WeatherEmperor wrote:I am so happy that you brought up this point. I want to ask you. In 2006 we saw alot of troughs off the east coast which caused recurvature of many of the tropical cyclones that formed. What is the synoptic pattern for 2007 look like right now? If you dont mind, can you compare and contrast the synoptics for 2006 vs 2007.
<RICKY>
Currently, we have been observing a stronger 500 mbar subtropical ridge. Unlike 2006, the higher heights have been displaced further west. If this pattern persists, we could observe some recurves east of the ridge, but the easterly flow should provide lower shear. Pressures are lower than 2006. The combination of ridging and favorable conditions should benefit some homegrown development. The current position of the ridge would increase the risk of landfalls along the Southeast and Gulf coasts.
In 2006, a strong monsoonal trough prevented Cape Verde development. It created dry mid-level conditions and strong low-level shear. These factors prevented convergence, kept waves from separating from the ITCZ, and reduced convection. It also increased SAL outbreaks, and the strong ridge in the eastern Atlantic worsened these conditions. Wave axes could not remain as well-defined; thus, the entire environment was quite inhibitive for Cape Verde development. The strong eastern Atlantic ridge enhanced a persistent tropospheric trough, and this resulted in the recurvature of several systems in the central Atlantic.
The strong eastern Atlantic ridge and monsoonal trough have not been prevalent in 2007. If these trends persist, wave axes could remain organized as they progress westward. In addition, we could observe lower MDR pressures. This would create a favorable convergence environment for convective persistence. The current pattern would suggest a stronger Bermuda ridge, and this would raise the possibility of threats for the Southeast and Gulf coasts. This would favor more homegrown development (ala 1995 and 2005). In a general sense, the current pattern does not resemble 2006 in any form.