Early season activity to overall season activity correlation

[dwg71]

FYI - just passing stats.

Since 1950 there have been 11 years in which we had multiple storms prior to July 1st.
57,59,66,68,72,81,82,86,97,03,05

Average Activity for those years... 11/6/2

mediun 8/4/2

Sans 2005 most every year is actually relatively quiet.

If anybody sees any mistakes let me know, actually I'm quite sure you will

[MiamiensisWx]

While this is good research, I believe that it is flawed. Unlike the 1960s, we name subtropical systems; thus, early-season storms may have been overlooked. Satellite estimates were not as precise, and we know that these estimates can be erroneously high or low. Old reconnaissance data could have used the wrong flight-level conversions. In addition, the time frame is too limited to form any conclusions. The vast majority of tropical cyclone history preceded 1950. Many other seasons likely featured multiple storms before July, and I see no reasons to doubt that these seasons were active, too.

Look at 1933, 1887, and 1908. While 1933 featured one storm before May, another system may have been overlooked. I believe that we cannot draw conclusions toward either viewpoint. Many active (and inactive) seasons featured storms before July. It is a mixed bag.

[dwg71]

I think that is what it proves more than anything, its hit or miss. Dont assume just because we have 2 storms before June 5th that we are in for a repeat of 04 or 05.

[MiamiensisWx]

I think that is what it proves more than anything, its hit or miss. Dont assume just because we have 2 storms before June 5th that we are in for a repeat of 04 or 05.

I definitely agree with this post, but 2004 wasn't exceptionally unusual. Many years have featured activity levels that were similar to 2004. The main anomaly was the amount of landfalls in the Southeast, Florida, and Gulf. 2005 was definitely a freak year, and we should not expect an identical outcome for every season (that is prognosticated to be active).

At the same time, the evidence substantially supports an above average year in the Atlantic for 2007. The synoptics do not resemble 2006 in any form.

[WeatherEmperor]

I think that is what it proves more than anything, its hit or miss. Dont assume just because we have 2 storms before June 5th that we are in for a repeat of 04 or 05.

I definitely agree with this post, but 2004 wasn't exceptionally unusual. Many years have featured activity levels that were similar to 2004. The main anomaly was the amount of landfalls in the Southeast, Florida, and Gulf. 2005 was definitely a freak year, and we should not expect an identical outcome for every season (that is prognosticated to be active).

At the same time, the evidence substantially supports an above average year in the Atlantic for 2007. The synoptics do not resemble 2006 in any form.

I am so happy that you brought up this point. I want to ask you. In 2006 we saw alot of troughs off the east coast which caused recurvature of many of the tropical cyclones that formed. What is the synoptic pattern for 2007 look like right now? If you dont mind, can you compare and contrast the synoptics for 2006 vs 2007.

<RICKY>

[MiamiensisWx]

I am so happy that you brought up this point. I want to ask you. In 2006 we saw alot of troughs off the east coast which caused recurvature of many of the tropical cyclones that formed. What is the synoptic pattern for 2007 look like right now? If you dont mind, can you compare and contrast the synoptics for 2006 vs 2007.

<RICKY>

Currently, we have been observing a stronger 500 mbar subtropical ridge. Unlike 2006, the higher heights have been displaced further west. If this pattern persists, we could observe some recurves east of the ridge, but the easterly flow should provide lower shear. Pressures are lower than 2006. The combination of ridging and favorable conditions should benefit some homegrown development. The current position of the ridge would increase the risk of landfalls along the Southeast and Gulf coasts.

In 2006, a strong monsoonal trough prevented Cape Verde development. It created dry mid-level conditions and strong low-level shear. These factors prevented convergence, kept waves from separating from the ITCZ, and reduced convection. It also increased SAL outbreaks, and the strong ridge in the eastern Atlantic worsened these conditions. Wave axes could not remain as well-defined; thus, the entire environment was quite inhibitive for Cape Verde development. The strong eastern Atlantic ridge enhanced a persistent tropospheric trough, and this resulted in the recurvature of several systems in the central Atlantic.

The strong eastern Atlantic ridge and monsoonal trough have not been prevalent in 2007. If these trends persist, wave axes could remain organized as they progress westward. In addition, we could observe lower MDR pressures. This would create a favorable convergence environment for convective persistence. The current pattern would suggest a stronger Bermuda ridge, and this would raise the possibility of threats for the Southeast and Gulf coasts. This would favor more homegrown development (ala 1995 and 2005). In a general sense, the current pattern does not resemble 2006 in any form.

[WeatherEmperor]

I am so happy that you brought up this point. I want to ask you. In 2006 we saw alot of troughs off the east coast which caused recurvature of many of the tropical cyclones that formed. What is the synoptic pattern for 2007 look like right now? If you dont mind, can you compare and contrast the synoptics for 2006 vs 2007.

<RICKY>

Currently, we have been observing a stronger 500 mbar subtropical ridge. Unlike 2006, the higher heights have been displaced further west. If this pattern persists, we could observe some recurves east of the ridge, but the easterly flow should provide lower shear. Pressures are lower than 2006. The combination of ridging and favorable conditions should benefit some homegrown development. The current position of the ridge would increase the risk of landfalls along the Southeast and Gulf coasts.

