATTERN.
AFTER THAT TIME THE NAM STRAYS TO THE LEFT SFC AND ALOFT THOUGH
ITS SFC LOW DEPTH HAS SUPPORT FROM THE ECMWF THRU THE PERIOD. THE
UKMET IS FAIRLY SLOW... AND BY F72 IS REMARKABLY SIMILAR TO THE
21Z SREF MEAN. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS... THE
CANADIAN OFFERS A QUESTIONABLY FAST/STRONG SYSTEM... REACHING NC
WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE IS NO FARTHER NWD THAN 30-32N. HIGH
UNCERTAINTY... POSSIBLE ERRORS WITH EARLY HRS OF THE GFS AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT NAM FCSTS... AND POTENTIALLY ADVERSE IMPACT ON THE
SFC PATTERN BY FEEDBACK... FAVOR A COMPROMISE SOLN CLOSEST TO THE
ECMWF OR COMPROMISE WITH THE SLOWER AND WEAKER UKMET/21Z SREF
MEAN.


WJS3

[windstorm99]

You can certainly make out the turning on this visible.

[Aric Dunn]

I have two small problems with the low center being where they say it is ...... and not farther south.. two reports in belize here http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TLPC.html and here http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TLPL.html both have An east component to the winds .. thats a problem ..... if the center is north of belize than they would not have E and even eSe as in those reports

now given that there are probably some issues with the reporting stations there in belize one should not completly rely on these observations alone.. but its somehthing i m looking into .. because... position of this thing is key .. to far north shear .. south upper ridging and more favorable ..

now the island of roatan near honduras has a NNW wind http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MHRO.html
and the island just to the east of roatan has a south wind http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MHNO.html

so there are two possible answers to where the low actually is..
one its further south some where near those islands.. more off the coast of central belize which would explain the east and ese winds in belize...
and the reports from the islands of honduras..

or two all four reporting stations are screwed up !!!!

and if you want to find the location of the reporting stations use these maps honduras http://educatorsabroad.org/images/maps/Honduras.gif
and belize http://www.reliefweb.int/mapc/amer_cac/ ... ze_map.gif

[Thunder44]

I have two small problems with the low center being where they say it is ...... and not farther south.. two reports in belize here http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TLPC.html and here http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TLPL.html both have An east component to the winds .. thats a problem ..... if the center is north of belize than they would not have E and even eSe as in those reports

now given that there are probably some issues with the reporting stations there in belize one should not completly rely on these observations alone.. but its somehthing i m looking into .. because... position of this thing is key .. to far north shear .. south upper ridging and more favorable ..

That's because you don't have actual closed LLC yet. If you look at visible imagery you can see more low-level cyclonic turning in clouds obs over NE tip of Yucatan now. That is the low, then you have a surface trof along the coast, extending down to the Honduras. It's more of an inverted surface trof or elongated area of low pressure. N to NW winds on the west of the trof and E to SE winds on the east side of it.

[Aric Dunn]

I have two small problems with the low center being where they say it is ...... and not farther south.. two reports in belize here http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TLPC.html and here http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TLPL.html both have An east component to the winds .. thats a problem ..... if the center is north of belize than they would not have E and even eSe as in those reports

now given that there are probably some issues with the reporting stations there in belize one should not completly rely on these observations alone.. but its somehthing i m looking into .. because... position of this thing is key .. to far north shear .. south upper ridging and more favorable ..

That's because you don't have actual closed LLC yet. If you look at visible imagery you can see more low-level cyclonic turning in clouds obs over NE tip of Yucatan now. That is the low, then you have a surface trof along the coast, extending down to the Honduras. It's more of an inverted surface trof or elongated area of low pressure. On the west of the side of the trof you

your seeing mid level turning !

[boca]

Where exactly is the low level turning, down by Roatan Island off Honduras?

[Frank2]

Good rain chance for Florida, especially south of I-4, but, not much else tropical-wise - as the local (South Florida) OCM's mentioned last night, the disturbance is due to a dip in the jet, more than an actual storm system (see below from Miami discussion of this morning):

MEANWHILE...TRENDS IN
LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT QUICKSCAT DATA INDICATE THAT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW IS ALREADY UNDERWAY TO THE EAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SPEED MAX ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAY
OF CAMPECHE.

[windstorm99]

You can see on the nasty weather thats going to be pulled into florida.

[Aric Dunn]

Where exactly is the low level turning, down by Roatan Island off Honduras?

maybe just north of there .... still checking all available data... and i need more visible images .. i will have a better analysis in about an hour.. surface obs support... low further south .. where as visible imagery supports a low south of the western tip of cuba.... need a little longer to make a better analysis


i wish the cuban radar was working.. the last image was from the 12 of may

[Thunder44]

I have two small problems with the low center being where they say it is ...... and not farther south.. two reports in belize here http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TLPC.html and here http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TLPL.html both have An east component to the winds .. thats a problem ..... if the center is north of belize than they would not have E and even eSe as in those reports

now given that there are probably some issues with the reporting stations there in belize one should not completly rely on these observations alone.. but its somehthing i m looking into .. because... position of this thing is key .. to far north shear .. south upper ridging and more favorable ..

That's because you don't have actual closed LLC yet. If you look at visible imagery you can see more low-level cyclonic turning in clouds obs over NE tip of Yucatan now. That is the low, then you have a surface trof along the coast, extending down to the Honduras. It's more of an inverted surface trof or elongated area of low pressure. On the west of the side of the trof you

your seeing mid level turning !

It looks low-level to me as well.

[Aric Dunn]

I have two small problems with the low center being where they say it is ...... and not farther south.. two reports in belize here http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TLPC.html and here http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TLPL.html both have An east component to the winds .. thats a problem ..... if the center is north of belize than they would not have E and even eSe as in those reports

now given that there are probably some issues with the reporting stations there in belize one should not completly rely on these observations alone.. but its somehthing i m looking into .. because... position of this thing is key .. to far north shear .. south upper ridging and more favorable ..

That's because you don't have actual closed LLC yet. If you look at visible imagery you can see more low-level cyclonic turning in clouds obs over NE tip of Yucatan now. That is the low, then you have a surface trof along the coast, extending down to the Honduras. It's more of an inverted surface trof or elongated area of low pressure. On the west of the side of the trof you

your seeing mid level turning !

It looks low-level to me as well.

i can almost bet ... that your seeing mid level circulation............
but i will know more here very soon

[gatorcane]

Anything in the NW Caribbean with as much convection as what we are seeing should be watched.

I'll be closely monitoring it....

[boca]

Where exactly is the low level turning, down by Roatan Island off Honduras?

maybe just north of there .... still checking all available data... and i need more visible images .. i will have a better analysis in about an hour.. surface obs support... low further south .. where as visible imagery supports a low south of the western tip of cuba.... need a little longer to make a better analysis


i wish the cuban radar was working.. the last image was from the 12 of may

When I first looked at the sat the spin looked like it was east of Cozemel, but now it looks further SSW of that area.

[x-y-no]

Bouy 42056 at 19.87 N 85.06 W reports a SE wind at 21.4 kts, gusts over 25 kts. Pressure 1008mb and steady.

[Frank2]

Don't worry, Gatorcane - a really good chance for rain, though, and that's good news down here (hopefully it'll rain over and north of the Lake)...

[Aric Dunn]

I would say take a look here .. bouy and ship reports in the area..... http://www.oceanweather.com/data/ ( then click on marine observation at the top center of the page.... ) the ships wind directions do not directly support a low center that far north .... but it is helpful