Why I'm concerned about 2007 season

#1 Postby **jasons2k** » Thu Jun 14, 2007 11:41 am

This image speaks 1,000 words:

dwg71 · #2 Postby **dwg71** » Thu Jun 14, 2007 11:45 am

I seem to recall a lot of threads and emphasis put on warm SSTs last year about this time...

windnrain · #3 Postby **windnrain** » Thu Jun 14, 2007 12:01 pm

Yeah...

But there's no way you can argue that hot temperatures like that HELPS us. It can't be anything but bad. Last year we were fortunate. Can't count on that all the time.

#4 Postby **baygirl_1** » Thu Jun 14, 2007 12:23 pm

Impressive image. I recall one thing my Daddy taught me about tropical storms: one of their functions is to redistribute heat. It appears the waters in the Gulf are quite warm. That heat will not just dissipate by itself, I'm afraid. If/When something gets in there--whether it be now or later in the season-- that heat could be redistributed all over us. That is a scary thought!

#5 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Thu Jun 14, 2007 12:31 pm

baygirl_1 wrote:Impressive image. I recall one thing my Daddy taught me about tropical storms: one of their functions is to redistribute heat. It appears the waters in the Gulf are quite warm. That heat will not just dissipate by itself, I'm afraid. If/When something gets in there--whether it be now or later in the season-- that heat could be redistributed all over us. That is a scary thought!

Not trying to take away from the seriousness of your post, but when I read the text I have bolded I cracked up.

In all seriousness, it is a striking graphic and hopefully all of the necessary ingredients don't come together for something to get in there.

Frank2 · #6 Postby **Frank2** » Thu Jun 14, 2007 12:40 pm

Making a hurricane is like baking a cake - if all of the right ingredients aren't present, then, it's just not going to turn out correctly...

Even if the entire Gulf is at 90F, but, there is strong shear or very dry air present, then, the warm water means very little - as it didn't last season...

Mathias · #7 Postby **Mathias** » Thu Jun 14, 2007 12:44 pm

Well...I'm not in the mood for "cake" anyway.

#8 Postby **jasons2k** » Thu Jun 14, 2007 12:50 pm

Of course everything else has to come together, and I expect low shear & plenty of moist air this season. I laid out my thoughts on that back in May:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=94803

I'm just saying that it's only June and that's hot. Any storms that trek through this channel is bad news.

Frank2 · #9 Postby **Frank2** » Thu Jun 14, 2007 1:45 pm

Well, I can't say that I agree with there being low shear and plenty of moist air - that's not been the case so far this season. So far, the Gulf has seen very dry air, and, the shear in many areas has been high. As someone else noted here yesterday, the temps in the Eastern Atlantic are below normal for this time of year, so, once again everything needs to be working at the same time for something to form, or, once it forms, to continue as a viable system...

Stratosphere747 · #10 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Thu Jun 14, 2007 2:29 pm

I don't know Jason. That image seems a bit deceiving. The areas off the Texas and Louisiana coasts have not had enough time to warm that much. IMO this image better represents current SST's in the GOM.

*edit* Link for better view. https://www.navo.navy.mil/cgi-bin/graph ... 19/0-0-5/0

Cyclenall · #11 Postby **Cyclenall** » Thu Jun 14, 2007 3:59 pm

The Gulf of Mexico has been like that for the past 3-4 years now. It's possible it's like that every hurricane season as some say but it's commonly been boiling hot during the past few years (2006 - insane). If Ernesto got in there last year, I wonder what category he would have ended up being while the track was towards New Orleans.

Well, I can't say that I agree with there being low shear and plenty of moist air - that's not been the case so far this season. So far, the Gulf has seen very dry air, and, the shear in many areas has been high.

It's June. I also disagree that the air has been very dry so far (it was very dry in 2006), it's not too bad for this June.

Extremeweatherguy · #12 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Jun 14, 2007 4:00 pm

here is a link showing actual water temps. off the Texas coast...

http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/dsdt/cwtg/wgof.html

It is 88.2º at Galveston right now! That is quite warm considering the average this time of year is just 83º!

Stratosphere747 · #13 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Thu Jun 14, 2007 4:18 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:here is a link showing actual water temps. off the Texas coast...

http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/dsdt/cwtg/wgof.html

It is 88.2º at Galveston right now! That is quite warm considering the average this time of year is just 83º!

Remember that is at the hottest part of the day. I would assume the 24hr average is closer to 85 or so.. Still above average though. Also I'd be curios to know how long they have been keeping averages at some of these buoys across the GOM.

Jagno · #14 Postby **Jagno** » Thu Jun 14, 2007 5:11 pm

Mathias wrote:Well...I'm not in the mood for "cake" anyway.

Me neither.......... but it's so hot ,ice cream would do.

All of that heat is expoding into some massive afternoon storms in our area with what seems like a daily occurance.

mikey · #15 Postby **mikey** » Thu Jun 14, 2007 7:00 pm

Much ado about nothing. SST's are important but they are not the end all to be all.

#16 Postby **BigA** » Thu Jun 14, 2007 7:04 pm

mikey wrote:Much ado about nothing. SST's are important but they are not the end all to be all.

Although it is true that if other conditions are unfavorable, SSTs are not very important, if the other criteria for intensification are met, a couple of degree difference in ocean temperatures can be the difference between categories of intensity, especially if the system stays over the water for a long time.

Ptarmigan · #17 Postby **Ptarmigan** » Thu Jun 14, 2007 8:43 pm

SST is not the only thing. Also, it depends on how the clouds and temperature are. Colder tops and higher clouds mean a hurricane can get stronger in lower SST.

#18 Postby **Air Force Met** » Thu Jun 14, 2007 8:57 pm

SST's mean very little. It's all about heat content. If all other ingredients are equal...the TCHP has the capability of taking a Cat 2 and turning it into a Cat 5.

So...with that in mind...let's compare years...at this current date:

June 13th, 2007

June 13th, 2006

June 13th, 2005

You can see the head start in TCHP we had in 2005. We are not even close to that now...but slightly ahead of 2006...especially in the NW Caribbean and SE GOM.

miamicanes177 · #19 Postby **miamicanes177** » Thu Jun 14, 2007 9:01 pm

Air Force Met wrote:You can see the head start in TCHP we had in 2005. We are not even close to that now...but slightly ahead of 2006...especially in the NW Caribbean and SE GOM.

Remember that 2006 was the second warmest Atlantic ocean ever on record. 2005 is the record holder. So the point is 2007 being close or slightly warmer than 2006(2nd warmest ever) is extremely impressive.

#20 Postby **Air Force Met** » Thu Jun 14, 2007 9:09 pm

miamicanes177 wrote:
Air Force Met wrote:You can see the head start in TCHP we had in 2005. We are not even close to that now...but slightly ahead of 2006...especially in the NW Caribbean and SE GOM.
Remember that 2006 was the second warmest Atlantic ocean ever on record. 2005 is the record holder. So the point is 2007 being close or slightly warmer than 2006(2nd warmest ever) is extremely impressive.

I don't put too much stock in records....especially given accurate measurement of the oceanic basins as a whole (i.e. the Atlantic) have only been available since the later part of the 20th century. Given the Atlantic was in a cooling trend during most of the observable past (when we got accurate obs from Satellite)...and given we just came out of the cooling cycle 12 years ago...it doesn't mean much. :lol:

It's all about keeping perspective. There's a reason the Vikings called it "Greenland."

Why I'm concerned about 2007 season

Why I'm concerned about 2007 season

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