In 2006, a strong monsoonal trough prevented Cape Verde development. It created dry mid-level conditions and strong low-level shear. These factors prevented convergence, kept waves from separating from the ITCZ, and reduced convection. It also increased SAL outbreaks, and the strong ridge in the eastern Atlantic worsened these conditions. Wave axes could not remain as well-defined; thus, the entire environment was quite inhibitive for Cape Verde development. The strong eastern Atlantic ridge enhanced a persistent tropospheric trough, and this resulted in the recurvature of several systems in the central Atlantic.

The strong eastern Atlantic ridge and monsoonal trough have not been prevalent in 2007. If these trends persist, wave axes could remain organized as they progress westward. In addition, we could observe lower MDR pressures. This would create a favorable convergence environment for convective persistence. The current pattern would suggest a stronger Bermuda ridge, and this would raise the possibility of threats for the Southeast and Gulf coasts. This would favor more homegrown development (ala 1995 and 2005). In a general sense, the current pattern does not resemble 2006 in any form.

Oooh okay I understand now. Just in your own personal opinion, what do you think we will see in terms of bermuda high setup this season? I know its almost impossible to answer but in your thoughts, what do you think we will see?

<RICKY>

[MiamiensisWx]

Oooh okay I understand now. Just in your own personal opinion, what do you think we will see in terms of bermuda high setup this season? I know its almost impossible to answer but in your thoughts, what do you think we will see?

<RICKY>

Patterns are complex. They continually change throughout the course of several months. I agree that timing is the ultimate influence on the paths of tropical cyclones; thus, I believe that it is difficult to speculate on a general pattern trend. The timing of pattern changes is important if storms are active. If I were to take a guess, I would bet on more landfalls than 2006. Although I hope we are lucky, I deeply doubt that this will be the case for the United States.

[windstorm99]

The pattern over the last month or so has seen persistent trofiness which if continued well be good news for the united states.Also the bermuda has been in its normal location with no signs of a location similar to 04 and 05.

Here is part of jeff masters mention on steering currents in his june outlook.

The steering current pattern over the past few weeks has been much like 2006, with an active jet stream bringing many troughs of low pressure off the East Coast of the U.S. These troughs are frequent enough and strong enough to recurve any tropical storms of hurricanes that penetrate north of the Caribbean Sea. Steering current patterns are not predictable more than about two weeks in advance, and there is no telling if we are in for a repeat of the favorable 2006 steering current pattern that recurved every storm out to sea. It is encouraging to note that in 2006 the steering current pattern locked into place in late May and stayed that way for almost the entirety of the hurricane season. I am hopeful that this pattern will occur again this year, but there is no way of telling at this point.

www.Adrian's Weather.com

[wxmann_91]

One thing to think about - the drought over the SE. Drought begets drought. One part of why the SE may have been so dry, is the strong SE Ridge, courtesy of a fairly positive NAO that has been in place since last winter.

If this SE Ridge remains in place - areas like the East Coast may be spared, while the Caribbean and much of the Gulf Coast, and possibly Florida, could be under the gun.

[WeatherEmperor]

The pattern over the last month or so has seen persistent trofiness which if continued well be good news for the united states.Also the bermuda has been in its normal location with no signs of a location similar to 04 and 05.

Here is part of jeff masters mention on steering currents in his june outlook.

The steering current pattern over the past few weeks has been much like 2006, with an active jet stream bringing many troughs of low pressure off the East Coast of the U.S. These troughs are frequent enough and strong enough to recurve any tropical storms of hurricanes that penetrate north of the Caribbean Sea. Steering current patterns are not predictable more than about two weeks in advance, and there is no telling if we are in for a repeat of the favorable 2006 steering current pattern that recurved every storm out to sea. It is encouraging to note that in 2006 the steering current pattern locked into place in late May and stayed that way for almost the entirety of the hurricane season. I am hopeful that this pattern will occur again this year, but there is no way of telling at this point.

www.Adrian's Weather.com

That was going to be my next point. Last year in 2006 for much of the spring there was a ridge over the SE albeit not as strong as the ridge this year. However by the last week of May, the pattern changed that favored more cold fronts sweeping off the east coast and remained pretty much this way the entire hurricane season. This year in 2007 we have had a persistent ridge over the SE states for much of this spring, but for about a week or so we have seen more trofs move off the east coast. Having said all of that, are we possibly in the midst of a pattern change similar to what happened last year around the same time, or is it way too early to say for sure??

<RICKY>

[Ptarmigan]

I think that is what it proves more than anything, its hit or miss. Dont assume just because we have 2 storms before June 5th that we are in for a repeat of 04 or 05.

I definitely agree with this post, but 2004 wasn't exceptionally unusual. Many years have featured activity levels that were similar to 2004. The main anomaly was the amount of landfalls in the Southeast, Florida, and Gulf. 2005 was definitely a freak year, and we should not expect an identical outcome for every season (that is prognosticated to be active).

At the same time, the evidence substantially supports an above average year in the Atlantic for 2007. The synoptics do not resemble 2006 in any form.

2004 started in the end of July. It had a late start and 2004 was quite active in a short period with a weak El Nino.

[benny]

FYI - just passing stats.

Since 1950 there have been 11 years in which we had multiple storms prior to July 1st.
57,59,66,68,72,81,82,86,97,03,05

Average Activity for those years... 11/6/2

mediun 8/4/2

Sans 2005 most every year is actually relatively quiet.

If anybody sees any mistakes let me know, actually I'm quite sure you will

I don't think it is fair to categorize this year as resembling an El Nino year in any fashion. Thus I
would eliminate 1957, 72, 82, 86, 97 (all moderate or strong El Ninos). Your activity average numbers are considerably
higher without those quieter seasons.