Atlantic INVEST 94L
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
The main energy with this system (a large cluster of thunderstorms) is now southeast of Miami and moving northeast - the few showers that are left behind near Cozumel are just associated with the tail end of the trough...
Last edited by Frank2 on Sat Jun 16, 2007 9:02 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145930
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
NDG wrote:wxman57 wrote:hial2 wrote:TheRingo wrote:some convection east of the peninsula. Is that just thunderstorms?
The convection is developing on the trof..on the atmospheric weakness
What you're seeing is the very top of the wave axis passing to the south of the Yucatan Channel. As the wave axis moves westward at 10-15 mph it causes enhanced lift just to its east. Thus, the small patch of thunderstorms in the Yucatan Channel. But the wave isn't hanging around. Once it passes, there won't be anything left to sustain the thunderstorms. It would take the development of a large, organized mass of thunderstorms developing before the wave axis passes for a chance of TC development. Should such a concentrated mass of storms develop, it could generate inflow/convergence after the wave axis passes. But that's not very likely given the current disorganization of the shower activity and fast movement of the wave. Time is running out.
I agree, surface and mid level ridge is moving in fairly fast, I'm surpriesed they still have it as invest.
No more 94L. http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 1131
- Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2006 10:53 pm
-
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 72
- Joined: Thu Sep 11, 2003 10:11 pm
- Location: Jupiter, FL
-
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 11430
- Age: 35
- Joined: Sat Dec 24, 2005 9:00 pm
- Location: School: Florida State University (Tallahassee, FL) Home: St. Petersburg, Florida
- Contact:
This mass of weather moving NE, I suppose its got a chance (area in Bahamas). I personally favor the smaller area of storms at the end of that same trough. This small area in the NW Carribean (very near the Yucatan Penninsula) would seem to have more stable and favorable conditions aloft for development. Here the latest visible loop.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html
0 likes
- Evil Jeremy
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5463
- Age: 32
- Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
- Location: Los Angeles, CA
- wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 22997
- Age: 67
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Berwick Bay wrote:This mass of weather moving NE, I suppose its got a chance (area in Bahamas). I personally favor the smaller area of storms at the end of that same trough. This small area in the NW Carribean (very near the Yucatan Penninsula) would seem to have more stable and favorable conditions aloft for development. Here the latest visible loop.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html
You're certainly correct that the place to watch is in the Yucatan Channel, not in the Bahamas. But the flare-up there is due to a transitory tropical wave passintto the south. The wave axis will be long one in 6-12 hours, leaving more stable air in its wake. Without any organization, the thunderstorms in the Yucatan Channel should diminish as the wave moves on by this evening. There is a slight chance that the storms could get concentrated enough to generate their own inflow/convergence region associated with that weak surface trof. If that occurs, then it would be the first step toward TC development. Chances of that still appear low, however. I don't think the instability will remain over the NW Caribbean Sea long enough.
0 likes
- StormTracker
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2903
- Age: 59
- Joined: Thu Jun 29, 2006 6:06 am
- Location: Quail Heights(Redlands), FL.
- vbhoutex
- Storm2k Executive
- Posts: 29113
- Age: 73
- Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2002 11:31 pm
- Location: Cypress, TX
- Contact:
ABNT20 KNHC 161514TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL1130 AM EDT SAT JUN 16 2007 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEAACROSS CUBA...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE BAHAMAS ARE ASSOCIATED WITHA TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOTFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$FORECASTER AVILA
0 likes
- windstorm99
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1578
- Age: 47
- Joined: Sat May 26, 2007 8:10 am
- Location: Miami, Florida
- Contact:
wxman57 wrote:Berwick Bay wrote:This mass of weather moving NE, I suppose its got a chance (area in Bahamas). I personally favor the smaller area of storms at the end of that same trough. This small area in the NW Carribean (very near the Yucatan Penninsula) would seem to have more stable and favorable conditions aloft for development. Here the latest visible loop.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html
You're certainly correct that the place to watch is in the Yucatan Channel, not in the Bahamas. But the flare-up there is due to a transitory tropical wave passintto the south. The wave axis will be long one in 6-12 hours, leaving more stable air in its wake. Without any organization, the thunderstorms in the Yucatan Channel should diminish as the wave moves on by this evening. There is a slight chance that the storms could get concentrated enough to generate their own inflow/convergence region associated with that weak surface trof. If that occurs, then it would be the first step toward TC development. Chances of that still appear low, however. I don't think the instability will remain over the NW Caribbean Sea long enough.
That's the area that had the drop last night in pressure.Shear looks lite for the most part in the area have too see if the TS continue for a bit longer.
0 likes
- wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 22997
- Age: 67
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Not really worth waiting for, as expected:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SAT JUN 16 2007
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS CUBA...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE BAHAMAS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FORECASTER AVILA
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SAT JUN 16 2007
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS CUBA...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE BAHAMAS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FORECASTER AVILA
0 likes
- windstorm99
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1578
- Age: 47
- Joined: Sat May 26, 2007 8:10 am
- Location: Miami, Florida
- Contact:
I can't wait for the graphical TWO from the NHC on july the 15th.
Example of what its going to look like....
You can read about more here.
Example of what its going to look like....

You can read about more here.
0 likes
- wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 22997
- Age: 67
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Recurve wrote:Thanks WXman for that explanation. Is that chart publicly available, can you post a link?
I logged into my workstation a the office and made it using GARP/Gempak then took a screenshot and posted it. Just one of the benefits of being a meteorologist - you get all the data you want without having to hunt it down online.

0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: Bobd33, Cpv17, Google Adsense [Bot], wileytheartist and 98 guests