Atlantic INVEST 94L

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Frank2
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#281 Postby Frank2 » Sat Jun 16, 2007 9:01 am

The main energy with this system (a large cluster of thunderstorms) is now southeast of Miami and moving northeast - the few showers that are left behind near Cozumel are just associated with the tail end of the trough...
Last edited by Frank2 on Sat Jun 16, 2007 9:02 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#282 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 16, 2007 9:01 am

NDG wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
hial2 wrote:
TheRingo wrote:some convection east of the peninsula. Is that just thunderstorms?


The convection is developing on the trof..on the atmospheric weakness


What you're seeing is the very top of the wave axis passing to the south of the Yucatan Channel. As the wave axis moves westward at 10-15 mph it causes enhanced lift just to its east. Thus, the small patch of thunderstorms in the Yucatan Channel. But the wave isn't hanging around. Once it passes, there won't be anything left to sustain the thunderstorms. It would take the development of a large, organized mass of thunderstorms developing before the wave axis passes for a chance of TC development. Should such a concentrated mass of storms develop, it could generate inflow/convergence after the wave axis passes. But that's not very likely given the current disorganization of the shower activity and fast movement of the wave. Time is running out.


I agree, surface and mid level ridge is moving in fairly fast, I'm surpriesed they still have it as invest.


No more 94L. http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi
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#283 Postby Cyclone1 » Sat Jun 16, 2007 9:16 am

Uh... it's still on the main site... http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
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#284 Postby miamicanes177 » Sat Jun 16, 2007 9:40 am

thunderstorm activity has increased the past several hours in the northwestern caribbean
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#285 Postby BigA » Sat Jun 16, 2007 9:47 am

There has definitely been a moderate increase in convection between the Yucatan and Western Cuba during the past couple of hours. Let us see if this convection persists and grows, or whether it is a short-lived phenomenon.
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#286 Postby Chigger_Lopez » Sat Jun 16, 2007 9:48 am

Here is my amateur guess, but I think that the area right off Cozumel is what we are looking at, right? That is the area that has the chance of developement and it is starting to get some convection. We shall see.
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#287 Postby JonathanBelles » Sat Jun 16, 2007 9:50 am

Image
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#288 Postby Recurve » Sat Jun 16, 2007 9:51 am

Goodbye 94L. We hardly knew ye.

Pouring rain here as the moisture plume streams toward the Bahamas.
This has been the rainiest week in the Upper Keys in years.
We are going to have the mother of all mosquito outbeaks in the next few days.
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#289 Postby Berwick Bay » Sat Jun 16, 2007 9:59 am

This mass of weather moving NE, I suppose its got a chance (area in Bahamas). I personally favor the smaller area of storms at the end of that same trough. This small area in the NW Carribean (very near the Yucatan Penninsula) would seem to have more stable and favorable conditions aloft for development. Here the latest visible loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html
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#290 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sat Jun 16, 2007 10:02 am

the 11:30 TWO should be intresting.
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#291 Postby wxman57 » Sat Jun 16, 2007 10:17 am

Berwick Bay wrote:This mass of weather moving NE, I suppose its got a chance (area in Bahamas). I personally favor the smaller area of storms at the end of that same trough. This small area in the NW Carribean (very near the Yucatan Penninsula) would seem to have more stable and favorable conditions aloft for development. Here the latest visible loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html


You're certainly correct that the place to watch is in the Yucatan Channel, not in the Bahamas. But the flare-up there is due to a transitory tropical wave passintto the south. The wave axis will be long one in 6-12 hours, leaving more stable air in its wake. Without any organization, the thunderstorms in the Yucatan Channel should diminish as the wave moves on by this evening. There is a slight chance that the storms could get concentrated enough to generate their own inflow/convergence region associated with that weak surface trof. If that occurs, then it would be the first step toward TC development. Chances of that still appear low, however. I don't think the instability will remain over the NW Caribbean Sea long enough.
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#292 Postby StormTracker » Sat Jun 16, 2007 10:18 am

Evil Jeremy wrote:the 11:30 TWO should be intresting.
My thoughts exactly!!! I'm curious to see how this all pans out with all the brains at work here vs. the experts! It's definitely burning a lot of brain cells! :lol:
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#293 Postby vbhoutex » Sat Jun 16, 2007 10:20 am

ABNT20 KNHC 161514TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL1130 AM EDT SAT JUN 16 2007 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEAACROSS CUBA...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE BAHAMAS ARE ASSOCIATED WITHA TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOTFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$FORECASTER AVILA
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#294 Postby windstorm99 » Sat Jun 16, 2007 10:24 am

Nothing surpriseing with the TWO here as wxman57 stated the ULL is on its way out takeing most of the energy with it.Unfortuantely most of the rain missed florida.Adrian
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#295 Postby Javlin » Sat Jun 16, 2007 10:25 am

wxman57 wrote:
Berwick Bay wrote:This mass of weather moving NE, I suppose its got a chance (area in Bahamas). I personally favor the smaller area of storms at the end of that same trough. This small area in the NW Carribean (very near the Yucatan Penninsula) would seem to have more stable and favorable conditions aloft for development. Here the latest visible loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html


You're certainly correct that the place to watch is in the Yucatan Channel, not in the Bahamas. But the flare-up there is due to a transitory tropical wave passintto the south. The wave axis will be long one in 6-12 hours, leaving more stable air in its wake. Without any organization, the thunderstorms in the Yucatan Channel should diminish as the wave moves on by this evening. There is a slight chance that the storms could get concentrated enough to generate their own inflow/convergence region associated with that weak surface trof. If that occurs, then it would be the first step toward TC development. Chances of that still appear low, however. I don't think the instability will remain over the NW Caribbean Sea long enough.


That's the area that had the drop last night in pressure.Shear looks lite for the most part in the area have too see if the TS continue for a bit longer.
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#296 Postby wxman57 » Sat Jun 16, 2007 10:27 am

Another graphic to take a look at the NW Caribbean. I see that the trof axis continues to weaken and pressures are rising - up to 1013.3mb at the 20N/80W buoy now. Rising pressure, wave axis departing, upper low gone - none is a good sign of TC development.

Image
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#297 Postby wxman57 » Sat Jun 16, 2007 10:33 am

Not really worth waiting for, as expected:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SAT JUN 16 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS CUBA...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE BAHAMAS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

FORECASTER AVILA
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#298 Postby Recurve » Sat Jun 16, 2007 10:34 am

Thanks WXman for that explanation. Is that chart publicly available, can you post a link?
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#299 Postby windstorm99 » Sat Jun 16, 2007 10:39 am

I can't wait for the graphical TWO from the NHC on july the 15th.

Example of what its going to look like....

Image

You can read about more here.
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#300 Postby wxman57 » Sat Jun 16, 2007 10:42 am

Recurve wrote:Thanks WXman for that explanation. Is that chart publicly available, can you post a link?


I logged into my workstation a the office and made it using GARP/Gempak then took a screenshot and posted it. Just one of the benefits of being a meteorologist - you get all the data you want without having to hunt it down online. ;-)
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